The Lead:
The annual Florida Sire Stakes series stretches out over 3 races and kicks off this Saturday at Gulfstream Park for the 2-year-olds. The fillies match up in Race 6, the Desert Vixen, where Sharp Susan Stakes winner Win N Your In should be solidly favored. The colts & geldings take center stage in Race 10, the Dr. Fager.
Horsesplayers at 1/ST BET and Xpressbet can take part Saturday in a $10 money-back special promo for both Gulfstream stakes races. Get up to $10 back if your win bet finishes second or third in either race.
Field Depth:
Class is a difficult estimate with lightly raced horses, but CANDYCRUMBS already has a stakes victory, while CLASSIC OF COURSE is stakes-placed. No major edges can be gleaned at this stage.
Pace:
You expect plenty of early pressure in a 6-furlong juvenile race on dirt, and I'MBIGGERTHANILOOK has set the tone in all 3 of his starts. RATED BY MERIT, an exceptionally fast debut winner, should also be into the mix from the outset.
Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.
#1-CLASSIC OF COURSE: Local debut winner in May held his own fourth in Saratoga's Tremont before a Gulfstream return second in the Proud Man Stakes over this trip August 10. Should break with a clean start, unlike last time, and jockey Emisael Jaramillo looks for back-to-back wins in the Dr. Fager after piloting Bentornato a year ago.
#2-NEOEQUOS: Saffie Joseph Jr. trainee has seen the highs and lows in 2 starts, losing the jock at the start of his debut and winning off handily in his second start. Barn won this race in 2019 with Chance It and jockey Miguel Vasquez won here in 2022 with Awesome Story. Last was absolutely good enough and barn is redhot.
#3-I'MBIGGERTHANILOOK: Wire-to-wire winner over 5 furlongs in his second of 3 starts, the extra furlong of the Proud Man Stakes took its toll after making the lead again. Pressure from outside by Rated by Merit makes this task perhaps even more difficult. Trainer Jose Pinchin won this race in 2016 with Three Rules.
#4-CANDYCRUMBS: Rallying Colonial Downs winner August 3 in the restricted Hickory Tree Stakes, the additional distance should be more than suitable. Top rider Edgard Zayas takes over for high percentage Mary Lightner barn and this one's debut dashing locally was solid enough to know he'll handle the track. Sire Valiant Minster was responsible for last year's Dr. Fager winner Bentornato.
#5-LAWLER: Longshot has been defeated by 13 and 15 lengths in a pair of maiden races and has been his own worst enemy going into, and standing in, the starting gate. You'd prefer not to be drawn close by him.
#6-ZIZKA: Already 5 starts into his career, breaking through last time over 6-1/2 furlongs with a driving finish. No doubt has a fitness edge no the cutback in distance and experience edge on these, but trainer Javier Gonzalez hitting just 4% on the year.
#7-JUST RELAX: Dueling debut runner-up over a sloppy track could make second-start improvement. Chased home Naughty Rascal in the slop July 21 and that runner came back to best a few of these in the Proud Man Stakes next out. Trainer Jose D'Angelo won this race a year ago with Bentornato.
#8-RATED BY MERIT: Smoking winner first-time out July 13 for Michael Yates barn that has won the Dr. Fager twice (2018, 2021). That 92 Beyer figure is going to make him an odds-on favorite and a repeat anywhere near 1:10-2/5 on the clock would make him a daylight winner. Four spaced-out works awaiting this race and benefits with early speed from the outside draw.
Most Certain Exotics Contender:
RATED BY MERIT was brilliant over this track and trip, and avoids trouble and standing time in the gate with his outside draw.
Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
JUST RELAX has a bullet workout since chasing a next-out stakes winner and trainer D'Angelo is ridiculous 6-14 in Gulfstream juvenile stakes since 2019.
Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$100 exacta RATED BY MERIT over JUST RELAX as numbers 1,2,4 all should be covered more in the exacta under the favorite and provide some value here.
.svg){kind=logo}
