The Lead:
Three stakes fill the marquee Saturday at Laurel Park, culminating in Race 9 with top regional older horses going 1 mile in the Harrison E. Johnson Memorial. The lead-ins include the $75,000 Not For Love and $75,000 Conniver for Maryland-bred sprinters and make up an all-stakes pick three in Races 7-9.
Field Depth:
Grade 2 winner DOUBLE CROWN is joined by Grade 3 winner MAGIC MICHAEL in a field of 7 that also includes stakes winners NIMITZ CLASS, who is Grade 3 placed, as well as DOLLARIZATION and IT'S SIZZLING TIME. The strongest company lines belong to NIMITZ CLASS and DOUBLE CROWN over the past year-plus and they both carry a field-high 126 pounds.
Pace:
NIMITZ CLASS and DOLLARIZATION figure to provide most of the pace in a race that shouldn't cook very fast. DOLLARIZATION hasn't shown sprint speed, but the stretch-out some in trip should put him more forward that his dash bids. The second-wire finish line in the Laurel races at 1 mile will test stretch stamina, but you won't want to be too far back behind this modest pace.
Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.
#1-SHAFT'S BULLET: Strong-finishing allowance miler has won half of his 8 starts for a jockey-trainer combo that's a dynamite 5-for-11 in limited tandem bids. Favored in 4 straight, but should offer more value on the class rise and appears capable in his first stakes attempt.
#2-NIMITZ CLASS: The defending champ in this race was a 6-1/4 length winner here a year ago when in his career-top form. But he's won only 1 of his last 7 and hasn't fired his best in 2 starts since changing barns to George Weaver, albeit facing tougher competition in that last pair. The pace scenario looks favorable for him to get back as a serious threat.
#3-DOLLARIZATION: Tim Kreiser has had some big-time sprinters from his Penn National base over the years, think Fabulous Strike among others, and this one raided Pimlico to win the 6-furlong Lite the Fuse Stakes in September. The additional distance will be a question, but the lack of heated early pressure expected will give him every chance to stay in the hunt. His 1-for-12 win mark in his last dozen is hard to trust on top.
#4 IT'S SIZZLING TIME: Deep closer pulled 11-1 upset in the John B. Campbell last out over a 2-turn trip and furlong farther than this. The Johnson will be a totally different ballgame, and a modest early pace really works against his style. His last 2 wins at 34-1 and 11-1 means he doesn't owe you anything if you've liked him to this point.
#5 MAGIC MICHAEL: Marathon success in the '21 Greenwood Cup at Parx, a race he was runner-up in the following year as well, doesn't necessarily correspond to what this 7-year-old has become of late. He's been a solid closer in Laurel 1-turn miles and has consistently come with his run on fast tracks. Hard to outright toss a horse for Jamie Ness given his win rate, and he's 27% when teamed with local star pilot Jaime Rodriguez.
#6 DOUBLE CROWN: Veteran can push ever-so-close to millionaire status with a win Saturday, and in doing so improve on last year's second-place finish in this race to Nimitz Class. He's won just 1 of his last 8 and trainer Ray Ginter has been cold at the meet (2-for-26 coming into the week). The '22 Grade 2 Kelso winner has been known to follow up poor efforts with quick improvement, so his lackluster Stymie performance last time isn't a dealbreaker if you like him. He's only 1-for-10 at the mile trip, which is of some note.
#7 ADERO: Top Parx trainer John Servis brings this one to Maryland for a second visit, running second in a Pimlico allowance last May. Adero did win a 1-turn mile at Aqueduct, but most of his success has been around a couple of bends. He has some tactical ability and should sit a decent trip here from a pressing, outside position. This will be a step up in class for him, however.
Most Certain Exotics Contender:
NIMITZ CLASS has a pace edge, class edge and strong marks over the track and distance.
Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
IT'S SIZZLING TIME likely can't win at this short of a trip and pace set-up, but his longshot propensity to outrun his odds and current strong form fits the bill.
Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$70 win NIMITZ CLASS. $10 exacta part-wheel NIMITZ CLASS with SHAFT'S BULLET, DOLLARIZATION and IT'S SIZZLING TIME ($30).
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