The richest prep so far on the Kentucky Derby trail takes place Saturday at Oaklawn with the $1 million Southwest. The 1-1/16 miles test is the second of the four-race Arkansas Derby series and matches an interesting cast from several different regions of the country. Mystik Dan won the 2024 Southwest in a campaign that saw him draped in roses in Louisville.
Let’s meet the contenders for Saturday’s Southwest (Race 10):
#1-GAMING: Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity winner and Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile runner-up looks to rebound from a flat third as the odds-on favorite in the Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity. Trainer Bob Baffert owns a record 6 Southwest victories, including 2022 (Newgrange) and 2023 (Arabian Knight). Flavien Prat jumps seats to Patch Adams, opening the mount for Juan Hernandez, who rode him in his debut score.
#2-PUBLISHER: 4-race maiden was runner-up to return rival American Promise in his Dec. 29 first spin over the Oaklawn oval. Trainer Steve Asmussen has 3 Southwest wins on his ledger, most recently Silver Prospector in 2020. Son, Erik, has ridden in each start to date, all top-3 placings. Pedigree includes American Pharoah, 2015 Triple Crown winner and Oaklawn stakes winner, as well as Derby runners-up Pioneer of the Nile and Proud Citizen in the first 2 generations.
#3-MONET’S MAGIC: Since starting his career 0-4, he’s put together back-to-back maiden and allowance victories. The Ben Colebrook-trained colt by Good Magic won his Oaklawn unveiling Dec. 29 over a sloppy track. Late runner will need a strong pace to set up his rally while making his stakes debut.
#4-TIZTASTIC: Tiz the Law colt was a 2-time turf winner at Kentucky Downs, including the Juvenile Mile Stakes. Transferred form to dirt with graded stakes placings at Churchill Downs in the Street Sense and Kentucky Jockey Club. Trainer Steve Asmussen has 3 Southwest wins on his ledger, most recently Silver Prospector in 2020. Son, Keith, takes the mount as Cristian Torres will ride Sandman in the Southwest.
#5-RENDER JUDGMENT: Trainer Kenny McPeek seeks back-to-back Southwest wins after Mystik Dan’s romp a year ago. Blinkers go on this son of Blame, whose 1-4 mark includes a Churchill maiden breaker. Fifth in the Kentucky Jockey Club and more recently third in Fair Grounds’ Gun Runner, he’ll get a new rider as Brian Hernandez Jr. will be at Gulfstream with Mystik Dan in the Pegasus World Cup. Emmanuel Esquivel, a regular for McPeek at Oaklawn, gets the call.
#6-SANDMAN: $1.2 million Tapit colt exits an Oaklawn allowance win Dec. 13 that got him back on the beam after finishing fifth in the Iroquois and third in the Street Sense at Churchill Downs. Finished neck behind rematched rival Tiztastic in the Street Sense over this 1-1/16 miles trip. Broke his maiden at Saratoga over Innovator, who last week finished a game third in the Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds.
#7-PATCH ADAMS (pictured): Closed as the 12-1 second individual wagering choice in last week’s Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 3 (only behind San Vicente winner Barnes at 6-1). Romped vs. maidens in his second start Nov. 30 at Churchill Downs by 10-1/2 lengths and received a 98 Beyer Speed Figure in the process. Son of Into Mischief is out of the 2-turn Tampa stakes-winning mare Well Humored. Trainer Brad Cox won the 2021 Southwest with eventual Belmont Stakes winner Essential Quality. Flavien Prat gives up several key mounts at Gulfstream on Pegasus World Cup Day to ride. Trio of bullet workouts at Payson Park in Florida signal sharpness.
#8-AMERICAN PROMISE: $750,000 colt is by 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify. Sixth-start maiden breaker last out Dec. 29 in wire-to-wire fashion. Ran clearly his best career race (95 Beyer Speed Figure) over a wet track. Close pursuits in prior starts behind Southwest rivals Monets Magic and Render Judgment doesn’t put him far off the locals. D. Wayne Lukas’ lone Southwest winner came with Big Sur in 1992.
#9-BON TEMPS: Maiden was an even, but non-threatening fourth in the Jan. 4 Smarty Jones Stakes at 28-1 odds and will be a bigger price here vs. a tougher field. D. Wayne Lukas’ lone Southwest winner came with Big Sur in 1992. Son of Lukas’ 2018 Preakness and Travers-placed Bravazo. Bullet workout Jan. 17 locally for this fourth career start.
#10-SPEED KING: Churchill debut sprint winner extended around 2 turns nicely with a game second in Remington Park’s Springboard Mile on Dec. 13. Led late and was collared by Coal Battle, who since returned to win Oaklawn’s Smarty Jones to open the Arkansas Derby trail. Jockey Rafael Bejarano is tied for the most Southwest wins all-time (3). Ron Moquett trained 2015 Southwest winner Far Right.
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