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Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.
Assumption:
Santa Anita’s downhill turf sprints at 6-1/2 furlongs play more like routes than sprints.
Background:
You’ll often here handicappers and pundits talk about the unique, downhill turf sprints at Santa Anita and how much they like to find a route runner with enough speed to compete. Horses cutting back in distance in theory can be expected to sustain their stamina at the shorter distance. With the return of the downhill sprints last week at Santa Anita after being stopped in April 2019, how to play the course is back in the discussion.
Data Points:
I dialed up the Betmix database to look at every downhill turf sprint at Santa Anita from 2013 through April 2019. I analyzed the distances they raced prior to the turf sprint, and also the impact of those distances at various class levels.
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All SA downhill turf sprinters exiting races at 5-1/2 furlongs or less won 11% with a $0.88 ROI.
All SA downhill turf sprinters exiting races at 6 furlongs won 9% with a $0.72 ROI.
All SA downhill turf sprinters exiting races at 6-1/2 furlongs won 14% with a $0.77 ROI.
All SA downhill turf sprinters exiting races at 1 mile won 11% with a $0.75 ROI.
All SA downhill turf sprinters exiting races at longer than 1 mile won 11% with a $0.89 ROI.
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Maiden SA downhill turf sprinters exiting races at 5-1/2 furlongs or less won 13% with a $1.21 ROI.
Maiden SA downhill turf sprinters exiting races at 6 furlongs won 10% with a $0.82 ROI.
Maiden SA downhill turf sprinters exiting races at 6-1/2 furlongs won 13% with a $0.72 ROI.
Maiden SA downhill turf sprinters exiting races at 1 mile won 11% with a $0.85 ROI.
Maiden SA downhill turf sprinters exiting races at longer than 1 mile won 17% with a $1.89 ROI.
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Claiming SA downhill turf sprinters exiting races at 5-1/2 furlongs or less won 15% with a $1.07 ROI.
Claiming SA downhill turf sprinters exiting races at 6 furlongs or less won 12% with a $0.85 ROI.
Claiming SA downhill turf sprinters exiting races at 6-1/2 furlongs or less won 14% with a $0.78 ROI.
Claiming SA downhill turf sprinters exiting races at 1 mile won 10% with a $0.60 ROI.
Claiming SA downhill turf sprinters exiting races at longer than 1 mile won 3% with a $0.25 ROI.
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Allowance SA downhill turf sprinters exiting races at 5-1/2 furlongs or less won 8% with a $0.64 ROI.
Allowance SA downhill turf sprinters exiting races at 6 furlongs won 7% with a $0.68 ROI.
Allowance SA downhill turf sprinters exiting races at 6-1/2 furlongs won 14% with a $0.77 ROI.
Allowance SA downhill turf sprinters exiting races at 1 mile won 12% with a $0.78 ROI.
Allowance SA downhill turf sprinters exiting races at longer than 1 mile won 12% with a $0.86 ROI.
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Stakes SA downhill turf sprinters exiting races at 5-1/2 furlongs or less won 7% with a $0.37 ROI.
Stakes SA downhill turf sprinters exiting races at 6 furlongs won 9% with a $0.37 ROI.
Stakes SA downhill turf sprinters exiting races at 6-1/2 furlongs won 17% with a $0.84 ROI.
Stakes SA downhill turf sprinters exiting races at 1 mile won 11% with a $0.65 ROI.
Stakes SA downhill turf sprinters exiting races at longer than 1 mile won 14% with a $1.10 ROI.
Overall Findings:
Horses returning at the same 6-1/2 furlong distance had the highest win rate by 3 full percent over those adding or subtracting distance when you look at all downhill turf sprints – and the win rates for other distances are nearly identical. Among the maiden ranks, clearly the best situation is to be cutting back from races at longer than 1 mile – with a survey-best win rate and ROI. The claiming races tilted the other direction with horses stretching out in distance having the superior results. Finally, racing at 6-1/2 furlongs or farther in the allowance and stakes races proved more fruitful than adding distance.
Bottom line:
The importance of distance in your most-recent race very much appears to be class-enabled. With the better allowance and stakes horses, it’s statistically better to cut-back than stretch-out. With the cheaper claimers, the stretch-out takes precedence. That makes some logical handicapping sense when you consider the quality of animal and how speed typically dominates in the lower races. I wouldn’t go as far to say the downhill turf sprints in general play more like routes, but at the classier levels, the numbers say they do.
Additional Details:
You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, see which jockeys and trainers have had the most success with distance changes going into downhill turf sprints at Santa Anita.
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