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The Lead:
Day two of seven at Kentucky Downs' lucrative boutique meet features this $2 million potential stop on the road to the Breeders' Cup Mile. The Mint Millions has been contested under six different names since the race was launched in 1992. Saturday's renewal goes as Race 10 on an 11-race card that also boasts the $1 million Gun Runner and $1 million Music City Stakes, all run in succession.
Field Depth:
Grade 1 winners ATONE, ANNAPOLIS and GET HER NUMBER hold upper-echelon victories, while Grade 2 winners include CABO SPIRIT and STITCHED. The French Group 3 winner ANCIENT HOME is Group 1-placed overseas. This is a high-class cast not likely to be topped on a step up in company.
Pace:
There's no devout front-runner in this lineup, so the pace could be made by a combination of ATONE, STITCHED and/or CHURCHTOWN. Don't expect favorite ANNAPOLIS to be far from the front. A deep closer would appear compromised by this race flow.
Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.
1-CABO SPIRIT: Cross-entered in Thursday's Tapit Stakes (8-1 ML in that spot vs. 15-1 here), this California-based runner makes a curious equipment change to blinkers off in his 22nd career start. Del Mar shippers have just a 7% win rate in Kentucky Downs stakes, according to Betmix. Notably 0-5 since taking on elders in stakes company.
2-ATONE: Pegasus World Cup Turf winner hasn't been able to replicate that January effort in his last 3 starts, but a return to this race where he was runner-up a year ago could be the right fit. Trainer Mike Maker's runners ran 1st, 2nd and 4th in this race a year ago, winning it with Somelikeithotbrown while teamed with jockey Jose Ortiz, the return combo here.
3-STITCHED: Kentucky Downs' top stakes rider in recent years has been Florent Geroux both in volume (19 wins) and strike rate (22%). Even fifth last year in a stakes sprint and better-suited to the mile trip on Saturday. His 46-1 upset of the Grade 2 Wise Dan at Ellis Park sets him up for another decent price chance.
4-HOZIER: Won the cross-state prep for this race at Ellis Park, but will take on a decidedly tougher bunch Saturday. Highly underrated jockey-trainer combo of Acard-Brisset hit at 30% and this one paired up victories last year when rounding into form.
5-SMOKIN' T: Won the restricted Lure Stakes at Saratoga last out and it's notable that trainer Shug McGaughey is a wicked 7-14 with Spa shippers to Kentucky Downs in recent years, though his last stakes win here came in 2018. Consistent colt has fared best with John Velazquez in the saddle, and he's back Saturday.
6-ANCIENT ROME: Top-class British trainer Charlie Hills took over this one from French legend Andre Fabre and immediately found success at Goodwood at a 33-1 upset number. War Front colt should be backed stronger on the venture to the US and has quality from a mile to 10 furlongs, so he should handle this trip and demanding course very well.
7-GRAY'S FABLE: Fifth in this race at 18-1 last year, he was beaten favorite when chasing Hozier in Ellis Park's prep for this race. Deep closer will not get a favorable pace set-up as it appears on paper.
8-CHURCHTOWN: Woodbine-based 4-year-old makes his first foray to Kentucky Downs and lures the leading local pilot over the years, Julien Leparoux, who is looking to bounce back from a poor showing at Saratoga. This one's mile efforts are among his best on paper and expect him to be in the hunt throughout in terms of early pace.
9-GET HER NUMBER: Dirt performer has had some limited grass success, but meets a strong group here while stretching out in distance and changing surfaces. The lack of success from Del Mar shippers in KD stakes over the years doesn't inspire confidence, but jockey Gerardo Corrales does a super job here.
10-ANNAPOLIS: Strong 8-5 morning line favorite has been racing against top-class foes and has found his grove as a pure miler. His 10-for-11 lifetime mark in the exacta screams consistency and there's no reason to think he won't hold his form. The only question would be first time over the unique KD course. Obvious player, but short on value.
11-DHABAB: British export makes his second US start for Ed Vaughan after a flat fifth at Ellis Park in allowance company. Group 2-placed in 2021, he's got to find his old form to step up against these.
12-MAX K.O.: Joins Atone in a bid for trainer Mike Maker to win this race in back-to-back years and this is the only horse in the field to have won at Kentucky Downs. In fact, he's 2-for-2 here and the rest of the field is 0-for-4. Local wins were allowance and starter allowance level, and he hasn't sustained his late kick in his last couple of starts. Tough task.
Most Certain Exotics Contender:
ANNAPOLIS has finished out of the exacta just once in 11 starts, that in the Breeders' Cup Mile last year. New venue or not, he's trustworthy given the relatively soft pace here.
Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
STITCHED will be in the pace mix and has a penchant for playing at a price, winning at 46-1, 15-1 and 11-1 odds.
Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
Let's try to get STITCHED in the mix with ANNAPOLIS and ATONE. $20 win STITCHED. $40 exacta ANNAPOLIS over STITCHED. $20 exacta ATONE over STITCHED. $15 exacta STITCHED over ANNAPOLIS. $5 exacta STITCHTED over ATONE.
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