The Lead:
Santa Anita features a trio of graded stakes races on its Saturday card, none bigger than the Grade 1 Beholder Mile for older fillies and mares. It wraps an all-stakes pick three that starts with the Santa Ysabel for Oaks hopefuls and the San Simeon for turf sprinters. Post time for the Race 8 Beholder Mile is set for 7 pm ET / 4 pm PT.
Field Depth:
ADARE MANOR (pictured above) is the lone Grade 1 winner in the 9-runner lineup. INTERSTATEDAYDREAM, TURNERLOOSE and WINDOW SHOPPING are Grade 2 winners. Both DESERT DAWN and KIRSTENBOSCH are Grade 3 winners who've had Grade 1 placings. In terms of most consistently strong company lines, an edge to ADARE MANOR and DESERT DAWN.
Pace:
ADARE MANOR's 5-race win streak in 2023 was nearly all wire-to-wire, so you know her intent. Eastern invader GREEN UP has sprint speed if called up for it, and dazzling sprint winner SWEET AZTECA is sure to be heard from early in her 2-turn debut. The pace should be above-average to fast. A horse with a solid finishing kick should have the set-up to perform at her best if good enough.
Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.
#1-COFFEE TO BED: Jockey Mike Smith has won the Beholder Mile 7 times in his Hall of Fame career, 3 times aboard the legend Zenyatta and twice with Azeri among those. She likely travels mid-pack against these early despite the rail draw and needs to come with more run than she did when second in the local prep, the La Canada. Least preferred here of the pair of Richard Mandella trainees, preferring WINDOW SHOPPING.
#2-ADARE MANOR: Millionaire returns off a November layoff from the Breeders' Cup Distaff, where her 5-race win streak was snapped. She's a Santa Anita ace at 10: 6-3-0 and a perfect 3-for-3 at the mile trip. Trainer Bob Baffert dominated last Sunday with 3 graded stakes victories on the SA card. The last 2 times she returned from a layoff, she ran poorly in the Cotillion and then was beaten 4-5 favorite in allowance company. Thought she was pulling early and eager in her workout videos at XBTV and not jumping off the screen to be bet. Will take chance against her.
#3-GREEN UP: First of 2 Todd Pletcher raiders for the Beholder Mile, and note that cross-country shippers have won this race 2 of the last 3 years (A Mo Reay last year for Brad Cox, Swiss Skydiver for Kenny McPeek in 2021). The lightly raced 5-year-old made only 2 starts last year and 8 in her career, winning 5. She's worked in company twice recently with Beholder Mile uncoupled stablemate Interstatedaydream, and clearly looked the better of the pair to be via XBTV. Ran a good third at Keeneland last year off an even longer layoff. Capable.
#4 DESERT DAWN: Classy, consistent sort for Phil D'Amato should get more pace help than she did in winning the La Canada, and that never hurts. While she beat ADARE MANOR in 2022, her 3 matchups last year went to her rival all 3 times. Form is similar to last year when fourth in this race. Must respect even if Flavien Prat hops off to ride SWEET AZTECA on Saturday.
#5 INTERSTATEDAYDREAM: Beat ADARE MANOR in the 2022 Black-Eyed Susan at Pimlico, but a lot has changed since then. The former Brad Cox trainee had a solid '23 while winning 3 of 7 and was sold in November ... only to be brought back to the races this winter under new ownership and new guidance from Todd Pletcher. Consistent mare was well spotted around the country finding spots below the top cusp and this will be a taller task for her. On video, preferred what I saw from Pletcher workmate GREEN UP in their tandem drills in Florida.
#6 SWEET AZTECA: Rising local sprinter turned heads with a 12-length romp February 2, her second victory in 3 career starts. Will she go farther? She's in the right hands on 2 fronts. Jockey Flavien Prat opts to ride and has won this race the past 2 years. Trainer Michael McCarthy was able to stretch the speed of eventual champion sprinter Ce Ce to win this race in 2020. She's got a miler pedigree, so distance could be achievable. I would have liked to have seen more in her gallop-out last time, but that's only for my stretch-out evaluation and not necessarily an indictment that she won't go farther.
#7 KIRSTENBOSCH: Trainer John Sadler has 3 Beholder Mile victories and will seek a fourth with this veteran making her 20th lifetime start. She was fifth in this race last year at 35-1 odds and has similar form for the reappearance. Her last 4 starts have been sprints, and my estimation has been she's a better closing sprinter than a router, even if she did win the La Canada around 2 turns 14 months ago.
#8 TURNERLOOSE: Winless in 4 west coast starts since moving from Brad Cox to Phil D'Amato, she's primarily a turfer and has lost 11 in a row. Tough to see her taking this.
#9 WINDOW SHOPPING: Wildly inconsistent filly has shown flashes of brilliance in limited appearances. Comes off an October layoff working very well on video at XBTV and is giving off vibes that Richard Mandella, who won this race with the eventual namesake Beholder in 2016, has her right again. Ran massive off her seasonal return last March and is one to watch here despite a tough post draw. She'll lay back and make a rally, so perhaps won't lose too much ground on the first turn.
Most Certain Exotics Contender:
DESERT DAWN has been in the superfecta in 10 of her last 12, is in her form cycle and has a running style that makes her a factor regardless how the pace shapes up. She may not win, but no one feels more "top-4" than her.
Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
WINDOW SHOPPING has a chance to pop at a very nice number if the best version of her shows up.
Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$60 win WINDOW SHOPPING. $10 exacta key-box WINDOW SHOPPING with GREEN UP, SWEET AZTECA ($40).
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