The Lead:
The 1/ST Racing Tour pulls into Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita this Saturday for 13 stakes races of national interest. From two Triple Crown trail preps to the Big 'Cap out west, it's a can't-miss day. The 14-race program in Florida includes the Fountain of Youth Stakes as the headline finale, but it's Race 10 that catches my eye in the preliminaries, the Gulfstream Park Mile.
Field Depth:
Grade 2 winner SIMPLIFICATION has the deepest resume, while G3 winner CHARGE IT (pictured) is also G1-placed. ENDORSED has held consistently solid company lines. This trio has a class edge.
Pace:
NITROUS CHANNEL has legitimate sprint speed. Look for horses like DEAN DELIVERS, OCTANE and CHARGE IT to be chasing closest. This does not look like an overwhelming pace and the winner comes from the first flight to this eye.
Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.
1-DEAN DELIVERS: Sprinter has given way late in all 3 starts beyond 7 furlongs, though never has totally thrown in the towel. Look for him to send from the rail under Miguel Vasquez and keep in contention through the final furlong, but find a few others too tough at the trip.
2-STEAL SUNSHINE: Late-running third in 7-furlong Mr. Prospector sets him up nicely for his second start of his 4-year-old season. All 3 of his local wins have come at this same 1-turn mile trip. Son of 2014 Florida Derby winner Constitution is as at home at Gulfstream as his pops.
3-NOBLE DRAMA: This 8-year-old has been part of the local sprint/mile scene since 2018. Note 7 of his 9 Gulfstream scores have come at this 1-turn mile distance. But he's won just 1 of his last 9, dating back to the summer of 2021. He'll need it very fast up front and the pace to come back to him for his best chance. That's not projected here.
4-SIMPLIFICATION: After winning the 1-turn mile Mucho Macho Man Stakes last January, he's embarked on 10 straight 2-turn routes. Is the cut-back now, after a 10th-place flounder in the Pegasus World Cup, more about finding easier competition or will he be effective running shorter? I'd like to have seen something really sharp on the workout tab to indicate he'll have the brilliance to compete here, but that's not present.
5-OCTANE: The 23-1 runner-up in the local prep, the G3 Fred W. Hooper, he's had but 1 bad race on his 10-start ledger. He might not be up to the top echelon of this race's rivals, but he's not far off. Just as he was last time, he'll be a big price again and capable of ticking a box in the exotics.
6-ENDORSED: The 7-year-old had lost 23 straight races before suddenly righting the ship with his active 2-race winning streak. His return to Gulfstream Park helped some as he's been credible here throughout his career. The Hooper victory most recently snapped an 0-for-8 career mark at the 1-mile distance. He'll be rallying from the back half of the pack, but not the clouds and would not surprise.
7-CHARGE IT: Expect a very short price on the favorite after his 2023 allowance return victory at 20 cents on the dollar. The 2022 Florida Derby runner-up has been sharp locally, but turned heads most when a 23-length victor in Belmont's Grade 3 Dwyer. He's had his issues physically and has never popped 2 huge efforts back-to-back. Obviously the horse to beat on his best.
8-O CAPTAIN: Absent since Kentucky Derby Day 2022 when fourth in the Pat Day Mile, he's no stranger to big race days like this. In fact, he was a rallying third in last year's Fountain of Youth. There's no telling where he'll land, pace-wise, as he wired a 5-1/2 furlong debut maiden when fresh in 2021, but has been a deep closer in his other 4 starts.
9-NITROUS CHANNEL: If Dean Delivers doesn't bust out from the rail, this son of Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist could find himself in total control of the pace. Love the outside draw with speed and a long run to the only turn, and jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. takes over in an excellent style fit with his aggressiveness. This one has been exclusively in sprints and never worse than second in 4 starts. Like his chances to pull the upset if anyone is to beat CHARGE IT.
Most Certain Exotics Contender:
CHARGE IT is 4-4 in the exacta at Gulfstream and a deserving favorite. His only misfire came in the Kentucky Derby and that's apples to oranges here.
Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
As mentioned above, OCTANE fits the bill and has some pace presence to remain sticky for a share.
Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$60 win NITROUS CHANNEL. $30 exacta CHARGE IT over NITROUS CHANNEL. $10 exacta NITROUS CHANNEL over CHARGE IT.
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