The Lead:
After a $658 score in this space last week at Gulfstream Park in the Hooper, why change venues? We'll wheel back for 3-year-old fillies on the early stages of the Oaks trail in this 7-furlong event. The Forward Gal goes as Race 10 on a card that includes the return of 2023's Champion 2-Year-Old Colt Fierceness in the Holy Bull Stakes.
Field Depth:
WITWATERSRAND is a Grade 3 winner in Canada, while SCALABLE is Grade 2-placed stateside. Stakes winners in the field include KISSEDBYANANGEL, CHI CHI and R HARPER ROSE. SCALABLE has kept the most impressive company lines in limited starts.
Pace:
The inside pair KISSEDBYANANGEL and FIONA'S MAGIC should contest the front if the former can avoid gate incidents that have plagued her recently. Also expect R HARPER ROSE directly into the early fray. The pace should be above-average for 7 furlongs.
Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.
1-KISSEDBYANANGEL: Most seasoned filly in the group makes her 9th lifetime start and second since exiting Maryland for Florida and new trainer Rodolfo Sanchez-Salomon. Rail draw could be troublesome as she's left the gate in disarray twice in a row. Luis Saez is an excellent gate rider, so let's see if he can fix that issue.
2-FIONA'S MAGIC: Back-to-back wins on the front end for this daughter of St. Patrick's Day as she makes the progression from maiden to allowance to stakes for the first time. Trainer Michael Yates' barn has struggled at the Championship Meet overall, but her form has no knocks. Top pilot Tyler Gaffalione gets the call in a bold rider change.
3-CHI CHI: Well-traveled performer ran at Del Mar, Remington Park, Tampa Bay Downs and Gulfstream during her 5-race juvenile season. You wonder if that took a toll as her 2024 return in the 1-mile Cash Run Stakes was the worst effort of her career. She'll want a fast pace in order to pass tired ones late.
4-R HARPER ROSE: Speedster ran into her distance limit in the series finale for the Florida Sire Stakes at 1-1/16 miles around 2 turns, but didn't wilt as the odds-on favorite when second-best. She's perfect in 3 sprints and likely takes this field as far as she can. The pressure from the rail pair will measure the difficulty.
5-NIKITIS: New York snowbird makes her first Gulfstream foray for trainer Chad Brown, whose ice-cold Championship Meet results began to turn the tide last weekend. The NYRA set was the superior circuit with the 2YO fillies last year, so her company lines, albeit in maiden races, might stack up better than the label suggests. Irad Ortiz Jr. takes over for the first time, and that never hurts.
6-SCALABLE (pictured above): She was the classic "nibbler breaks out" last time when demolishing a maiden field in her fourth start and first bid at Gulfstream. The drop in class out of graded stakes had to have helped, but it was also her only start with Lasix, which won't be in play Saturday. Her one-turn mile stalk and pounce last time should translate fine to the 7F distance, but it did take 23 days to get back on the workout tab after her seasonal return ... a bit longer than you'd like. Mixed signs, but likely an underlay on the tote to find out.
7-WITWATERSRAND: Woodbine freshman campaign was outstanding on the synthetic track, winning 2 of 3, including the Mazarine Stakes. Sire Connect has modest numbers with his offspring on the Gulfstream dirt and no stakes winners, so the jury will be out. Outside draw helps fresh face to dirt racing as she won't get as much kickback from that post if Paco Lopez keeps her in the clear.
Most Certain Exotics Contender:
R HARPER ROSE gets back to her best distance, and even if she's not still peaking and the pace pressure gets to her, I don't see her out of the superfecta.
Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
We're never talking longshot with Chad and Irad, but NIKITIS (5-1 morning line) shouldn't be among the top couple of wagering choices and I'm banking on the NYRA strength in this division to date. Sire Audible won the Florida Derby and Holy Bull over this track at age 3, so the new venue may be a good fit.
Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$80 win NIKITIS. $5 exacta key-box NIKITIS with R HARPER ROSE and SCALABLE ($20).
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