As the 150th running of the $5 million Kentucky Derby approaches, there are 10 horses I am looking forward to seeing in the 1 1/4-mile classic at Churchill Downs on May 4. These 10 horses are listed below in order of where they rank on my current Top 10:
1. FOREVER YOUNG
More than any other horse, I am looking forward to seeing Forever Young run in the Kentucky Derby. He continues to hold the No. 1 spot on my Top 10.
Forever Young is five for five. He made a splash in Japan last year before winning the Group III Saudi Derby and Group II UAE Derby this year.
While I have much respect for both Fierceness and Sierra Leone, I am picking Forever Young to win this year’s Kentucky Derby.
BloodHorse’s Sean Collins reported that Forever Young arrived at Churchill Downs from Dubai “early in the morning April 13 and has begun to settle in over the dirt track he’ll call home for the next three weeks. Remaining in Dubai after winning the Group II UAE Derby at Meydan Racecourse March 30, Forever Young departed the morning of April 10. After a pit stop in Brussels, Belgium, the undefeated colt landed in Chicago around 11:15 p.m.
“Transported to the Chicago Import Quarantine facility in West Dundee, Ill., Forever Young spent the typical time of 42 hours in quarantine before being cleared the night of April 12. By 9 p.m., he was on the road and arrived at Churchill Downs at 4:15 a.m. the next morning.”
Forever Young visited the main track at Churchill Downs for the first time last Sunday (April 14).
One reason Forever Young is my choice to win the Kentucky Derby is I believe that he is Japan’s best horse so far to try and win this race. Is he better than Derma Sotogake? I think so. Derma Sotogake last year won the UAE Derby, finished sixth in the Kentucky Derby, then ran a strong second in the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Classic.
Forever Young, not Derma Sotogake, has the distinction of being Japan’s highest-rated dirt 2-year-old in that country’s history.
Derma Sotogake lost three of his six starts in Japan as a 2-year-old, while Forever Young won all three of his races in Japan at 2.
In Derma Sotogake’s 3-year-old debut, he lost by 2 3/4 lengths when finishing third in the Saudi Derby at 1,600 meters (about one mile). He then won the UAE Derby at 1,900 meters (about 1 3/16 miles) by 5 1/2 lengths.
In Forever Young’s 3-year-old debut, the Real Steel colt rallied in the stretch and got up in the very last jump to win the Saudi Derby by a nose. He then won the UAE Derby by two lengths.
According to Thoro-Graph, Forever Young ran better than Derma Sotogake in both the Saudi Derby and UAE Derby.
As I have written many times, while I regard Beyer Speed Figures to be a useful tool for horseplayers, I do believe that Thoro-Graph numbers are superior. That’s because Thoro-Graph takes more factors into account than the Beyers. According to Thoro-Graph, “each number on a sheet represents a performance rating arrived at by using time of the race, beaten lengths, ground lost or saved on the turns, weight carried, and any effects wind conditions had on the time of the race.”
In the case of Thoro-Graph numbers, a horse who finished second, or even lower, can get a better number than the winner. This is one of the reasons I believe that Thoro-Graph is better than the Beyers. I consider a Thoro-Graph number to be a much truer reflection of a horse’s performance than a Beyer. Thoro-Graph’s approach reflects the reality that the winner is not necessarily the horse who ran the best race.
The winner of a race never gets a lower Beyer Speed Figure than the horse who finished second, the horse who finished second never gets a lower Beyer than the horse who finished third, and so on down through the order of finish.
The Thoro-Graph number for Derma Sotogake’s Saudi Derby effort was a 6 1/2. Forever Young’s number in this year’s Saudi Derby was a 1.
Derma Sotogake improved dramatically to a Thoro-Graph number of 1 1/2 in the UAE Derby. But even that excellent number was not as good as Forever Young’s when he won the UAE Derby this year.
Secretariat.com’s Steve Haskin wrote this week: “What can you say about a horse who wins in Japan getting a 5 3/4 Thoro-Graph number, however that is computed, then travels to Saudi Arabia for the [about] one-mile Saudi Derby and runs a 1 Thoro-Graph number, winning despite a wide trip, not changing leads down that long stretch, and still closing relentlessly to nail a pretty fast American runner [Book’em Danno]. With such a hard race under him he then travels to Dubai for the UAE Derby, stretching out to [about] 1 3/16 miles against a much stronger field, is forced to go wide again, and runs down a 4-year-old Argentine-bred colt who was opening up a five-length lead on the rest of the field. Not only did Forever Young win by two lengths and not bounce off the Saudi Derby, he ran another 1 Thoro-Graph number, giving him the fastest back-to-back numbers of any 3-year-old. That was backed up by his Ragozin pairing of 6 and 6, also the fastest back-back-to-back numbers of any 3-year-old. So now the question is, what should we expect in the Kentucky Derby, with him having to travel again? He did arrive safely, so the first step is out of the way. This colt seems to have a very high ceiling and he is undefeated in three countries. Let’s say the Japanese are due after several failed attempts by horses far slower than Forever Young. So if not now, when?”
Haskin had noted two weeks ago that, with Forever Young’s Thoro-Graph numbers of 1 in Saudi Arabia and 1 in Dubai, “no 3-year-old has even come close to running back-to-back numbers that fast, and the fact that he was able to pair up that number strongly suggests he can now move forward off it.”
Yes, that’s what Forever Young’s Thoro-Graph pattern strongly suggests. I will not be surprised if he does indeed move forward off his UAE Derby performance.
In my opinion, adding to the distinct possibility that Forever Young will make a forward move in the Kentucky Derby is he’s trained by Yoshito Yahagi. I have seen enough of Yahagi’s work to consider him to be an elite horseman. I expect Yahagi to have Forever Young as ready as humanly possible to run a biggie on the first Saturday in May. Yahagi being in Forever Young’s corner is a major reason I think this colt represents Japan’s best chance yet to win the Kentucky Derby.
I became a believer in Yahagi when he won not one, but two Breeders’ Cup races at Del Mar in 2021. He shocked the racing world by winning the BC Distaff with 49-1 longshot Marche Lorraine. Yahagi also won the BC Filly & Mare Turf with 4-1 Loves Only You.
In 2022, Yahagi won the $20 million Saudi Cup, the world’s richest horse race, with Panthalassa. As a prime example of Yahagi’s tremendous ability as a trainer, Panthalassa had not raced on dirt prior to the Saudi Cup.
I’ve heard a number of people express their concern that Forever Young is likely to have to deal with dirt kickback in a 20-horse Kentucky Derby, something he pretty much did not encounter in either the Saudi Derby or UAE Derby due to being kept wide in those races.
“For the most part, those ground-conceding tactics [in the Saudi Derby and UAE Derby] have been by design to keep Forever Young from being pelted by kickback from horses in front of him,” T.D. Thornton wrote for the Thoroughbred Daily News this week. “His connections are on record as saying that the colt dislikes the dirt spray, and he was equipped with a sort of facemask (like blinkers without the cups) in his last race at Meydan.
“Is Forever Young’s aversion to kickback a reason to discount his chances in the Kentucky Derby? Probably not if you otherwise like his chances…He won three times in Japan at age 2 despite being in spots where he was forced to take at least some kickback.”
These days we constantly see Japan succeed in major Thoroughbred races all over the globe.
I wrote this for Xpressbet.com prior to this year’s Saudi Cup: “How much of a force have the Japanese become in Thoroughbred racing? One need not look past the exploits of Japan’s Equinox, a fantastic equine athlete widely regarded as the best racehorse on the planet last year.”
If the exceptionally swift Skelly could talk, I have no doubt that he would tell you how difficult it is to beat a Japanese horse.
Just last Saturday at Oaklawn Park, Skelly won the Grade III Count Fleet Sprint Handicap in front-running fashion by three lengths. He set a torrid pace (:21.52, :43.88, :56.04) and completed his six-furlong trip in 1:08.82.
Skelly now has won eight of his last nine starts. And who was the only horse to defeat Skelly during those nine starts? It was none other than a Japanese horse by the name of Remake in the Group I, $2 million Dubai Golden Shaheen on March 30.
Prior to this year’s Saudi Cup, Daily Racing Form’s Marcus Hersh wrote: “Even as Japanese racehorses have ascended over the last decade, becoming the most powerful force in international competition, the race the Japanese most covet, the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, has eluded them. In fact, a Japanese horse easily could win a Kentucky Derby before one wins an Arc. It could happen as soon as this year…Forever Young at this early stage of his career looks as strong as any Japanese 3-year-old with designs on the [Kentucky] Derby.”
Any way you slice it, the record by UAE Derby starters in the Kentucky Derby is a terrible 0 for 19. In fact, no UAE Derby participant has finished better than fifth in the Run for the Roses.
But I believe that Forever Young might have what it takes to finally bring an end to the Kentucky Derby drought by UAE starters.
2. FIERCENESS
I am looking forward to seeing whether the “good” or the “bad” Fierceness shows up in the Kentucky Derby.
If it’s the Fierceness who won his first career start by 11 1/4 lengths, the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Juvenile by 6 1/4 lengths and the Grade I Florida Derby by a record 13 1/2 lengths, there is no question that he will be mighty tough to beat in the Kentucky Derby.
Saffie Joseph Jr. trains Kentucky Derby candidate Catalytic, who finished a distant second to Fierceness in the Florida Derby.
“If Fierceness runs back to his last race nobody beats him,” Joseph said to Daily Racing Form’s Mike Welsch on Monday (April 15). “Sierra Leone is obviously second best and after that it’s wide open. I think my horse has a lot of room to improve. The [Kentucky] Derby is the kind of race first you get there, and then you hope for the best.”
Fierceness has suffered two stinging defeats in his five starts to date. Backed down to 1-2 favoritism in the Grade I Champagne Stakes last year, the Kentucky-bred City of Light colt lost by 20 1/4 lengths while finishing seventh. Sent away as a 1-5 favorite in the Grade III Holy Bull Stakes in his 2024 debut, he lost by 3 1/2 lengths while finishing third.
Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher trains Fierceness. If you ask me, Fierceness has looked something like an American version of Europe’s supremely talented but also unreliable Auguste Rodin.
Auguste Rodin has won seven of his last 10 starts, highlighted by victories in such important events as the Group I Epsom Derby, Group I Irish Derby, Group I Irish Champion Stakes and Grade I BC Turf.
But also in his last 10 races, Auguste Rodin ran a stinker three times. He lost by 21 3/4 lengths when finishing 12th in England’s Group I Two Thousand Guineas. He was eased home when finishing last in the Group I King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes in England. And in Auguste Rodin’s most recent appearance under silks, he lost by 21 1/2 lengths when finishing 12th in the Group I Dubai Sheema Classic on March 30.
3. SIERRA LEONE
I am looking forward to seeing if Sierra Leone can make his move early enough to be first or second a furlong from home in the Kentucky Derby. That’s because if the Kentucky-bred Gun Runner colt is not first or second with a furlong to go, I believe the odds are against him winning based on what has occurred in the last 61 years.
As I noted for Xpressbet.com last week, of the last 61 Kentucky Derby winners, 93% were first or second with a furlong to go.
In the 1 1/8-mile Risen Star on a sloppy track at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots on Feb. 17, Sierra Leone was fourth a furlong out before charging home to prevail by a half-length for trainer Chad Brown.
In the 1 1/8-mile Blue Grass at Keeneland on April 6, Sierra Leone again was fourth a furlong out before rallying to win going away by 1 1/2 lengths.
At least Sierra Leone did manage to be in front by a head a furlong from home after trailing early in the 1 1/8-mile Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct last Dec. 2. That indicates it’s far from impossible that Sierra Leone will be first or second a furlong out in the Kentucky Derby.
Look, I consider Sierra Leone to be a very talented colt. I certainly view him as a major player in the Kentucky Derby.
Not only has Sierra Leone won both starts this year, he’s been flattered by what two of his Risen Star victims subsequently achieved. Catching Freedom took the Grade II Louisiana Derby on March 23. Resilience won the Grade II Wood Memorial on April 6.
However, based on Sierra Leone’s two performances this year, I just can’t help wondering if he will make his move early enough to be first or second with a furlong left to go on May 4. I find it easy to envision him coming on late to finish second, third or fourth.
The TDN’s Thornton has made what I think is an interesting observation regarding Sierra Leone’s Blue Grass victory.
“Despite being visually arresting, the timing of Sierra Leone’s finish was on the tepid side,” Thornton noted. “While the early part of the Blue Grass featured revved-up opening quarter-mile splits of :23.15 and :23.33 [for the first half-mile], Sierra Leone closed ground through a final furlong in :13.43. That’s the slowest last eighth among all the nine points-awarding preps run at 1 1/8 miles in 2023-24.”
Also, as I wrote last week, Sierra Leone’s reluctance to go into the starting gate prior to the Blue Grass has to be taken into consideration when evaluating his chances to win the Kentucky Derby. It is true that Sierra Leone overcame such behavior and still won Blue Grass. But when Sierra Leone finds himself amidst a much larger crowd on hand for the Kentucky Derby, what if he acts like that again?
4. CATCHING FREEDOM
I am looking forward to seeing if Catching Freedom can become the first winner of the Louisiana Derby to go on and capture the Kentucky Derby since Grindstone all the way back in 1996.
A Kentucky-bred Constitution colt trained by Brad Cox, Catching Freedom rallied from last in a field of 11 to win the Louisiana Derby by one length.
Like Sierra Leone, Catching Freedom is a come-from-behind type who is rather iffy in my eyes as to whether he will be able to be first or second a furlong from home on May 4. Again, in the last 61 Kentucky Derbies, only four Kentucky Derby winners -- Grindstone in 1996, Giacomo in 2005, Animal Kingdom in 2011 and Rich Strike in 2022 -- were not first or second a furlong out.
5. DORNOCH
I am looking forward to seeing if Dornoch can rebound after finishing fourth, 6 1/2 lengths behind the victorious Sierra Leone, in the Blue Grass.
Prior to the Blue Grass, Dornach won the Grade II Fountain of Youth Stakes by 1 3/4 lengths in front-running fashion, though it must be pointed out that he took advantage of being in a race that was depleted by the scratches of Merit, Victory Avenue, Locked and Speak Easy.
Don’t forget that Dornoch is the only horse to have defeated Sierra Leone. Not only that, when Dornoch nosed out Sierra Leone in the Remsen, the Danny Gargan-trained colt did so despite bouncing off the inside rail during the stretch run. On the other hand, Sierra Leone ran a huge race from far off the pace and despite racing wide in the Remsen to barely lose, while Dornach benefited from a track that was playing very kind to inside speed.
Dornach, a Kentucky-bred Good Magic colt, is a full brother to 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage.
6. HONOR MARIE
I am looking forward to seeing how Honor Marie does in the Kentucky Derby after finishing second in the Louisiana Derby.
Honor Marie demonstrated a fondness for the main track at Churchill Downs last fall by posting two wins and a second from three starts. He stormed home to win the Grade II Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes after trailing early in the field of eight.
A Kentucky-bred Honor Code colt trained by Whit Beckman, Honor Marie is, to me, in the same boat as Sierra Leone and Catching Freedom in terms of being able to rally early enough to be first or second a furlong from home in the Kentucky Derby.
Honor Marie does not actually turn 3 until May 4, the date of the Kentucky Derby.
7. MYSTIK DAN
I am looking forward to seeing if Mystik Dan can show everyone that he is able to win a Grade I race on a fast track. His best performance by far to date came when he won the Grade III Southwest Stakes on a muddy track, an effort that produced a 101 Beyer Speed Figure.
In his next start after the Southwest, Mystik Dan lost by 6 1/4 lengths on a fast track when finishing third to Muth and Just Steel in the Grade I Arkansas Derby.
A Kentucky-bred Goldencents colt trained by Kenny McPeek, Mystik Dan did record a 96 Beyer Speed Figure on dry land when he won a 5 1/2-furlong maiden sprint by 7 3/4 lengths last Nov. 12 on Churchill’s main track.
As far as Mystik Dan is concerned, what if the Kentucky Derby is contested on a wet track? He no doubt will become a lot more appealing to bettors if Louisville does get the sort of weather that makes umbrellas important.
8. DOMESTIC PRODUCT
I am looking forward to seeing what Domestic Product can do if he gets a faster pace than when he won the Grade III Tampa Bay Derby. He won that race by just a neck and recorded only an 82 Beyer. But I think Domestic Product deserved extra credit for his come-from-behind victory due to a ridiculously slow early tempo (:25.25, :51.14, 1:16.21).
It takes a pretty darn good colt to close into a pace like that and win.
Chad Brown trains the Kentucky-bred Practical Joke colt.
9. ENDLESSLY
I am looking forward to seeing if Endlessly runs in the Kentucky Derby or the Grade II American Turf on the same card.
If Endlessly’s connections opt to go for the roses, I wouldn’t rule it out that he will give a good account of himself in his first start on dirt. All six of his races have been on turf or synthetic. Is he better on those surfaces than on dirt? I’d say that he probably is, especially since his workouts on dirt don’t exactly get the pulse racing.
But I am still willing to think Endlessly just might make his presence felt during the stretch run of the Kentucky Derby because it appears to me that he does have a great deal of ability. And any horse with a great deal of ability is always dangerous.
Trained by Michael McCarthy, Endlessly comes off an emphatic four-length win in the Grade III Jeff Ruby on Turfway Park’s synthetic surface. The Kentucky-bred Oscar Performance colt’s lone loss came when he finished eighth in the Grade I BC Juvenile Turf.
10. STRONGHOLD
I am looking forward to seeing how the winner of the Grade I Santa Anita Derby fares in the Kentucky Derby. You have to admire Stronghold’s consistency for trainer Phil D’Amato. The Kentucky-bred Ghostzapper colt has finished first or second in all six career starts.
It’s also to Stronghold’s credit that he earned his maiden diploma in a one-mile contest at Churchill Downs last Oct. 1. Among the vanquished on that occasion were fellow Kentucky Derby candidates Resilience and Track Phantom. Resilience recently won the Grade II Wood Memorial. Track Phantom won this year’s Grade III Lecomte.
DERBY STRIKES SYSTEM UPDATE
I came up with my Derby Strikes System in 1999 to try and identify those horses having the best chance to win the Kentucky Derby from BOTH tactical and historical perspectives.
My Derby Strikes System consists of eight categories. When a horse does not qualify in one of the eight categories, the horse receives a strike.
The eight categories are listed further below in this blog.
Because stakes races in this country were not graded until 1973, I can’t go further back than that year when calculating the number of strikes for past Kentucky Derby winners. Two of my eight categories deal with graded stakes races.
A number of the categories in my Derby Strikes System are tied to a Kentucky Derby being run on the first Saturday in May. Consequently, when the 2020 running was switched from May 2 to Sept. 5 due to the pandemic, it rendered the Derby Strikes System unworkable that year. But when the Kentucky Derby again was run on its traditional date of the first Saturday in May in 2021, the Derby Strikes System again was viable.
Mage last year joined Mine That Bird as the only two Kentucky Derby winners to have more than two strikes.
Mine That Bird had four strikes. Mage had three.
Despite there being a three-strike winner last year, history tells us that a horse with zero strikes or only one strike has a much better chance to win the Kentucky Derby than a horse with two strikes or more.
According to the Derby Strikes System, excluding the Kentucky Derby of 2020 when the race was run in September, 80% of the Kentucky Derby winners (40 out of 50) have had zero strikes or one strike from 1973 through 2023.
There have been eight Kentucky Derby winners with two strikes. Cannonade (1974), Ferdinand (1986), Sea Hero (1993), Funny Cide (2003), Giacomo (2005), Justify (2018), Country House (2019) and Rich Strike (2022).
The strikes for a number of Kentucky Derby candidates are listed below:
ZERO STRIKES
Dornoch
Encino
Endlessly
Forever Young
Mystik Dan
Stronghold
ONE STRIKE
Catalytic (Category 2)
Catching Freedom (Category 3)
Domestic Product (Category 3)
Fierceness (Category 4)
Honor Marie (Category 3)
Sierra Leone (Category 3)
Track Phantom (Category 4)*
West Saratoga (Category 4)
TWO STRIKES
Deterministic (Categories 3 and 5)**
Grand Mo the First (Categories 2 and 3)
Just Steel (Categories 2 and 3)
Resilience (Categories 4 and 6)
Society Man (Categories 2 and 8)
THREE STRIKES
Common Defense (Categories 2, 4 and 5)
Epic Ride (Categories 1, 2 and 4)
Just a Touch (Categories 2, 4 and 7)
T O Password (Categories 1, 2 and 7)
*Track Phantom’s only official strike is in Category 4 for not being able to improve or hold his position during the final furlong of the Louisiana Derby. Meanwhile, a horse gets a strike in Category 6 if blinkers are added or removed in a horse’s final start before the Kentucky Derby. The thinking behind this category is if a horse is good enough to win the Kentucky Derby, the trainer is not making an equipment change so late in the game. Indications are that Track Phantom is going to have blinkers added for the Kentucky Derby. If that does happen, while Track Phantom officially is a one-strike horse, I personally will be considering him a two-strike horse because of blinkers being added to his equipment on May 4.
**Trainer Christophe Clement said this week that Deterministic, who finished eighth as a 4-5 favorite in the Wood Memorial, is “unlikely” to run in the Kentucky Derby. “He’s not in or out because a decision has not been made, but it’s unlikely he will run in the race based on the way he ran last time.” Clemente added that he will talk to the owners later this week and a decision on the Kentucky Derby will be made after that.
WINNER’S STRIKES GOING BACK TO 1973
As mentioned earlier, because stakes races in this country were not graded until 1973, I can’t go back further than that year when determining the number of strikes for Kentucky Derby winners. Again, this is because two of my eight categories deal with graded stakes races.
The strikes for each official Kentucky Derby winner going back to 1973 are listed below:
2023 Mage (3 strikes) Categories 2, 4 and 7)
2022 Rich Strike (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 3)
2021 Mandaloun (1 strike) Category 4*
2020 race run in September
2019 Country House (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 3**
2018 Justify (2 strikes) Categories 1 and 7
2017 Always Dreaming (1 strike) Category 1
2016 Nyquist (0 strikes)
2015 American Pharoah (0 strikes)
2014 California Chrome (0 strikes)
2013 Orb (0 strikes)
2012 I’ll Have Another (0 strikes)
2011 Animal Kingdom (0 strikes)
2010 Super Saver (1 strike) Category 4
2009 Mine That Bird (4 strikes) Categories 1, 4, 5 and 9
2008 Big Brown (0 strikes)
2007 Street Sense (0 strikes)
2006 Barbaro (0 strikes)
2005 Giacomo (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 5
2004 Smarty Jones (0 strikes)
2003 Funny Cide (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 8
2002 War Emblem (0 strikes)
2001 Monarchos (0 strikes)
2000 Fusaichi Pegasus (1 strike) Category 6
1999 Charismatic (1 strike) Category 5
1998 Real Quiet (0 strikes)
1997 Silver Charm (1 strike) Category 4
1996 Grindstone (0 strikes)
1995 Thunder Gulch (0 strikes)
1994 Go for Gin (0 strikes)
1993 Sea Hero (2 strikes) Categories 3 and 5
1992 Lil E. Tee (0 strikes)
1991 Strike the Gold (0 strikes)
1990 Unbridled (1 strike) Category 3
1989 Sunday Silence (0 strikes)
1988 Winning Colors (0 strikes)
1987 Alysheba (1 strike) Category 2
1986 Ferdinand (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 4
1985 Spend a Buck (0 strikes)
1984 Swale (0 strikes)
1983 Sunny’s Halo (1 strike) Category 1
1982 Gato Del Sol (1 strike) Category 3
1981 Genuine Risk (1 strike) Category 1
1980 Pleasant Colony (0 strikes)
1979 Spectacular Bid (0 strikes)
1978 Affirmed (0 strikes)
1977 Seattle Slew (0 strikes)
1976 Bold Forbes (0 strikes)
1975 Foolish Pleasure (0 strikes)
1974 Cannonade (2 strikes) Categories 3 and 4
1973 Secretariat (0 strikes)
*Medina Spirit (0 strikes) finished first but was disqualified from purse money
**Maximum Security (0 strikes) finished first but was disqualified and placed 17th
MY DERBY STRIKES SYSTEM’S CATEGORIES
What are the eight categories in my Derby Strikes System? They are listed below:
1. THE GRADED STAKES CATEGORY. (The horse ran in a graded stakes race before March 31.) This points out horses who have competed against tough competition prior to March 31 rather than at the last minute in April, enabling the horse to be properly battle-tested. (Exceptions: Going back to the introduction of graded stakes races in the U.S. in 1973, only Genuine Risk in 1980, Sunny’s Halo in 1983, Mine That Bird in 2009 and Always Dreaming in 2017 have won the Kentucky Derby without running in a graded stakes race at 2 or early at 3 before March 31.)
2. THE WIN IN A GRADED STAKES CATEGORY. (The horse has won a graded stakes race.) This points out horses who have shown they have the class to win a graded stakes race. (Exceptions: Ferdinand in 1986, Alysheba in 1987, Funny Cide in 2003, Giacomo in 2005, Rich Strike in 2022 and Mage in 2023 are the only exceptions going back to the introduction of U.S. graded stakes races in 1973; Alysheba in 1987 did finish first in the Blue Grass, only to be disqualified and placed third.)
3. THE EIGHTH POLE CATEGORY. (In either of his or her last two starts before the Kentucky Derby, the horse was first or second with a furlong to go.) This points out horses who were running strongly at the eighth pole, usually in races at 1 1/16 or 1 1/8 miles. By running strongly at the same point in the Kentucky Derby, a horse would be in a prime position to win the roses. Keep in mind that 57 of the last 61 Kentucky Derby winners through 2023 have been first or second with a furlong to run. From 1962 through 2023, the only four Kentucky Derby winners who were not first or second with a furlong to run were Grindstone, fourth with a furlong to run in 1996; Giacomo, sixth with a furlong to go in 2005; Animal Kingdom, third a furlong out in 2011 when only a half-length from being second; and Rich Strike, third with a furlong to go in 2022. (Exceptions: Going back to 1955, the Kentucky Derby winners who weren’t either first or second a furlong from the finish in his or her last two starts have been Tim Tam in 1958, Carry Back in 1961, Cannonade in 1974, Gato Del Sol in 1982, Unbridled in 1990, Sea Hero in 1993 and Rich Strike in 2022, with Canonero II in 1971 unknown.)
4. THE GAMENESS CATEGORY. (The horse’s finish position in both of his or her last two races before the Kentucky Derby was no worse than his or her running position at the eighth pole.) This points out horses who don’t like to get passed in the final furlong. (Exceptions: Going back to 1955, the exceptions have been Venetian Way in 1960, Cannonade in 1974, Foolish Pleasure in 1975, Ferdinand in 1986, Silver Charm in 1997, Mine That Bird in 2009, Super Saver in 2010, Mandaloun in 2021 and Mage in 2023, with Canonero II in 1971 unknown.)
5. THE DISTANCE FOUNDATION CATEGORY. (The horse has finished at least third in a 1 1/8-mile race or longer before the Kentucky Derby.) This points out horses who have the proper foundation and/or stamina for the Kentucky Derby distance. (Exceptions: Going back to 1955, the only exceptions have been Kauai King in 1966, Sea Hero in 1993, Charismatic in 1999, Giacomo in 2005 and Mine That Bird in 2009.)
6. THE NO ADDING OR REMOVING BLINKERS CATEGORY. (The horse has not added blinkers or had blinkers removed in his or her final start at 3 before the Kentucky Derby.) This seems to point out that, if a horse is good enough to win the Kentucky Derby, the trainer is not searching for answers so late in the game. (Going back to 1973, no horse has added blinkers or had blinkers removed in his or her last start at 3 before winning the Kentucky Derby.)
7. THE RACED AS A 2-YEAR-OLD CATEGORY. (The horse made at least one start as a 2-year-old.) (Exceptions: Apollo in 1882, Justify in 2018 and Mage in 2023. Going back to 1937, horses unraced as a 2-year-old now are a combined 3 for 73 in the Kentucky Derby through 2023. During this period, the only horses to finish second or third in the Kentucky Derby without having raced at 2 were Hampden, who finished third in 1946; Coaltown, second in 1948; Agitate, third in 1974; Reinvested, third in 1982; Strodes Creek, second in 1994; Curlin, third in 2007; Bodemeister, second in 2012; and Battle of Midway, third in 2017.)
8. THE NOT A GELDING CATEGORY. (The horse is not a gelding.) (Exceptions: Funny Cide in 2003 and Mine That Bird in 2009 are the only geldings to win the Kentucky Derby since Clyde Van Dusen in 1929.)
MY EARLY KENTUCKY DERBY ODDS
My updated early Kentucky Derby odds:
3-1 Fierceness
7-2 Sierra Leone
8-1 Forever Young
10-1 Catching Freedom
12-1 Just a Touch
20-1 Domestic Product
20-1 Dornoch
20-1 Encino
20-1 Endlessly
20-1 Honor Marie
20-1 Just Steel
20-1 Mystik Dan
20-1 Resilience
20-1 Stronghold
20-1 T O Password
20-1 Track Phantom
30-1 Catalytic
30-1 Society Man
30-1 West Saratoga
50-1 Grand Mo the First
NOTE: Deterministic is not listed because, as mentioned earlier, he is “unlikely” to run in the Kentucky Derby, according to trainer Christophe Clement.
TOP 10 IN THIS WEEK’S NTRA TOP THOROUGHBRED POLL
Master of The Seas debuts at No. 4 on the Top 10 in the NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll this week following his clear-cut 2 1/4-length win as a 3-5 favorite in Keeneland’s Grade I, $600,000 Maker’s Mark Mile last Friday (April 12). Charlie Appleby trains the 6-year-old Irish-bred Dubawi gelding.
Adare Manor also is a newcomer on the Top 10 this week after her decisive 5 1/2-length win as a 3-5 favorite in Oaklawn Park’s Grade I Apple Blossom Handicap last Saturay. Trained by Hall of Famer Bob Baffert, the 5-year-old Kentucky-bred Uncle Mo mare led past every pole in the $1.25 million event.
Below is the Top 10 in this week’s NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll
Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)
1. 298 Senor Buscador (23)
2. 243 National Treasure (4)
3. 150 Idiomatic (3)
4. 143 Master of The Seas
5. 141 White Abarrio
6. 97 Saudi Crown
7. 96 Adare Manor
8. 86 First Mission
9. 71 Newgate
10. 59 Skelly
Though they did not make the Top 10, Laurel River received two first-place votes, while The Chosen Vron received one first-place vote.
TOP 10 IN THIS WEEK’S NTRA TOP THREE-YEAR-OLD POLL
Even though Encino won Keeneland’s Grade III Lexington Stakes last Saturday, he did not crack the Top 10 in this week’s NTRA Top Three-Year-Old Poll.
Below is the Top 10 in this week’s NTRA Top Three-Year-Old Poll:
Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)
1. 316 Sierra Leone (22)
2. 303 Fierceness (10)
3. 235 Muth (1)
4. 185 Catching Freedom
5. 157 Stronghold
6. 118 Nysos
7. 97 Forever Young
8. 82 Resilience
9. 57 Just a Touch
10. 49 Endlessly
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