$1,000,000 GRADE 2 CALUMET TURF CUP AT KENTUCKY DOWNS
The Lead:
The short, but sweet Kentucky Downs all-turf meeting hits its marquee program Saturday with a five-stakes bonanza. The consecutive stakes will be on Races 6-10, including the featured $1 million Calumet Turf Cup as the headline attraction in Race 9. The Turf Sprint in Race 8 also boasts a seven-figure purse.
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Field Depth:
Grade 1 winners include defending champion ARKLOW, CHANNEL CAT and 2019 race victor ZULU ALPHA. BREAKPOINT was a Chilean Group 1 winner. TIDE OF THE SEA has won at the Grade 3 level. IMPERADOR and GLYNN COUNTY are Grade 1-placed. Fair to say ARKLOW, CHANNEL CAT and ZULU ALPHA have held the classiest company lines over time.
Pace:
At a mile and one-half at Kentucky Downs, you don't expect pace to be a tell-tale factor. TIDE OF THE SEA, CHANNEL CAT and EPIC BROMANCE are the most likely pacemakers. They should provide a fair tempo for the trip.
Our Eyes:
The horse-for-course nature of Kentucky Downs can't be understated. The configuration, dips and rises, and lush, unused grass year-'round make for a very unique surface and trip. A starting focus on past local results should be at the fore of analysis.
Defending Turf Cup winner ARKLOW obviously checks the affinity boxes. His 3 Kentucky Downs appearances have netted 2 wins and a runner-up, all in this very race. He sandwiched a 2019 second between victories in 2018 and 2020. While he's just 1-for-3 at age 7 this year, it's reasonable to question if he's the same horse he's been. But consider his 2 losses at Monmouth and Del Mar, short-cropped, speed-friendly turf courses over which he made belated runs to not factor in the results. It's quite possible, given his past struggle at Monmouth, that his 2021 results aren't as bad as they look on paper. Remember, he snapped an 0-5 losing streak when winning this race a year ago. He remains chiefly the one to beat.
ZULU ALPHA won this race in 2019 and was third-best to ARKLOW a year ago as the 4-5 favorite. He's struggled in 2 starts this year at Arlington. That he had run well at AP in the past may hint that ZULU ALPHA's 2021 downturn may be more self-inflicted than what we project from ARKLOW's recent form. Of the 2 past champions of the Kentucky Downs Turf Cup, the edge here goes to ARKLOW. Mike Maker will send out four other entrants in this spot: TIDE OF THE SEA, BLUEGRASS PARKWAY, AJOURNEYTOFREEDOM and GLYNN COUNTY. Both TIDE OF THE SEA and GLYNN COUNTY won in their only trips over this course last year while working through their conditions. At this distance and off recent success in Chicago, GLYNN COUNTY appeals most to this eye.
2018 Dueling Grounds Derby winner CHANNEL CAT also is 1-1 on this course. He'll carry the Calumet colors in the race Brad Kelley's operation sponsors. The 6-year-olds June win in the Grade 1 Manhattan picked up some form flattery this summer at Saratoga when runner-up Gufo came back to win the Grade 1 Sword Dancer. This $1.4 million earner should be forwardly placed and in the hunt through the stretch.
Most Certain Exotics Contender:
ARKLOW hasn't missed the exacta in 3 starts in this very same race.
Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
FANTASIOSO is a longshot we've been chasing since Keeneland in April and he's run solid from far back in each try except the speed-friendly United Nations at Monmouth. Kentucky Downs might provide him the best opportunity to lengthen and finish. Turf ace Umberto Rispoli picks up the mount and may be his best fit yet.
Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
We'll aim for a third straight score in this space. $75 exacta ARKLOW over FANTASIOSO. $25 exacta ARKLOW over GLYNN COUNTY.
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