The Lead:
Florida Derby Day at Gulfstream Park this Saturday is loaded with stakes intrigue throughout the major divisions in racing. Triple Crown hopefuls battle in the main event, while Kentucky Oaks prospects are in action in Race 11, the Gulfstream Park Oaks. This 1-1/16 miles test will be part of the $25,000 Exacta-Thon for 1/ST BET and Xpressbet players throughout the 12-race program.
Field Depth:
FIONA'S MAGIC (pictured above) is a Grade 2 winner with the field's signature victory. WAYS AND MEANS is Grade 1-placed, while INTO CHAMPAGNE and SCALABLE are Grade 2-placed. There's no major class edge among these though SCALABLE has kept the strongest company lines over the longest time.
Pace:
FIONA'S MAGIC and DO GOODER should provide the pace here with INTO CHAMPAGNE and GUN SONG close up in the early mix. The pace should be above average to fast, though 1-1/16 miles races here often favor speed with a short run into the clubhouse turn and the 1/16th-pole finish line in play when they straighten for home.
Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.
#1-POWER SQUEEZE: A winner in both bids around 2 turns in addition to Gulfstream's 1-turn mile Cash Run Stakes, the field's hottest filly carries a 3-race winning streak. Trainer Jorge Delgado and Tampa-based jockey Daniel Centeno are 7-16 in tandem for 44% wins. Favorable draw and lots to like from a mid-pack trip.
#2-DO GOODER: Inside speedster will get every advantage in this track configuration while stretching out around 2 turns for the first time. Last year's Belmont Stakes-winning connections of Jena Antonucci and Javier Castellano team up. Bottom of the pedigree leans shorter, so we'll see how far she'll go and how much pace pressure Fiona's Magic applies.
#3-NEOM CITY: Stakes debut for filly who has sprinted in all 4 career starts with a lone victory December 2 at Gulfstream. Beaten 15-1/4 lengths in her only outing of 2024 and removes Lasix. Returns to jockey Joe Bravo, who piloted her to her only victory in his only time aboard previously.
#4-WAYS AND MEANS: Smashing Saratoga debut winner for Chad Brown, who also trained sire Practical Joke and dam Strong Incentive. She's half-sister to Brown-trained Blue Grass runner-up Highly Motivated. She hasn't been seen since wrapping up the Spa meet with a narrow runner-up as the 2-5 favorite in the Grade 1 Spinaway. This will be her first bid around 2 turns and she enters off a bullet workout at Payson Park.
#5-INTO CHAMPAGNE: Half-length runner-up to Oaks rival Fiona's Magic last out in the Grade 2 Davona Dale. Won the first 2 starts of her career, including the Glitter Woman Stakes, and stretches out around 2 turns for the first time. Broke outward in each of her last 2 starts, and a repeat of that could impact the early speed of likely pace player Gun Song next door. Trainer Ian Wilkes seems some refuge after a long, unsuccessful Championship Meet.
#6-GUN SONG: Eye-catching allowance winner February 9 by nearly 6 lengths in a 1-turn mile. Trainer Mark Hennig has one blossoming as expected for a $400,000 daughter of Gun Runner. While the sire screams distance, dam Nicole H was a top-class sprinter, so this will test her stamina while obviously talented.
#7-AMERICA'S VOW: Tampa Bay Downs-based filly has won 1 of 6 starts, but has a quartet of 2-turn races in succession for this and will not lack fitness. It's the first local bid for the daughter of Florida Derby winner Constitution, though she could have a pedigree to play at GP.
#8-FIONA'S MAGIC: Florida-bred has been an open-company dynamo, winning 3 and finishing second twice in 5 starts. Her game, front-running victory in the 1-mile Davona Dale at 5-1 odds likely will cause a price reduction Saturday. With regular pilot Tyler Gaffalione off to ride at Oaklawn on Saturday, Jorge Ruiz gets the mount.
#9-SCALABLE: Trainer Todd Pletcher tries to bounce back with the Forward Gal Stakes beaten 9-5 favorite with a return around 2 turns for the first time since her fifth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. Late-running daughter of champion sprinter Speightstown had shown promise routing in the Chandelier at Santa Anita last fall. Opinion here is she's better around 2 turns. Wide draw means she likely drops farther back early to avoid ground loss and then try to make up the difference over the final half-mile.
Most Certain Exotics Contender:
With a hot pace, expect SCALABLE to make a run and be the most likely to land in the superfecta, though her win chances are compromised by this track set-up.
Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
POWER SQUEZE likely will be overlooked based on connections and the fact that she was 8-1 when she won in the Cash Run against a softer field. But she should get a great trip and rates a major chance.
Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$60 win POWER SQUEEZE. $10 exacta key-box POWER SQUEEZE with WAYS AND MEANS and GUN SONG ($40).
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