The Lead:
Another nice $720 score here in the Race of the Week space in the West Virginia Breeders Classic last Saturday leads us into this week's stakes play at Gulfstream Park. The second round of the Florida Sire Stakes series features the Affirmed division for the colts & geldings as well as the Susan's Girl for the fillies. Both series got underway in September over 6 furlongs and both races extend to 7 furlongs on Saturday. Expect Rated By Merit to dominate Race 8 in the Affirmed, so my focus will be the Race 11 Susan's Girl.
Horseplayers with Xpressbet and 1/ST BET take advantage of up to $10 back if your win bet in either FSS race at Gulfstream this Saturday finishes second or third.
Field Depth:
Five of the 7 entered have stakes experience with WIN N YOUR IN and R MORNING BREW stakes winners. Four of these rematch from the FSS Desert Vixen last month.
Pace:
R MORNING BREW led virtually coast to coast in both of her starts and should be pushed up from by inside-drawn WIGGLE AN' WINE and ROGUDE DIAMOND. Who can finish off the additional furlong tells the tale.
Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.
#1-WIGGLE AN' WINE: Runner-up behind Saturday return rivals WIN N YOUR IN and R MORNING BREW, there's concern the additional distance won't aid the Jose Pinchin trainee. But what I do like is that she's had 4 workouts since the FSS Desert Vixen, compared to 2-3 for the others. That tells me she bounced out of it great and her bullet drill October 4 provides real optimism.
#2-ROGUE DIAMOND: Hawthorne debut winner for high-percentage Larry Rivelli outfit brings more speed to the mix in her FSS series unvelling. Weak 65 BRIS late pace figure in the 5-furlong victory while ridden out doesn't inspire confidence adding a quarter-mile to the trip.
#3-WIN N YOUR IN: Sharp Susan Stakes winner was odds-on favorite in the FSS series opener and gave way to a distant third. Appeared in front wraps for the first time in that one for trainer Carlos David. Trio of quick works at Palm Meadows since. She's not fast enough to get the lead, and I'd like to see Miguel Vasqeuz take her a bit farther off the pace. She's got a couple of BRIS late pace figures in races before the FSS Desert Vixen that would make her a late threat -- but she can't chase too close like last time.
#4-DON'T FOOL WITH ME: No match for R MORNING BREW in 2 prior matchups, but rebounded against easier competition to break her maiden Sept. 29. The only FSS Desert Vixen alumna in this race to have raced since, sos Kathleen O'Connell could see improvement with more foundation. Prefer others.
#5-R MORNING BREW (pictured): Romping FSS Desert Vixen winner has scored both starts by 10 combined lengths without being challenged late. She's been strong on the back end of those 6-furlong races both visually and in BRIS late pace figures. Her regression will be necessary for others to get into the mix. She has had only 2 workouts since the Sept. 7 first round of the series, fewest of any returnee, and took 22 days to get back onto the tab.
#6-I'MALWAYSTHINKING: Muddy track debut winner August 30 in a modest time takes a big step up in competition and quality. Trainer Michael Yates should get the FSS Affirmed trophy with Rated by Merit, but this figures a much bigger ask.
#7-KIP THE DISTANCE: Most experienced member of the field makes her seventh start and actually cuts back from 1 mile (8 furlongs) to 7 furlongs. Early season juvenile won her second start in May, but doesn't have a lot to show for it since.
Most Certain Exotics Contender:
WIN N YOUR WIN will get pace to track and has shown consistency over 4 starts at 3 distances.
Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
WIGGLE AN' WINE with 4 works since the last race could step up at a fair price.
Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$75 exacta WIN N YOUR IN over R MORNING BREW. $25 exacta WIN N YOUR IN over WIGGLE AN' WINE.
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