The Lead:
Kentucky's biggest racing card so far in 2024 comes Saturday at Turfway Park where Triple Crown hopefuls compete in the Jeff Ruby and the 5-stakes undercard includes the older horses in the $300,000 Kentucky Cup Classic. The Kentucky Cup Classic is Race 10 and is part of a Bayou-Bluegrass Pick 5 wager that matches stakes from Turfway and Fair Grounds on Saturday.
Field Depth:
Grade 1 winner ATONE has the field's highest distinction, while Grade 2 winners include WOLFIE'S DYNAGHOST and VERSTAPPEN. The Grade 3 winners are CELLIST, WENTRU and KITODAN. ATONE has kept the strongest company lines overall with VERSTAPPEN clearly second in that discussion.
Pace:
WOLFIE'S DYNAGHOST and wide-drawn FUNTASTIC AGAIN are the clear-cut early speed in the Kentucky Cup Classic. How fast they go, and if a third or fourth member of the field enters the early fray, will determine what's left in the tank. You don't want to be a deep, deep closer trying to catch two quality speed horses.
Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.
#1-SURLY FURIOUS: Two-time stakes winner at the meet brings obvious local credentials to his longest career test. Finished with as much interest going long as short, so expect a ground-saving trip with every chance to factor in the outcome.
#2-VERSTAPPEN: Runner-up in this race last year when drawn wide, the trip here should be much easier and there's no denial his 3: 2-1-0 local record stands out. His recent missteps were in 12-furlong marathons; expect this 9-furlong test to be much more to his liking; a major win chance.
#3-WOLIFIE'S DYNAGHOST: Defending Kentucky Cup Classic winner won essentially wire-to-wire last year with an easy pace. The tempo figures somewhat tougher this year with Funtastic Again mixing it up early. He's one of the most consistent and effective synthetic performers in racing today, so you'll have to beat him to win it.
#4-HARLAN ESTATE: Blinkers go on this Fair Grounds raider who has been off form recently and ran poorly in his only prior Turfway attempt, sixth in last year's Dust Commander Stakes when never a big threat. Will need a form reversal.
#5-CELLIST: Among his 10 straight losses are a pair of runner-ups in the local Prairie Bayou Stakes by less than a combined length. You may not trust him on the win end, but he should get one of the first runs on the speed from just off the pace with a good draw and aggressive pilot in Luis Saez for the first time.
#6-WENTRU: Eighth here at big odds a year ago, he's made only 1 start since then and didn't show any sign of life in that one. His former claiming form did include some early speed, so if he shows that again, his impact could be on the pace only.
#7-CURLIN'S MALIBU: Only win for his trainer so far in 2024 came with this gelding in a Charles Down allowance last out. A former $6,250 claim just 13 months ago, he's biting off more than he's likely capable of and hasn't run on a synthetic surface to date.
#8-ATONE: Millionaire earner on turf began his career with 2 synthetic starts in his first 3 races (including a win at Arlington) in the summer of 2020. Since winning the lucrative Pegasus World Cup Turf 14 months ago, he's lost 8 straight facing tougher company than this in most of those bids. The 9F distance has been his best trip on turf, so we'll see if that translates to the Tapeta. Sire Into Mischief gets a modest 10% winners at Turfway over the last 3 seasons, according to Betmix stats.
#9-TIO MAGICO: Santa Anita invader for California's top turf barn in Phil D'Amado, he'll partner with local ace pilot Luan Machado. Inconsistent sort's best puts him in the discussion, typically coming in races that have a hot pace. If you think the speeds here will crank things up, give him a longer look. If you think they'll control the tempo somewhat, his chances wane based on how he's run on turf. Betmix data shows Uncle Mo's offspring just over 8% winners in TP routes the past 3 seasons.
#10-COUNTY FINAL: Connections aside, it's hard to look at his 6: 0-0-0 record in stakes races and feel confidence. Has found a home on Tapeta at Gulfstream this winter for high-octane trainer Saffie Joseph Jr and lures the renowned Frankie Dettori to ride. Should be better options at better prices, but not impossible for a piece.
#11-KITOGAN: Lacks any early foot whatsoever and will need this race to fall apart to factor late. Needs to make up 8-11 lengths on several of his rematched rivals in the Kentucky Cup Classic from his recent starts.
#12-FUNTASTIC AGAIN: Last year's Jeff Ruby pacesetter and third-place finisher will have to overcome an outside draw under capable local pilot Gerardo Corrales. The Wesley Ward trainee has started just once since last year's Preakness undercard and comfortably won a local allowance to set him up for this. His 4: 3-0-1 Turfway mark in tow, it's about how far he'll run and how tough the pace may be vs. Wolfie's Dynaghost.
Most Certain Exotics Contender:
WOLFIE'S DYNAGHOST, even if he takes pace heat, can be counted on for the superfecta with confidence given his prior synthetic form.
Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
CELLIST has been 12-1 and 10-1 in his pair of local stakes runners-up and should be a solid price again with a shot at the minor awards.
Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$5 trifecta key VERSTAPPEN over WOLFIE'S DYNAGHOST, SURLY FURIOUS, CELLIST and FUNTASTIC AGAIN ($60). $10 exacta box VERSTAPPEN and WOLFIE'S DYNAGHOST ($20). $20 win VERSTAPPEN.
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