The Lead:
The 1/ST Breeders' Cup Wager Guide has you blanketed with great coverage of this weekend's 14 championship races at Del Mar, including my picks for the Juvenile Fillies Turf and Turf Sprint. We'll use this space to identify a key undercard play to get your Breeders' Cup Saturday off to a fast start.
Don't forget that horseplayers at Xpressbet and 1/ST BET can play in the $20,000 Exacta-Thon promotion for Friday and Saturday full-card at Del Mar. It's free and could add significantly to your winnings.
Field Depth:
ASPEN GROVE (pictured) is a Grade 1 winner, while SACRED WISH, FLUFFY SOCKS and KATHMANDU are Grade 1-placed. Graded/Group stakes winners include MOUFFY, NADETTE, RAQIYA and UNCORKED. European raider KATHMANDU arguably has kept the best company lines, while FLUFFY SOCKS could get that consideration among the Americans.
Pace:
OMAHA GIRL may be the lone US runner committed to the front, though SACRED WISH and UNCORKED have some ability to press. KATHMANDU has shown pacemaking ability overseas and should be prominent in a race that would seem to favor a filly or mare near the front.
Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.
#1-ASPEN GROVE: Three close calls in stakes this year for the '23 Grade 1 Belmont Oaks Invitational winner as she seeks a signature victory at 4. Solid try at Santa Anita last out shows she can handle top of ground running like Del Mar. Should be well-positioned and in contention.
#2-SACRED WISH: Aggressive jockey Paco Lopez likely puts this one right into the mix from post 2 and it would be no shock if she leads them early. Her Monmouth efforts were solid over a course not far different than Del Mar.
#3-FLUFFY SOCKS: Fourth Del Mar road trip for 6-year-old who has never run a bad one there (won 2020 Jimmy Durante, third '21 Del Mar Oaks, second '23 Martriarch). Deep-closing style may not get a fleet pace set-up, which is a concern and her only win in her last 11 starts was on a marsh of a course Preakness Day at Pimlico.
#4-MOUFFY: East coaster tries Del Mar for the first time, but was rock-solid twice at Santa Anita this past winter. Lacks any sort of early speed, which could work against her in this race set-up, but she's classy and capable.
#5-FUENTE OVEJUNA: Inconsistent and well-traveled sort hasn't had much success in 3 Del Mar bids, though was second at 15-1 in the Yellow Ribbon. That 0-9 record in turf miles stands out in the negative.
#6-OMAHA GIRL: 3-year-old filly was off the board in Del Mar's San Clemente at long odds this summer and now faces tougher older fillies and mares. Trainer George Papaprodromou has been red-hot and she'll show some speed for a bit.
#7-LUCKY GIRL: Trainer Phil D'Amato has won the Goldikova Stakes 2 of the last 3 years and looks for more with this Mabee Stakes runner-up from summer. The kicker is that effort was her only in-the-money finish in 7 tries at Del Mar. Mike Smith rode her that day and returns after a fading performance at Santa Anita under Tyler Baze.
#8-NADETTE: From-the-clouds closer easily has the best BRIS late pace figures in this field if the race is to be won from off the pace. Veteran horseman Neil Drysdale has campaigned her all over the country, but her lone Del Mar start was a solid third a year ago vs. lesser foes. Stacks up very similar with Goldikova entrant and past rival Mouffy.
#9-KATHMANDU: The Brian Meehan barn knows Breeders' Cup success, winning the turf with Red Rocks and Dangerous Midge, and he'll have Jayarebe as one of the favorites later Saturday. But French 1000 Guineas runner-up KATHMANDU could play a lot of the bills for this road trip if she brings her best form. She has set the pace overseas in multiple starts and will be dangerous without much speed involved here.
#10-RAQIYA: Shrewd of trainer Owen Burrows to turn to Frankie Dettori to pilot his first-ever US starter. The former Sir Michael Stoute assistant brings this 3-year-old filly stateside after a DQ victory at Goodwood in the Grade 3 Oak Tree. She's a strong 4-for-7 lifetime but hasn't shown the same early foot that Kathmandu when comparing the Euros. Their Timeform Ratings are both very consistent and evenly matched, however.
#11-UNCORKED: Since coming to Phil D'Amato's barn this year, she's won the G3 Royal Heroine at Santa Anita and a hard-fought second in Del Mar's Yellow Ribbon among 4 inconsistent runs. Midpack running style will be challenged with a likely wide trip here from the outer draw.
Most Certain Exotics Contender:
NADETTE is 10 for her last 11 in the superfecta and will come with a run for a share.
Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
MOUFFY at 10-1 morning line has a solid 5: 2-2-0 turf mile mark and should like the firm going.
Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$40 exacta box KATHMANDU and RAQIYA ($80). $10 exacta part-wheel KATHMANDU, RAQIYA over NADETTE ($20).
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