It’s had its share of different names over the past decade, but one thing has remained constant – the G1 Goodwood at Santa Anita has functioned as Southern California’s key prep for the Breeders’ Cup Classic. This year’s race offers some added intrigue, as four of the nine entrants are east coast based. Sprinkle in a three-year-old taking on elders and the typically strong Baffert contingent and you have the recipe for an interesting race on Saturday.
Below you will find my fair win odds for each of the runners scheduled to compete in the G1 Goodwood as well as my thoughts on some of the key contenders.
1 – Taif / 4% / 24-1
2 – Vodka Vodka / 4% / 24-1
3 – McAfee / 10% / 9-1
4 – Original Sin / 10% / 9-1
5 – Midnight Mammoth / 2% / 49-1
6 – Mr. A. P. / 7% / 13-1
7 – Forged Steel / 10% / 9-1
8 – Caldera / 25% / 3-1
9 – Nevada Beach / 28% / 5-2
The assessment of this year’s Goodwood begins with the winner of last year’s Goodwood, NEVADA BEACH (9). The clear ‘A’ player for trainer Bob Baffert in this spot Saturday, the son of Omaha Beach pulled off an 8-to-1 upset last year, earning a 101 Beyer Speed Figure in the process. A 101 Beyer in this race likely gets him back to the winner’s circle and would thrust him into the Breeders’ Cup Classic discussion, albeit as a fringe contender.
Nevada Beach is far from a cinch here, though. Not only has he yet to win a race where more than six horses have started, but Nevada Beach is also making his first start since a disastrous trip to Saudi Arabia when finishing twelfth in the G1 Saudi Cup. The layoff itself doesn’t give me pause given his conditioner – it’s the steady diet of drills he’s had without a race that make me curious.
This horse has been working steadily since June 13…yet hasn’t made a start? Perhaps this has been the plan all along, but to willingly bypass both the San Diego and the Pacific Classic over the summer at Del Mar makes me skeptical enough to take a shot against him at a short price.
I’m sure there’s going to be a large contingent drawn to MCAFEE (3) for trainer George Weaver off his six-plus length victory going nine-furlongs at Saratoga, but I’m not convinced this colt is of the grade one variety – and especially so at this distance. Yes, McAfee’s older sister Thorpedo Anna excelled in races at a mile-and-an-eighth, but this colt has lost ground in the final furlong in all but one of his two-turn races: the gate-to-wire victory at Saratoga on July 3. The field of allowance runners he defeated in early July leave quite a bit to be desired and I’m not sure McAfee will offer a large enough price to entice me to take a chance.
Both ORIGINAL SIN (4) and FORGED STEEL (7) were humbled by Knightsbridge in the G1 Pacific Classic last month, but there are no horses of Knightsbridge’s ability running here on Saturday. Forged Steel’s win in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita was solid enough to give him a chance against this bunch, but I don’t believe the pace scenario will be an advantageous one for him. As for Original Sin – he’s not a particularly good gate horse, and unless the pace completely comes apart down the stretch, I’m inclined to view him as nothing more than an underneath key in exotics.
MR. A. P. (6) will certainly have his backers, but that will largely be due to a runner-up effort in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile behind Champion Ted Noffey. His three turf tries this season have left me cold, and the move back to the main track feels as much like trying to find something with him as it is a vote of confidence by throwing him into the deep end of the pool.
Ultimately, I’m going land on CALDERA (8) for Saffie Joseph, Jr. Once under the tutelage of the late D. Wayne Lukas, Caldera missed more than a year of racing prior to making his debut for Saffie in South Florida back in April. A son of Liam’s Map, the My Racehorse owned colt has ripped off three-consecutive victories, all of which have come by more than a couple of lengths in the end. The distance of the Goodwood may be of slight concern, but his pedigree would suggest it shouldn’t be an issue and the way he’s finished his one-turn miles leads me to believe he can handle the nine furlongs. I would expect jockey Paco Lopez to allow a few of the speed to clear and then take up a stalking trip by the time the field hits the backstretch, biding his time before taking a shot around the far turn.
THE PICKS: 8-9-4-7
THE PLAY: 8) CALDERA TO WIN AT ODDS OF 3-1 OR GREATER
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