The Lead:
The headline races to Prairie Meadows’ Iowa Festival of Racing share the Saturday night marquee. The Cornhusker, Iowa Sprint and Iowa Derby are part of a 10-race card that gets underway at 7 pm ET. The $250,000 Iowa Derby goes as Race 7 and will be our focus. Horseplayers at 1/ST BET and Xpressbet enjoy 10X 1/ST Rewards Points on all wagers for Prairie Meadows on Saturday.
Field Depth:
DESERT GATE is a Grade 3 winner and Grade 1-placed. He’s clearly held the best running lines over time. Stakes winners include CRUPPER and J J GREY, while THE HELL WE DID is Grade 3-placed.
Pace:
DESERT GATE would be most committed to the front likely in a field of horses with pace versatility. Inside-drawn runners could be used for more speed, while the bulk of the lineup is made up of horses who want to be in the front third of the field early if possible. This track plays to speed and you rarely benefit from being far back, even with a hot pace.
Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.
1-THE HELL WE DID: Talented brother to Senor Buscador disappointed in the Preakness when farther back than expected. That style won’t work at Prairie Meadows, and aggressive rider Ramon Vazquez likely puts him more into the race to secure the rail draw. Distance remains the question, however, but a top effort can land him in the exotics.
2-CRUPPER: Similar pace versatility and Preakness disappointment as The Hell We Did, their stories don’t veer much. Capable on a flashback to his Oaklawn stakes victory of making some impact here. Best chance is to carve out a pressing trip from just off the leader. Not as busy on the post-Preakness workout tab as The Hell We Did, but sharpened Jun. 25 in Louisville.
3-MAXIMUM EFFORT: Steve Asmussen’s record 5 Iowa Derby wins included Magnitude’s return score last summer as well as a 2017 victory with Hence when teamed with jockey Mike Smith. The veteran rider tries for the first time aboard this 7-race maiden who was third in the Texas Derby behind a pair of Iowa Derby return rivals. Maxfield colt loses ground to the leader in the final call each time, explaining his maiden status. Not for me.
4-J J GREY: While a 9: 4-0-0 record might lead us to think he’s all-or-nothing, closer inspection sees the Kenny McPeek trainee as 3: 3-0-0 in 2-turn dirt routes like the Iowa Derby. Smashing 104 and 100 BRIS late pace figures in his last 2 starts, including a local prep win in the Prairie Mile, give a lot of confidence for backing this Fair Grounds and Oaklawn allowance winner. The pick.
5-DESERT GATE: The 9-5 morning line favorite obviously is the most credentialed runner in the field and trainer Bob Baffert’s 4 Iowa Derby wins are second-most to Steve Asmussen’s 5. Owners Pegram, Watson & Weitman have taken the back roads this year to more than $300,000 in seasonal earnings via Santa Anita, Oaklawn, Lone Star, Thistledown and now Iowa. Back 3 weeks after tiring in the 9-furlong Ohio Derby, he’s been a modest finisher routing, even in victory in the Texas Derby not visually impressive or by the numbers (86 BRIS late pace figure). Inclined to try and beat him Saturday. Note: Cross-entered in the Indiana Derby at Horseshoe Indianapolis.
6-OUTMATCH: Local sprinter gets the class and distance test in one deep dive. One-turn closer is difficult to project in the pace scenario under Elvin Gonzalez, who navigated Iowa Derby success in 2022 with local 11-1 upsetter Ain’t Life Grand. Pedigree doesn’t bed for the distance but finished well enough going shorter to have earned a shot. Prefer others.
7-BRICKLIN: In 5 races around 2 turns, he’s lost margin to the winner in 4 of those, including disappointments at 6-5 and 2-1 odds in stakes company. Has some apparent talent but disheartening stamina leans more to his questionable damside pedigree than his classic-winning sire Nyquist. Note: Cross-entered in the Indiana Derby at Horseshoe Indianapolis and may fit better there as 1 of his 2 lifetime victories came over that surface last year.
8-CANNED HEAT: The Prairie Mile runner-up was second-best late to J J Grey last out over 110 yards shorter in distance. There’s no shortage of pedigree here to get the trip, though interestingly this one sprinted 9 times in 11 starts. J J Grey worked twice to his 1 drill since the Prairie Mile, but this horse historically hasn’t done much clockwork in the morning for Jesse Oberlander. Barn is 2-45 on the year coming into the week and difficult to project getting all the candy Saturday.
9-CHAD ALLAN: The field’s likely only true closer around 2 turns, expect jockey Alfredo Triana, Jr. to take him back off the pace from the opening bell and try to save ground behind the field. Second to Crupper and Desert Gate in separate stakes bids, he’s also dropped different decisions to The Hell We Did and Bricklin in the overnight ranks. He’ll get 8-10 pounds in relief from recent starts and benefits if they go fast; but deeper closers rarely find success on this racetrack. Underneath at best.
Most Likely Exotics Contender:
J J GREY has a win over the track, the best finishing figures in the lineup and has yet to be beaten around 2 turns on dirt.
Best Longshot Contender:
CRUPPER at 8-1 morning line is the most appealing of the prices. He fits better here than the Preakness, obviously, and isn’t afraid to fight in a race loaded with similar styles.
Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$80 win J J GREY. $10 exacta part-wheel J J GREY over THE HELL WE DID and CRUPPER ($20).
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