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Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.
Assumption:
Look for horses cutting back in distance over Kentucky Downs’ demanding course.
Background:
Kentucky Downs opens Thursday with the first of 7 racecards for 2022. The short and unique meeting is held exclusively over turf footing and the course is undulating and challenging. Many handicappers seek horses who have run farther than entered today in their recent efforts.
Data Points:
I fired up the Betmix database to look at the past 5 years at Kentucky Downs and races at the two most heavily contested distances to see if the winners were horses adding distance, staying the same or, indeed, cutting back from farther trips. More than 250 races are in the database during that timeframe.
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At 6-1/2 furlongs, horses who raced at a shorter distance last time owned a 10.2% win rate. They had a $1.01 ROI for every $1 bet.
At 6-1/2 furlongs, horses who raced at the same distance last time owned a 7.8% win rate. They had a $0.61 ROI for every $1 bet.
At 6-1/2 furlongs, horses who raced at a longer distance last time owned a 8.2% win rate. They had a $0.67 ROI for every $1 bet.
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At 1 mile, horses who raced at a shorter distance last time owned a 6.3% win rate. They had a $0.64 ROI for every $1 bet.
At 1 mile, horses who raced at the same distance last time owned a 11.3% win rate. They had a $0.98 ROI for every $1 bet.
At 1 mile, horses who raced at a longer distance last time owned a 11.7% win rate. They had a $0.71 ROI for every $1 bet.
Bottom line:
The same distance and cut-back horses had decidedly more success at the mile trip, but in the 6-1/2 furlong sprint ranks, the stretch-out horses defied the horseplayer assumption and horses adding distance were most successful and most profitable. If you’re betting cut-back horses at Kentucky Downs, consider it more effective in the longer races.
Additional details:
You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, see which class levels these cut-back and stretch-out horses performed best in.
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