The Lead:
The second leg of the Florida Sire Stakes series stretches the 2-year-old sprinters to 7 furlongs this Saturday at Gulfstream Park. The Susan's Girl division for fillies will be Race 8 on the card, while our spotlight falls on the colts and geldings in the Affirmed in Race 11. Fourth and Central captured the Dr. Fager to open the series for the boys, but that one has been sidelined from the workout tab since September 24 and the door opens to a big cast of 11 that's ready to take the divisional lead among the Florida-breds.
Horseplayers at Xpressbet and 1/ST BET can take advantage of the up to $10 money-back special on win bets in the two FSS stakes on Saturday at Gulfstream (if your win bet finishes second or third). The Affirmed is also part of the 10X 1/ST Rewards Point promo on the Sunset Pick 6 wager that ties the final 3 Gulfstream and final 3 Santa Anita races daily.
Field Depth:
CAMIGOL is Grade 3 stakes-placed, while listed stakes-placed runners include SQUIRE and TRELAWNY. STRATEGIC RISK has kept the strongest company lines while dropping out of a pair of Saratoga Grade 3 stakes.
Pace:
The only of the 11 here to make the early lead last out was WOOTUN, while CAMIGOL may be most likely to apply pressure from the outset. STRATEGIC RISK may hustle from the fence and notably did win wire-to-wire locally before heading to Saratoga.
Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.
#1-STRATEGIC RISK: Local debut winner returns home after humbling tries at Saratoga vs. tougher. Only workout showing at the training center and his Gulfstream rider Edgard Zayas doesn't get the return mount. Mixed vibes on the Mark Casse trainee.
#2-HE'S MY UNCLE: Third-start maiden showed modest improvement in the second start and will need another move forward. No match for Micanopy in their Sept. 13 head-to-head.
#3-SQUIRE: Top early juvenile on the grounds won an April 18 dirt dash and was a good second at 4-5 in the Royal Palm Juvenile right after. But neither return race in the FSS Dr. Fager or Hollywood Beach Stakes gives me a sense that he wants the additional distance.
#4-TRELAWNY: Connections and dam have had FSS series success in the past with a filly who made it to the Breeders' Cup, and this colt absolutely fits the bill Saturday. Fourth in the open-company Proud Man Stakes and a solid third in the FSS Dr. Fager, I love that he's had 4 workouts since, 3 of them at 5 furlongs. Contender.
#5-ALL TO WIN: Farther back in the FSS Dr. Fager than expected, he rallied into fourth when well-backed at 3-1. Could see some price increase here and he's in with a reasonable chance to improve. Jockey Emisael Jaramillo more often that not wants to be in the early mix, so expect more urgency than the last matchup.
#6-I'M TUFF ENOUGH: No threat sixth to open this series when 20-1 and unless the blinkers-off move produces a major wakeup for trainer Mark Passley, this Girvin colt is tough to recommend..
#7-CAMIGOL: Figures to vie for favoritism off his FSS Dr. Fager runner-up at 3-1 odds. Antonio Sano charge rolled to a dirt dash win here in June before a distant third in the 4-horse Grade 2 Saratoga Special. He obviously fits here and has had 4 workouts right on cute for this, including an Oct. 4 bullet. Solid.
#8-WOOTUN: Fresh face to the local stakes scene, this is a fast colt coming off a front-running maiden breaker in his second start. Heather Smullen's barn is going very well right now and this colt was meant to have a quick turnaround. Little-known $2,000 stallion Tunwoo isn't expected to have a colt sell for $95,000 in the 2YO sales. Interesting newcomer.
#9-MICANOPY: Edgard Zayas lands here when he could have ridden a few of the other players. Debut runner-up made decent improvement second time out to win a 7-furlong maiden sprint. Trainer Jose D'Angelo landed a bullet half-mile workout in 47-3/5 at Palm Meadows on Oct. 3 to signifying this one's readiness. Jockey-trainer hit 24% together and certainly feels like a live wire.
#10-HAWK: Rallied, second-best behind wire-to-wire winner Wootun on Sept. 27 and gets a rematch with that one while on the stakes rise. Carlos David gives the return call to Samy Camacho. Running style in debut would appear suited for 7 furlongs if he can make a leap forward in his second start.
#11-KHOZALITE: Runner-up Aug. 2 on dirt to return rival All to Win, but followed that up with a 2-turn turf mile victory in an open company maiden special weight 4 weeks later. Second Jose D'Angelo entrant in the lineup gets regular rider Leonel Reyes. Tactical speed with his stamina-building prep make him interesting; if he's in the hunt, he could finish best.
Most Likely Exotics Contender:
I'm putting my lean to MICANOPY here and his successful 7F experience.
Best Longshot Contender:
TRELAWNY (10-1 ML) has shown consistency in the afternoon and in the morning and has a trustworthy outlook to land in the superfecta for the fourth time in as many starts.
Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$70 win MICANOPY. $5 exacta key-box MICANOPY with TRELAWNY, WOOTUN and KHOZALITE ($30).
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