$400,000 FLORIDA SIRE STAKES IN REALITY AT GULFSTREAM
Saturday, September 25, 2021
The Lead:
Saturday's Gulfstream Park card stuffs 4 stakes races onto the marquee, including the series finales for the Florida Sire Stakes. The 2-year-old fillies will have to scoot to catch heavily favored Outfoxed in the My Dear Girl division. As for the colts and geldings, the mile and one-sixteenth In Reality division looks to be far more competitive in Race 11.
1/ST BET and Xpressbet are offering a $10 money-back special on all 4 stakes races Saturday at Gulfstream Park. We'll refund your Win bet, up to $10, if your pick finishes second or third.
Field Depth:
Florida Sire Stakes series winners OCTANE and CAJUN'S MAGIC return and re-match. They're the stakes winners in the 10-horse cast, while BIG AND CLASSY and GOLD SPECIAL are stakes-placed. As reminded in this space often, with 2-year-olds, don't get tied up with class levels. Some stakes are easier than others; some maiden races harder than you think. Only time will tell as to the level of class of many of these races.
Pace:
OCTANE went wire to wire last out and is expected to be battling early with new face ONE MORE SCORE and past rival BIG AND CLASSY, both drawn just to his inside. The quick run to the clubhouse turn at this configuration will be key how the In Reality plays out. Will OCTANE be able to clear those inside of him, or have to overcome a bit wider trip? With all the stretch-out sprinters trying 2 turns on dirt, many will be 'all-in' midway on the far turn.
Our Eyes:
Since 2016, 6 of these 9 stretch-out juvenile stakes at Gulfstream have been won by horses coming off of victories, and 8 of the 9 ran first or second last time out. History says don't expect a big form reversal or wake-up. The last-out winners in this race obviously include OCTANE, along with recent maiden breakers THE SKIPPER TOO and ONE MORE SCORE. The primary focus for me will be to hone in on these, along with CAJUN'S MAGIC, runner-up in the Affirmed to OCTANE. Beyond that quartet, anything else will come as a surprise. BIG AND CLASSY has run evenly as a sprinter, which translates to routes often, but may need a wet track for his best.
So can wet get CAJUN'S MAGIC to upset OCTANE? The post position draw was highly advantageous for this trip for CAJUN'S MAGIC (post 2) over OCTANE (post 7). Not just that 1 horses is closer to the rail than the other, which helps stretching out around 2 turns, but also that the other speed in the race is inside of OCTANE. You could see a dynamite trip forming for CAJUN'S MAGIC sitting inside about third or fourth, and trying to punch them out late. But he's been a product of fast early/slow late races, including the Affirmed, where the winner got only a 77 BRIS late pace figure -- and that was a career-best at that. Yes, CAJUN'S MAGIC could turn the tables Saturday, but my feeling is neither of the Affirmed top-2 are absolutely craving to run farther.
In terms of value, the play is to decipher between THE SKIPPER TOO and ONE MORE SCORE. The public almost assuredly will go toward ONE MORE SCORE based on a singular digit -- the 13-length winning margin last time out. Big margins get eyeballs and dollars. But ONE MORE SCORE had 2 chances against this race's favorites already and was only able to muster third-place finishes behind them. He, too, has maxed out around 75 for BRIS late pace figures; so the distance may not be the best deal. This leaves THE SKIPPER TOO in the crosshairs, and he'll be the biggest price of the 4 most likely. He's popped 83 and 91 BRIS late pace figures in his last 2 starts and has been a part of slow-early/fast-late races that could benefit him on the increased distance. He's got 5 races under his belt for more foundation, and that never hurts when asked for the longest trip yet. With CAJUN'S MAGIC and OCTANE having to give 4 pounds to the others, we get another potential boost and aid for the assignment.
Most Certain Exotics Contender:
CAJUN'S MAGIC should deliver from an inside draw with an honest effort.
Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
THE SKIPPER TOO should be a good price and the one I want.
Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$70 win THE SKIPPER TOO. $15 exacta box THE SKIPPER TOO and CAJUN'S MAGIC.
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