The Lead:
Momentum from last week's $870 Princess Rooney Stakes score in this space carries into the inaugural California Crown at Santa Anita. The 1-1/8 miles feature matches Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile and Classic hopefuls as the main event on a card that also includes $750,000 supporting grass stakes in the Eddie D and John Henry Turf Championship, as well as the City of Hope Mile in the role of the nightcap.
Horseplayers with 1/ST BET and Xpressbet can play for an additional 5 Million 1/ST Rewards Points on various multi-race wagers throughout the opening weekend of the Santa Anita meet. Those wagers include a special two-day daily double matching the California Crown to Sunday's Zenyatta Stakes.
Field Depth:
Grade 1 winners NATIONAL TREASURE, NEWGATE, MUTH and SENOR BUSCADOR are proven at the level. SUBSANADOR is a Grade 1 winner in South America and Grade 1-placed domestically. Several of these match up very evenly in terms of class and schedule strength.
Pace:
NATIONAL TREASURE has been sent to the front in nearly all of his important races and should be quickest of these in a race that lacks serious other pace. MUTH figures to get a first-over trip with SUBSANADOR in close attendance. The latter is the key to the pace as the former pair or Bob Baffert stablemates who won't be battling one another to submission if ridden to expected instruction. The pace should be very comfortable for those near the front.
Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.
#1-NEWGATE: Santa Anita Handicap winner returns from a March layoff and trip to Dubai that came up empty. Decent sort looks to be the lesser of the Baffert trio here compared to National Treasure and Muth. Chance for a share, but a victory would surprise.
#2-SUBSANADOR: Made front in Santa Anita Handicap with cozy 1:12 opening three-quarters, but expect them to go quicker Saturday as this is a stronger field over a shorter trip. Exits his best US try in winning the Iselin at Monmouth and now picks up 6 pounds while facing tougher. Peg him for the minor awards.
#3-NATIONAL TREASURE: The 8-5 morning line favorite has won the Pegasus World Cup and Met Mile on the road this year, but has yet to win from 5 tries at Santa Anita. But his home track losses include a nose decision in the Breeders' Cup Mile to champ Cody's Wish, so it's not like he's incapable of running a big one over this surface. He has a pace edge and it's difficult to fault anything Flavien Prat has done in the saddle all season. Horse to beat should bounce back from poor effort on wet track in Whitney (he's consistently struggled on off tracks).
#4-KATONAH: Lackluster seventh in a weak renewal of the Pacific Classic at Del Mar, the multiple Santa Anita allowance winner should be a big price for Doug O'Neill. Popped second in the San Diego at 22-1 when under the radar 2 starts ago and will need a big leap forward to contend.
#5-MUTH: 3-year-old faces older horses for the first time, but long has been considered one of the leaders of his crop. Only loss in 4 Santa Anita starts was a runner-up in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and his sophomore season has been flawless in winning the San Vicente, Arkansas Derby and Shared Belief over 3 different tracks. Trip may be tricky having to do the dirty work against stablemate National Treasure if that one winds up lone speed as seems likely. His BRIS late pace figures are stronger than National Treasure, lending hope he can forge past if patiently handled.
#6-SENOR BUSCADOR: Late-running veteran has bagged more than $12.7 million lifetime (ranking among the top 10 all-time North American-based money earners). Nearly all of that came in winning the $20 million Saudi Cup and finishing third in the $12 million Dubai World Cup on a wild February-March road trip. Ran a non-threatening third in this race last year when it was named the Awesome Again Stakes behind a decent pace. This doesn't look as quick or conducive for him.
#7-INDISPENSABLE: Even though it took 9 starts to break his maiden, this 3-year-old came right back to run a credible second in Del Mar's Shared Belief (2 lengths behind Cali Crown rival Muth). He's making fair progress but would need to make another major leap forward to contend for a trifecta spot here. He gets an 8-pound weight break from the favorite, which never hurts.
Most Certain Exotics Contender:
The only start NATIONAL TREASURE hasn't finished in the superfecta on fast dirt was the 1-1/2 miles Belmont Stakes. He's got a pace edge here and fast track forecasted.
Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
INDISPENSABLE may be the best finisher of the horses at a price and could land the bottom of a super.
Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
Chalky in-race projection for me, so the value is built from the Race 8 California Crown Eddie D Stakes into this one. $75 daily double FIRST PEACE to NATIONAL TREASURE. $25 daily double FIRST PEACE to MUTH.
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