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Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.
Assumption:
The hot start for Luis Saez at Saratoga is because he’s getting on the best mounts.
Background:
Horseplayers (and trainers) often will shrink the importance of riders and associate their success simply by who is the best passenger on the best horse. The winningest jockeys get the best mounts, or, the best mounts go to the jockeys atop the standings. It’s a self-fulfilling circle if you listen to the murmurs. Luis Saez’s 35 wins the first 4 weeks of the Spa meeting has him 7 in front of Jose Ortiz and 10 in front of Irad Ortiz, Jr. Let’s find out how he got here.
Data Points:
I dialed up the Betmix database to look at Saez’s mounts for the 2021 meet to date, comparing them to the other top-5 riders in the colony and also against his past Saratoga mounts in 2019 and 2020. The key metrics were win percentage, average odds per mount, favorites, $1 ROI for every $1 bet and longshots performance.
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Luis Saez ranks atop all jockeys in win % at the Saratoga meet with 10 or more mounts at 22.3%.
Other top-5 riders at the 2021 meet in terms of win %: Jose Ortiz (19.4%), Irad Ortiz Jr. (16.5%), Tyler Gaffalione (16.0%) and Joel Rosario (15.5%).
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Luis Saez’s average odds per mount at the 2021 Saratoga meet has been 7.49-1.
Other top-5 riders at the 2021 meet in terms average odds per mount: Irad Ortiz Jr. (4.38-1), Jose Ortiz (6.80-1), Joel Rosario (7.01-1) and Tyler Gaffalione (13.01-1).
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Luis Saez ranks second among all jockeys in terms of favorites ridden at the Saratoga meet with 27.
Other top-5 riders at the 2021 meet in terms of favorites ridden: Irad Ortiz Jr. (54), Jose Ortiz (23), Joel Rosario (20), Tyler Gaffalione (6).
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Luis Saez (17%, 27 of 158) ranks third in terms of percentage of mounts who have been favored at the 2021 Saratoga meet (minimum 10 favorites ridden).
Other top-5 riders at the 2021 meet in terms of percentage of mounts ridden who are favored: Irad Ortiz Jr. (36%, 54 of 152), Joel Rosario (18%, 20 of 110), Jose Ortiz (16%, 23 of 144) and Tyler Gaffalione (6.0%, 6 of 100).
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Luis Saez (37%) ranks second in terms of win percent when riding the favorite at the 2021 Saratoga meet (minimum 10 favorites ridden).
Other top-5 riders at the 2021 meet in terms of win percentage aboard favorites: Joel Rosario (45%), Tyler Gaffalione (33%), Jose Ortiz (30%) and Irad Ortiz Jr. (30%),
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Luis Saez ranks first among all jockeys in terms of $1 ROI for every $1 bet at the Saratoga meet (minimum 50 mounts) at $1.10. He’s the only jockey in the profit in that category (Tyler Gaffalione has been break-even).
Other top-5 riders at the 2021 meet in terms of $1 ROI for every $1 bet: Tyler Gaffalione ($1.00), Jose Ortiz ($0.97), Joel Rosario ($0.63) and Irad Ortiz Jr. ($0.55).
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Luis Saez has 2 longshot winners of 10-1 or more at the 2021 Saratoga meet, which is tied for second-best behind Eric Cancel’s 3.
Other top-5 riders at the 2021 meet in terms of longshot winners at 10-1 or more: Tyler Gaffalione (2), Joel Rosario (1). The Ortiz Brothers are a combined 0-38 with 10-1 or higher runners.
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Luis Saez’s 2021 vs. 2020 vs. 2019 Saratoga win percentage: 22% | 18% |13%
Luis Saez’s 2021 vs. 2020 vs. 2019 Saratoga average odds per mount: 7.5-1 | 8.3-1 |9.7-1
Luis Saez’s 2021 vs. 2020 vs. 2019 Saratoga $1 ROI for every $1 bet: $1.10 | $1.01 | $0.67
Luis Saez’s 2021 vs. 2020 vs. 2019 Saratoga percentage of mounts as favorites: 17% | 14% | 12%
Luis Saez’s 2021 vs. 2020 vs. 2019 Saratoga win % when riding favorites: 37% | 22% | 36%
Overall Findings:
Irad Ortiz Jr. has ridden by a wide margin the most favorites and highest percentage of mounts as the favorite at the 2021 meet. But it’s Luis Saez doing best in terms of overall wins, win percent and ROI, while riding the second or third-best series of horses according to the metrics studied. When looking at Saez over the past 3 summers, his success has increased while he’s ridden more favorites and lower-priced runners. After a down year in 2020 aboard favorites, he’s making the most of his best mounts this summer so far.
Bottom line:
No doubt the stock for Saez has improved from 2019-2020 and now into 2021 based on the percentage of favorites ridden and the average price of all his mounts. But he’s still riding arguably the third-best stock at the meet, give or take, behind Irad Ortiz Jr., Jose Ortiz and arguably Joel Rosario. He’s doing the most with his chances, which are carrying more clout at the same time.
Additional Details:
You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, which trainers has Saez had the most success with at Saratoga? Over the past 3 years, you’d be surprised to know it’s H. James Bond with 13 victories, 29% wins and a $1.42 ROI for every $1 bet.
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