Monday Myths: Will Turf Bring Gulfstream Payoff Increases?

Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

The return to turf racing on Thursday at Gulfstream Park will provide an instant boost to payoffs.

Background:

A new turf course will be unveiled this week at Gulfstream Park as grass racing returns to the South Florida oval for the first time in more than five months. What can horseplayers expect in terms of returns?

Data Points:

I fired up the Betmix database to look at racing this year at Gulfstream Park in terms of turf and non-turf (dirt/synthetic) races. I surveyed the average win payoff for all races on the comparable surfaces and then normalized for field size. I also wanted to see the impact of surface/payouts based on the class of the races.

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In fields of any size so far this year, Gulfstream dirt/synthetic winners were 4.6-1 on average.
In fields of any size so far this year, Gulfstream turf winners were 5.3-1 on average.

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In normalized fields of 10 so far this year, Gulfstream dirt/synthetic winners were 5.6-1 on average.
In normalized fields of 10 so far this year, Gulfstream turf winners were 6.2-1 on average.

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In maiden fields of any size so far this year, Gulfstream dirt/synthetic winners were 4.6-1 on average.
In maiden fields of any size so far this year, Gulfstream turf winners were 5.8-1 on average.

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In claiming fields of any size so far this year, Gulfstream dirt/synthetic winners were 4.9-1 on average.
In claiming fields of any size so far this year, Gulfstream turf winners were 5.5-1 on average.

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In allowance fields of any size so far this year, Gulfstream dirt/synthetic winners were 4.6-1 on average.
In allowance fields of any size so far this year, Gulfstream turf winners were 4.9-1 on average.

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In stakes fields of any size so far this year, Gulfstream dirt/synthetic winners were 2.8-1 on average.
In stakes fields of any size so far this year, Gulfstream turf winners were 4.3-1 on average.

Bottom line:

At any comparative point, the turf average winning odds easily exceeded the dirt returns. The maiden turf races will be particularly fruitful based on the numbers and a welcome return for bettors. The assumption that prices are about to increase with the return to turf is confirmed.

Additional details:

You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, see how the same numbers may match up at your or favorite track besides Gulfstream.

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