Race of the Week: Grade 1 Man o' War at Belmont | Saturday, May 13, 2023

‍The Lead:
We'll stick to the older turf division for a second straight week in this space, tabbing Belmont's Man o' War as a follow-up to Churchill's Turf Classic a week ago. This tradition-rich turf tilt, which inaugurated in 1959, lured a field of 8 over 1-3/8 miles. Among those is 2019 winner CHANNEL MAKER, who looks for a second title at the ripe age of 9.

​Field Depth:  
CHANNEL MAKER is the lone Grade 1 winner in the field, and is joined by Group 1-placed WARREN POINT, Grade 1-placed SOLDIER RISING, Grade 2 winners RED KNIGHT, VERSTAPPEN and VALUE ENGINEERING. STRONG TIDE is Grade 2-placed. Five of these come out of Keeneland's Grade 2 Elkhorn and there's not a wide class gap between them.

Pace:
None are confirmed front-runners, and the lead is most likely to be contested by CHANNEL MAKER and STRONG TIDE. Jockey Florent Geroux is generally more aggressive early and likely puts STRONG TIDE on the front. This race could be stolen up front and you won't want to drop hopelessly behind early and hope for it to come back to you.
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Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.

1-RED KNIGHT: Deep closer won't get much pace help, but the millionaire earner has held strong form at Gulfstream and Keeneland and now returns to his most successful surface at Belmont. Won the McKnight 2 starts back with Irad Ortiz up and they're reunited.

2-WARREN POINT: Trainer Charlie Appleby has been absolute precision with his US invasions that you have to respect everything he sends over. He went 9-18 and 8-17 domestically the past 2 calendar years with 24-35 in the exacta. This lightly raced 4-year-old has just 7 starts, never misfired, and comes off a Group 1 second in Qatar. That race's winner didn't show much in 2 follow-up starts in Dubai against top-class company, so this will be a class test.

3-CHANNEL MAKER: He's lost 5 in a row and 6 straight graded stakes over the past 13 months. It's fair to say he's lost a bit off his fastball at his advanced age, but a paceless race like this can help carry him the 11 furlongs. Belmont has always been his best course for success.

4-VERSTAPPEN: Red-hot trainer Brendan Walsh took flight at Keeneland and hasn't stopped since as Kentucky racing moved to Churchill, witnessed by the Kentucky Oaks win by Pretty Mischievous among several local victories. Game and rallying winner of the Elkhorn against four others back in this race, but he'll be on the road this time and picks up 4 pounds. The 16-1 price also likely will be cut in half.

5-HOWE STREET: Hotshot allowance winner was overbet as 2-1 favorite in the Elkhorn considering how little experience and foundation he had for the 12-furlong test. Jorge Abreu takes blinkers off following a middle-move at Keeneland that left him empty late. Jockey Flavien Prat was on him for the first time and Keeneland will have a better sense at the controls. Expect an improved effort.

6-SOLDIER RISING: Returns from more than 5 months on the sidelines, turf route specialist trainer Christophe Clement will have to get this one ready off his winter-spring Florida workouts. He's lost all 8 stakes starts since coming to America, but rarely has been overmatched. He lost an allowance race at 3-5 to open his 2022 season off a similar layoff and finds a much tougher spot Saturday.

7-STRONG TIDE: The 34 starts for this son of turf champ English Channel have been split evenly at 17 apiece on grass and dirt. Off 10 months, he was sent the impossible 12-furlong journey at Oaklawn in the Temperence Hill against more established dirt horses. He held his own with a fourth-place effort that could set him up well here returning to turf. He ran a big race on the front end of the G3 Connelly Turf in 2022 when making this same, second-off-the-layoff appearance in his form cycle. Probably the one to catch if good enough.

8-VALUE ENGINEERING: Ex-Chad Brown charge rattled off 2 stakes wins at Gulfstream this winter since moving to Mike Maker, the H. Allen Jerkens and the Mac Diarmida. Expected to see much more in the Elkhorn at Keeneland vs. several of these and was completely flat that day for no outward reason. Jose Ortiz rode him to the GP stakes wins but hops seats to Soldier Rising, a concerning move.

Most Certain Exotics Contender:
RED KNIGHT loves Belmont and will be coming with a late run, but it's fair to think the pace could leave him on the bottom of the exotics.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
STRONG TIDE will take them as far as he can on the front end and has been 10-1 and 13-1 in his prior Belmont visits. He will be at least that price or more.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$60 win WARREN POINT. $20 exacta WARREN POINT over STRONG TIDE. $20 win STRONG TIDE.

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