The Lead:
The Florida Sire Stakes series finales are co-featured Saturday at Gulfstream Park when the fillies meet in the $300,000 My Dear Girl (Race 6) and the colts & geldings square off in the $300,000 In Reality (Race 10). It's the first big Saturday of the 2024-'25 Championship Meet, which gets underway Thanksgiving Day Thursday. Both of Saturday's tests extend the trip to 1-1/16 miles, and while the fillies have seen split results in the first two series' legs, the colts are out to upend a sweep by RATED BY MERIT.
Field Depth:
RATED BY MERIT (pictured) is the lone stakes-winner in the field of nine. CLASSIC OF COURSE and NEOEQUOS are multiple stakes-placed. Class is very subjective with lightly raced 2-year-olds, but the aforementioned trio have fewer questions still to answer in that department than the others.
Pace:
Eight of the nine entrants stretch out to their first 2-turn attempt, so expect a brisk pace. RATED BY MERIT, NEOEQUOS, OLEG and LATCH THE HATCH appear to have the most early interest.
Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.
#1-RATED BY MERIT: Only 8 horses have swept the FSS in its 40-plus years, and the obvious hurdle becomes the sprint-to-route nature of the finale. As fast and dominant as he's been in winning all 3 starts by nearly 20 combined lengths, there are 2 concerns. The Oct. 19 Affirmed had a faster second quarter than first, raising the possibility that this colt won't settle around 2 turns. Second, he ran with his head exceptionally high late in the 7F second leg of the series, indicating some visual signs of tiring. The rail trip and sixteenth-pole finish line for this configuration give him every chance to stretch and win -- even if he's not a pure router. But you'll take an exceptionally short price to find out and give 4 pounds to every other rival. Elite sprinter Bentornato was third in this race last year at 30 cents on the dollar looking similarly dominant prior.
#2-ROAR OF THE BEAST: First of 2 Saffie Joseph Jr. trainees (along with NEOEQUOS), this 0-2 maiden makes his stakes debut. Likely best last out when playing makeup mode mid-race for a rocky start, but pedigree suggests 2 turns won't improve his game.
#3-JUST RELAX: Even, non-threatening fourth in the Dr. Fager to open this series at 6 furlongs, trainer Jose D'Angelo brings him off a 2-month hiatus in search of his first victory in his third start. Even-running sprinters often excel routing and this one's pedigree top and bottom has been asking for more real estate. Great post draw and interesting.
#4-LOU: Since moving from Juan Alvarado to Carlos David, this son of Brethren has won 2 of his last 3, including an open-company allowance Nov. 9 over 7 furlongs. Most experienced horse in the field with 8 starts, but made zero impact when a well-beaten sixth in the FSS Affirmed vs. many of these. Running style and damside pedigree indicate more distance won't be a dealbreaker.
#5-LATCH THE HATCH: Least experienced member of the field was a debut winner October 12 over a sloppy track for Joe Orseno. Beat Saturday return rival OLEG in that one and note the third-place finisher came back to break his maiden next out and then run third in the open-company Juvenile Sprint Stakes most recently. Strong and steady workout tab since then and note that Orseno won this year's 1-1/16 miles Holy Bull with lightly raced Hades who also was moving sprint-to-route. Bred for more trip.
#6-EMMETT: Maiden claiming winner in August on the Tapeta has yet to run on dirt in 3 starts, well-beaten in his last 2 starts vs. open company. Difficult read, but 2-turn experience in tow and sire Greenpointcrusader was a credible runner-up in the Holy Bull over this track and trip in 2016. Trainer Jose D'Angelo's JUST RELAX figures to take more attention of the pair.
#7-CLASSIC OF COURSE: Five straight top-4 stakes finishes, including third-place efforts in the first 2 legs of the FSS series. Of the alumni of the Affirmed, he's had 3 workouts compared to 2 for the others, indicating he bounced of the race strong and could move forward with additional foundation built. Sprint-to-route hasn't been a big stats angle for Patrick Biancone trainees at GP, however, and this one's flat late running lines sprinting don't inspire distance extension. Mixed vibes.
#8-NEOEQUOS: Second of 2 Saffie Joseph Jr. trainees (along with ROAR OF THE BEAST), he's been the runner-up in the Dr. Fager and Affirmed so far in the FSS series. Both times he battled RATED BY MERIT early and gave away margin late. Pedigree to improve with distance, but not if they get up into the early tussle again. If he can settle off the pace a few lengths, there's a chance they come back to him.
#9-OLEG: Three-race maiden makes his stakes debut for trainer Jorge Delgado while challenged with a wide post and short run to the clubhbouse turn. Those types moving sprint-to-route often don't navigate the first bend from a wide draw like this, making the task more difficult. If you want to make a case, Delgado trainees are among the strongest statistically moving from 1 turn to 2 on the Gulfstream dirt since 2018.
Most Certain Exotics Contender:
Even if you're swinging to beat RATED BY MERIT, it's difficult to see him out of the superfecta.
Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
Very good options here with RATED BY MERIT being such a short price. JUST RELAX and LATCH THE HATCH at 15-1 and 12-1 morning line, respectively, really intrigue.
Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$40 win LATCH THE HATCH. $15 exacta part-wheel JUST RELAX, LATCH THE HATCH over JUST RELAX, LATCH THE HATCH, RATED BY MERIT ($60).
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