The Lead:
Del Mar's Saturday feature drew a better field than expected for $100,000. The Native Diver at 1-1/8 miles arguably stacks up favorably to the Grade 1 Pacific Classic, despite the summer main event offering 10X the loot. What also makes it interesting is this six-pack has very few common races against one another.
Field Depth:
Grade 1 winner MIXTO has the field's signature win in the aforementioned Pacific Classic. But the lineup includes Grade 2 winner SALESMAN, Grade 1-placed MIRAHMADI and SKINNER and Grade 2-placed TARANTINO. ULTRA POWER tries a graded stakes for the first time.
Pace:
MIRAHMADI wired last out in his first 2-turn try of the year and should employ similar interests from the rail. TARANTINO showed speed and guts last out on a similar stretch-out and should be in the mix. Look for MIXTO and ULTRA POWER to be close up as well. The pace should be very solid for 1-1/8 miles and a finisher would have a chance if he fires.
Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.
#1-MIRAHMADI: After eight nibbles in the maiden ranks, he burst open the door with a 10-length victory October 12 that was a long time coming. It was a super stretch-out from the sprints and these types often win right back once the lightbulb flips on. Jockey Juan Hernandez jumps to ride fellow Bob Baffert stablemate Ultra Power, but I preferred this one's more recent works. Baffert has won this race 3 years in a row (6 times overall), including last year with a similar 3-year-old (Mr. Fisk). Distance will be a question, so he'll need to be in the 47s at the half.
#2-ULTRA POWER: Second of 2 Baffert sophomores, this Curlin colt disappointed last out as the even-money favorite in an allowance race that set up beautifully for him. Despite a pace duel in front of him and with clear sailing, he failed to get home and get by Native Diver return rival Tarantino. Impeccably bred son of Unique Bella, his August return win at Del Mar hinted at bigger things. Hernandez, who has won this race 2 of the last 4 years, opts to ride over Mirahmadi.
#3-SKINNER: Deep closer has been apt for the underneath finishes throughout his 11-race career, always teasing that there's more to come. But he's 11: 1-3-3, including 5: 0-2-1 at Del Mar, and has dropped 7 straight decisions. Should get the pace set-up, but hasn't delivered major improvements second-off-the-layoff in 2 prior breaks. Trainer John Shirreffs won this race in 2019 (Midcourt).
#4-SALESMAN: European export has just 1 win from 7 starts since arriving in the barn of Richard Mandella, who owns a record 8 victories in the Native Diver all-time. Mandella's history in this race spans trophies from 1983 through 2020, quite a 37-year evolution. Dubawi 7-year-old doesn't have nearly the speed early of some of these and will need a pace collapse to be successful at 9 furlongs; his lone US win came over 13 furlongs.
#5-TARANTINO: Veteran of 24 starts showed promise in Florida at age 3, and now at age 6 was as game as could be asked in a front-running, re-rallying victory at Santa Anita last month. Peter Eurton claimed him in July at Del Mar at the end of a 19-race losing streak, but the colt has won both slugfests for the barn since changing addresses. Not sure he bounces back strongly 4 weeks after such a tough race against Ultra Power. Edwin Maldonado piloted Defunded to win this race in 2022.
#6-MIXTO: The 22-1 Pacific Classic upsetter pressed a ridiculous pace in the Breeders' Cup Classic before waving the white towel in a strong rendition of that race. Curious to run back 3 weeks later for $100,000 and have to give 4-7 pounds to his competition as a Grade 1 winner. Trainer Doug O'Neill won this race in 2000 and 2008. He's just 2-for-15 with his best races all coming when he's in the hunt throughout. Pacific Classic-winning jockey Kyle Frey gets sacked in favor of Antonio Fresu.
Most Certain Exotics Contender:
SKINNER will be passing tired horses and was runner-up in this race a year ago. No reason to think he won't be part of the superfecta, and with a quick pace scenario helping his cause, he's the back half of the exacta in my plays.
Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
No massive prices projected, but TARANTINO was 13-1 when winning last out and could be overlooked again with a chance to hold for a share.
Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$35 exacta part-wheel MIRAHMADI, MIXTO over SKINNER ($70). $15 exacta part-wheel TARANTINO, ULTRA POWER over SKINNER ($30).
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