The Lead:
The Grade 1 Breeders' Futurity has spring-boarded an honor roll of winners like Forte, Essential Quality, Maxfield and Knicks Go just from its 6 most-recent runnings. The mile and one-sixteenth test around 2 turns once again figures to have a major Breeders' Cup Juvenile impact next month at Del Mar. It's one of 5 stakes on the Saturday card at Keeneland, going as Race 9, surrounded by Woodford, TCA, First Lady and Turf Mile.
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Field Depth:
Seven of the 11 make stakes debuts, but notably FEROCIOUS is Grade 1-placed, while TENACIOUS LEADER is Grade 3-placed. Difficult to make class certainties with lightly raced, promising horses all over the lineup.
Pace:
Four of these stretch out from sprints, the fastest of which appears to be EAST AVENUE. Expect inside-drawn runners FEROCIOUS and OPTICAL to be in the early hunt, but the pace should not be overwhelming. On the flipside, the Breeders' Futurity has been a haven in recent years for deeper closers.
Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.
#1-FEROCIOUS (pictured above): Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes runner-up has boasted strong 102 and 98 BRIS late pace figures in his 2 Spa sprint starts, indicating he'll handle more ground with success. Dam Napier won her debut at 1-1/16 miles, so there's pedigree for it as well. Aggressive star Keeneland jockey Luis Saez will take advantage of the rail and be in the mix.
#2-SARATOGA CRUISER: Late-running debut winner at Horseshoe Indianapolis got up after a final quarter in a dawdling 27-2/5 that indicates the field really came back to him. Tougher task here for the Jeff Engler trainee.
#3-OPTICAL: Wired a 1-turn mile at Churchill by 14 lengths last out for Keith Desormeaux, a where-did-that-come-from performance after 3 non-descript defeats. $40K buy defeated sales price-restricted maidens and will have to prove it here vs. tougher, though is drawn well and will be in the hunt from the outset.
#4-HANDSOME PANTS: Settled, stalked and pounced to victory in a 1-1/16 miles Churchill maiden debut that deserves credit. Not easy to win around 2 turns as first asking and earned a strong 95 BRIS late pace figure in that victory. Field spread-eagled in margins behind him, another good sign. The one to fear late if there's enough pace.
#5-EAST AVENUE: Smashing debut winner at Ellis Park over 6 furlongs for Godolphin and Brendan Walsh. Blueblood by Medaglia d'Oro is out of a half-sister to champion Cody's Wish and just overwhelmed his foes August 24. Eight of the last 9 Breeders' Futurity winners prepped at 7F or longer, so it's fair to wonder if this is too much, too soon, also given the lack of success in this race via Ellis. Promising 95 BRIS late pace figure despite not being threatened. Lots to like and the one to catch.
#6-FILOSO: Earned plenty of education in a pair of troubled starts at Saratoga, including a clear victory last out over a mile from the Wilson Chute start. Chad Summers trainee picks up John Velazquez for the first time and that, along with his couple of trips with chaos, will come in handy in a bulky field. He'll need some pace help and another big move forward.
#7-MESERO: Non-threatening fourth from off the pace in the Grade 3 Iroquois at Churchill going a 1-turn mile. Expect him to appreciate the route trip as a half-brother to elite turf route mare Bleecker Street, a Grade 1 winner who won 7 of 8 lifetime. Trainer Dale Romans won this race with deep-closing Brody's Cause in 2015. Should be running late with Handsome Pants.
#8-BIG BOAT: Trainer Jimmy DiVito has long been known around Chicago for his deft hand with young horses, and this Sept. 12 debut winner at Churchill returns 23 days later. Like East Avenue, will try to bite off a big chunk by extending from just 6 furlongs last out, a path that's been historically difficult in the Breeders' Futurity. Sire Nyquist won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile over this track and distance in 2015.
#9-TENACIOUS LEADER: Trainer Todd Pletcher seeks a Breeders' Futurity 3-peat after Forte and Locked the past 2 years. Neck runner-up last out in the grassy With Anticipation at Saratoga, a race that looked even stronger when rival Zulu Kingdom returned last weekend to win the Grade 2 Pilgrim. This one won on the dirt at Saratoga and should be a bigger price Saturday after going off favored in all 3 starts so far.
#10-DAPPER MOON: Second-start romping winner at Saratoga over 7 furlongs for Dallas Stewart. His 87 Beyer Speed Figure in that Aug. 31 start equals the number given to Ferocious in his Grade 1 Hopeful runner-up; so he fits on numbers if that's your bag. The rub is that he's drawn very wide with no experience around 2 turns; I prefer those types to be more inside.
#11-READY FOR PEACE: Kentucky Downs Juvenile Mile third-place finisher will make his first dirt bid on Saturday. His lone victory came over a grass mile at Colonial Downs for trainer Ignacio Correas. Versatile sire More Than Ready lends some hope for dirt. Jockey Jose Ortiz won this race a year ago aboard Locked as well as 2019 aboard Maxfield.
Most Certain Exotics Contender:
FEROCIOUS appears strongest late and is bred to handle the Keeneland surface while carrying his formidable Saratoga class and form.
Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
HANDSOME PANTS was overlooked at 10-1 in his debut win and should not be any more than fourth or fifth choice Saturday. He'll come with a late run.
Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$50 win FEROCIOUS. $50 daily double FEROCIOUS to KIKKULI in the Race 10 Grade 1 Turf Mile.
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