Sierra Leone is going to have considerable support in the 150th running of the $5 million Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on May 4.
And why not? If not for one loss by a scant nose, Sierra Leone would be undefeated in four career starts. His powerful late kick has produced victories this year in the Grade II Risen Star Stakes in Louisiana and Grade I Blue Grass Stakes in Kentucky.
Then just what is my problem with Sierra Leone? Well, my problem with him vis-a-vis the 1 1/4-mile Kentucky Derby is that his powerful kick in both wins this year has occurred so late in the race.
To put it another way, I question whether Sierra Leone will be first or second a furlong from home in the Run for Roses. Why is that so important?
Of the last 61 Kentucky Derby winners, 93% were first or second with a furlong to go.
In the 1 1/8-mile Risen Star on a sloppy track at Fair Grounds at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots on Feb. 17, Sierra Leone was fourth a furlong out before charging home to prevail by a half-length.
In the 1 1/8-mile Blue Grass at Keeneland last Saturday (April 6), Sierra Leone again was fourth with a furlong left to run before storming home to win going away by 1 1/2 lengths.
Yes, those two victories suggest that Sierra Leone is going to love going a furlong farther on the first Saturday in May.
And, yes, after trailing early among 10 starters in the 1 1/8-mile Remsen Stakes on a muddy surface at Aqueduct late last year, Sierra Leone rallied early enough to be leading by a head a furlong from home. Even though the Remsen indicates it’s far from impossible that he will be first or second a furlong out in the Kentucky Derby, I just can’t help being skeptical that is going to happen based on his two performances this year.
If I’m right and Sierra Leone isn’t first or second with a furlong to go in the Kentucky Derby, what’s happened in the last 61 years indicates that the odds are stacked against him winning the roses.
In the last 61 renewals of the Kentucky Derby, only four winners -- that’s right, only four -- were worse than second a furlong from the finish. The four were Grindstone in 1996, Giacomo in 2005, Animal Kingdom in 2011 and Rich Strike in 2022.
There have been Kentucky Derby winners who were far back early, yet made their move early enough to be first or second at the eighth pole. Just last year, for instance, Mage was 16th at one point in the field of 18. But he was second at the furlong marker, just a head off the lead, before prevailing by one length.
In 2013, Orb was 17th on the backstretch in the field of 19. He came on to be second at the eighth pole before drawing clear to win by 2 1/2 lengths.
In 2009, Mine That Bird was last among 19 starters in the early furlongs. Where was he at the eighth pole? He was in front by one length.
In my Kentucky Derby Top 10, I again have Forever Young ranked No. 1 and Fierceness at No. 2. I think they both have a much better chance than Sierra Leone of being first or second a furlong from home.
Sierra Leone? I do have him ranked No. 3. Look, I respect him. He’s obviously an extremely talented colt.
But another concern I have with regard to Sierra Leone in the Kentucky Derby was his reluctance to go into the starting gate prior to the Blue Grass. It’s true that he managed to overcome such obstinate behavior and still win the race. But what if he acts like that again before the Kentucky Derby?
While No. 1, No. 2 and No. 3 are the same on my Top 10 this week as was the case last week, there is a major shuffling from No. 4 through No. 10 following last Saturday’s Blue Grass, Santa Anita Derby and Wood Memorial.
To a large extent the shuffling is because I am now focusing on horses with zero strikes or one strike in my Derby Strikes System. From 1973 through 2023, 40 out of 50 (80%) of the Kentucky Derby winners have had zero strikes or one strike. I will explain my Derby Strikes System a bit later in this blog.
Below is my current Kentucky Derby Top 10:
Rank Horse (Last Week)
1. Forever Young (1)
2. Fierceness (2)
3. Sierra Leone (3)
4. Catching Freedom (5)
5. Dornoch (4)
6. Honor Marie (8)
7. Mystik Dan (9)
8. Domestic Product (NR)
9. Endlessly (NR)
10. Stronghold (NR)
Due largely to the fact they have fewer than two strikes in my Derby Strikes System, Domestic Product, Endlessly and Stronghold move onto my Top 10 this week.
Exiting my Top 10 are Deterministic (who was No. 6 last week), Just a Touch (No. 7) and Just Steel (No. 10). Deterministic and Just Steel each have two strikes. Just a Touch has three strikes.
LEXINGTON STAKES SELECTIONS
Keeneland’s Lexington Stakes, the final race this year offering Kentucky Derby qualifying points, will bring together a field of 10 to do battle at 1 1/16 miles this Saturday (April 13).
The Lexington has 20-10-6-4-2 points up for grabs toward the Kentucky Derby.
Hades goes into the Lexington with 30 Kentucky Derby points. That’s currently not enough points to have him in the Run for the Roses. A Lexington victory would get Hades into the Kentucky Derby starting gate.
Back on Feb. 3, Hades won the Grade III Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park (pictured above). Domestic Product finished second. Fierceness ran third as the 1-5 favorite.
After the Holy Bull, Domestic Product won the Grade III Tampa Bay Derby on March 9. Fierceness followed his Holy Bull defeat by crushing his foes in the Grade I Florida Derby on March 30, which he won by a record 13 1/2 lengths.
Hades had been my top pick in my Florida Derby selections for Xpressbet.com, but he got thrashed. He finished fifth, 19 3/4 lengths behind Fierceness.
Considering I was willing to make Hades my top choice in the Florida Derby, I really don’t feel it’s a good idea to get off him this Saturday after just one poor showing to date. Thus, he is my pick to win the Lexington.
Joe Orseno trains Hades. The Florida-bred Awesome Slew gelding will be racing with blinkers for the first time in the Lexington.
Below are my Lexington Stakes selections:
1. Hades
2. Liberal Arts
3. The Wine Steward
4. Encino
I’m drawing a line through Hades’ Florida Derby. I am also drawing a line through Liberal Arts’ Arkansas Derby.
In the Grade I Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park on March 30, Liberal Arts got very rank early. He finished sixth, then was disqualified and placed eighth for causing interference.
Prior to the Arkansas Derby, Liberal Arts had not finished worse than third in six starts for trainer Robert Medina.
Liberal Arts is by Eclipse Award winner Arrogate. Five-time Eclipse Award-winning jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. will be riding Liberal Arts for the first time in the Lexington.
The Wine Steward, who has been installed as the Lexington favorite on the morning line, hasn’t raced since finishing second in the Grade I Breeders’ Futurity last Oct. 7. His 92 Beyer in that Keeneland race is the top figure in the Lexington field.
Is The Wine Steward is good enough to win the Lexington? Yes, absolutely. I’m just inclined to go against him at a short price following a layoff.
Michael Maker trains The Wine Steward, a colt by 2019 Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Vino Rosso.
Brad Cox conditions Encino, who was withdrawn from last Saturday’s Blue Grass Stakes. The Kentucky-bred Nyquist colt is coming off a one-length victory in Turfway Park’s John Battaglia Stakes on March 2.
The Lexington will be Encino’s first start on dirt. All three of his previous races have been on Turfway’s synthetic surface.
Encino had a sharp four-furlong workout in :48.20 on dirt April 6 at Keeneland. It was the fourth-best of 131 works at the distance that morning. His sire won such major races on dirt as the 2015 BC Juvenile and 2016 Kentucky Derby.
DERBY STRIKES SYSTEM UPDATE
I developed my Derby Strikes System in 1999 to try and identify those horses having the best chance to win the Kentucky Derby from BOTH tactical and historical perspectives.
My Derby Strikes System consists of eight categories. When a horse does not qualify in one of the eight categories, the horse receives a strike.
The eight categories are listed further below in this blog.
Because stakes races in this country were not graded until 1973, I can’t go further back than that year when calculating the number of strikes for past Kentucky Derby winners. Two of my eight categories deal with graded stakes races.
A number of the categories in my Derby Strikes System are tied to a Kentucky Derby being run on the first Saturday in May. Consequently, when the 2020 running was switched from May 2 to Sept. 5 due to the pandemic, it rendered the Derby Strikes System unworkable that year. But when the Kentucky Derby again was run on its traditional date of the first Saturday in May in 2021, the Derby Strikes System again was viable.
Mage last year joined Mine That Bird as the only two Kentucky Derby winners to have more than two strikes.
Mine That Bird had four strikes. Mage had three.
Despite there being a three-strike winner last year, history tells us that a horse with zero strikes or only one strike has a much better chance to win the Kentucky Derby than a horse with two strikes or more.
According to the Derby Strikes System, excluding the Kentucky Derby of 2020 when the race was run in September, 80% of the Kentucky Derby winners (40 out of 50) have had zero strikes or one strike from 1973 through 2023.
There have been eight Kentucky Derby winners with two strikes. Cannonade (1974), Ferdinand (1986), Sea Hero (1993), Funny Cide (2003), Giacomo (2005), Justify (2018), Country House (2019) and Rich Strike (2022).
The strikes for a number of Kentucky Derby candidates are listed below:
ZERO STRIKES
Dornoch
Endlessly
Forever Young
Mystik Dan
Stronghold
ONE STRIKE
Catalytic (Category 2)
Catching Freedom (Category 3)
Domestic Product (Category 3)
Fierceness (Category 4)
Honor Marie (Category 3)
Sierra Leone (Category 3)
Track Phantom (Category 4)*
West Saratoga (Category 4)
TWO STRIKES
Deterministic (Categories 3 and 5)
Grand Mo the First (Categories 2 and 3)
No More Time (Categories 4 and 5)
Just Steel (Categories 2 and 3)
Resilience (Categories 4 and 6)
Society Man (Categories 2 and 8)
THREE STRIKES
Common Defense (Categories 2, 4 and 5)
Epic Ride (Categories 1, 2 and 4)
Just a Touch (Categories 2, 4 and 7)
T O Password (Categories 1, 2 and 7)
*Track Phantom’s only official strike is in Category 4 for not being able to improve or hold his position during the final furlong of the Louisiana Derby. Meanwhile, a horse gets a strike in Category 6 if blinkers are added or removed in a horse’s final start before the Kentucky Derby. The thinking behind this category is if a horse is good enough to win the Kentucky Derby, the trainer is not making an equipment change so late in the game. Indications are that Track Phantom is going to have blinkers added for the Kentucky Derby. If that does happen, while Track Phantom officially is a one-strike horse, I personally will be considering him a two-strike horse because of blinkers being added to his equipment on May 4.
WINNER’S STRIKES GOING BACK TO 1973
As mentioned earlier, because stakes races in this country were not graded until 1973, I can’t go back further than that year when determining the number of strikes for Kentucky Derby winners. Again, this is because two of my eight categories deal with graded stakes races.
The strikes for each official Kentucky Derby winner going back to 1973 are listed below:
2023 Mage (3 strikes) Categories 2, 4 and 7)
2022 Rich Strike (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 3)
2021 Mandaloun (1 strike) Category 4*
2020 race run in September
2019 Country House (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 3**
2018 Justify (2 strikes) Categories 1 and 7
2017 Always Dreaming (1 strike) Category 1
2016 Nyquist (0 strikes)
2015 American Pharoah (0 strikes)
2014 California Chrome (0 strikes)
2013 Orb (0 strikes)
2012 I’ll Have Another (0 strikes)
2011 Animal Kingdom (0 strikes)
2010 Super Saver (1 strike) Category 4
2009 Mine That Bird (4 strikes) Categories 1, 4, 5 and 9
2008 Big Brown (0 strikes)
2007 Street Sense (0 strikes)
2006 Barbaro (0 strikes)
2005 Giacomo (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 5
2004 Smarty Jones (0 strikes)
2003 Funny Cide (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 8
2002 War Emblem (0 strikes)
2001 Monarchos (0 strikes)
2000 Fusaichi Pegasus (1 strike) Category 6
1999 Charismatic (1 strike) Category 5
1998 Real Quiet (0 strikes)
1997 Silver Charm (1 strike) Category 4
1996 Grindstone (0 strikes)
1995 Thunder Gulch (0 strikes)
1994 Go for Gin (0 strikes)
1993 Sea Hero (2 strikes) Categories 3 and 5
1992 Lil E. Tee (0 strikes)
1991 Strike the Gold (0 strikes)
1990 Unbridled (1 strike) Category 3
1989 Sunday Silence (0 strikes)
1988 Winning Colors (0 strikes)
1987 Alysheba (1 strike) Category 2
1986 Ferdinand (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 4
1985 Spend a Buck (0 strikes)
1984 Swale (0 strikes)
1983 Sunny’s Halo (1 strike) Category 1
1982 Gato Del Sol (1 strike) Category 3
1981 Genuine Risk (1 strike) Category 1
1980 Pleasant Colony (0 strikes)
1979 Spectacular Bid (0 strikes)
1978 Affirmed (0 strikes)
1977 Seattle Slew (0 strikes)
1976 Bold Forbes (0 strikes)
1975 Foolish Pleasure (0 strikes)
1974 Cannonade (2 strikes) Categories 3 and 4
1973 Secretariat (0 strikes)
*Medina Spirit (0 strikes) finished first but was disqualified from purse money
**Maximum Security (0 strikes) finished first but was disqualified and placed 17th
MY DERBY STRIKES SYSTEM’S CATEGORIES
What are the eight categories in my Derby Strikes System? They are listed below:
1. THE GRADED STAKES CATEGORY. (The horse ran in a graded stakes race before March 31.) This points out horses who have competed against tough competition prior to March 31 rather than at the last minute in April, enabling the horse to be properly battle-tested. (Exceptions: Going back to the introduction of graded stakes races in the U.S. in 1973, only Genuine Risk in 1980, Sunny’s Halo in 1983, Mine That Bird in 2009 and Always Dreaming in 2017 have won the Kentucky Derby without running in a graded stakes race at 2 or early at 3 before March 31.)
2. THE WIN IN A GRADED STAKES CATEGORY. (The horse has won a graded stakes race.) This points out horses who have shown they have the class to win a graded stakes race. (Exceptions: Ferdinand in 1986, Alysheba in 1987, Funny Cide in 2003, Giacomo in 2005, Rich Strike in 2022 and Mage in 2023 are the only exceptions going back to the introduction of U.S. graded stakes races in 1973; Alysheba in 1987 did finish first in the Blue Grass, only to be disqualified and placed third.)
3. THE EIGHTH POLE CATEGORY. (In either of his or her last two starts before the Kentucky Derby, the horse was first or second with a furlong to go.) This points out horses who were running strongly at the eighth pole, usually in races at 1 1/16 or 1 1/8 miles. By running strongly at the same point in the Kentucky Derby, a horse would be in a prime position to win the roses. Keep in mind that 57 of the last 61 Kentucky Derby winners through 2023 have been first or second with a furlong to run. From 1962 through 2023, the only four Kentucky Derby winners who were not first or second with a furlong to run were Grindstone, fourth with a furlong to run in 1996; Giacomo, sixth with a furlong to go in 2005; Animal Kingdom, third a furlong out in 2011 when only a half-length from being second; and Rich Strike, third with a furlong to go in 2022. (Exceptions: Going back to 1955, the Kentucky Derby winners who weren’t either first or second a furlong from the finish in his or her last two starts have been Tim Tam in 1958, Carry Back in 1961, Cannonade in 1974, Gato Del Sol in 1982, Unbridled in 1990, Sea Hero in 1993 and Rich Strike in 2022, with Canonero II in 1971 unknown.)
4. THE GAMENESS CATEGORY. (The horse’s finish position in both of his or her last two races before the Kentucky Derby was no worse than his or her running position at the eighth pole.) This points out horses who don’t like to get passed in the final furlong. (Exceptions: Going back to 1955, the exceptions have been Venetian Way in 1960, Cannonade in 1974, Foolish Pleasure in 1975, Ferdinand in 1986, Silver Charm in 1997, Mine That Bird in 2009, Super Saver in 2010, Mandaloun in 2021 and Mage in 2023, with Canonero II in 1971 unknown.)
5. THE DISTANCE FOUNDATION CATEGORY. (The horse has finished at least third in a 1 1/8-mile race or longer before the Kentucky Derby.) This points out horses who have the proper foundation and/or stamina for the Kentucky Derby distance. (Exceptions: Going back to 1955, the only exceptions have been Kauai King in 1966, Sea Hero in 1993, Charismatic in 1999, Giacomo in 2005 and Mine That Bird in 2009.)
6. THE NO ADDING OR REMOVING BLINKERS CATEGORY. (The horse has not added blinkers or had blinkers removed in his or her final start at 3 before the Kentucky Derby.) This seems to point out that, if a horse is good enough to win the Kentucky Derby, the trainer is not searching for answers so late in the game. (Going back to 1973, no horse has added blinkers or had blinkers removed in his or her last start at 3 before winning the Kentucky Derby.)
7. THE RACED AS A 2-YEAR-OLD CATEGORY. (The horse made at least one start as a 2-year-old.) (Exceptions: Apollo in 1882, Justify in 2018 and Mage in 2023. Going back to 1937, horses unraced as a 2-year-old now are a combined 3 for 73 in the Kentucky Derby through 2023. During this period, the only horses to finish second or third in the Kentucky Derby without having raced at 2 were Hampden, who finished third in 1946; Coaltown, second in 1948; Agitate, third in 1974; Reinvested, third in 1982; Strodes Creek, second in 1994; Curlin, third in 2007; Bodemeister, second in 2012; and Battle of Midway, third in 2017.)
8. THE NOT A GELDING CATEGORY. (The horse is not a gelding.) (Exceptions: Funny Cide in 2003 and Mine That Bird in 2009 are the only geldings to win the Kentucky Derby since Clyde Van Dusen in 1929.)
MY EARLY KENTUCKY DERBY ODDS
On Monday’s SiriusXM radio program At the Races hosted by Steve Byk, I provided him with my early odds for Kentucky Derby candidates, as shown below:
My Odds -- Horse (David Aragona’s Daily Racing Form odds listed Wednesday)
3-1 Fierceness (3-1)
7-2 Sierra Leone (7-2)
8-1 Forever Young (8-1)
10-1 Catching Freedom (10-1)
12-1 Just a Touch (12-1)
15-1 Dornoch (20-1)
15-1 Resilience (20-1)
20-1 Deterministic (no odds)
20-1 Domestic Product (25-1)
20-1 Endlessly (30-1)
20-1 Honor Marie (20-1)
20-1 Just Steel (20-1)
20-1 Mystik Dan (20-1)
20-1 Stronghold (25-1)
20-1 Track Phantom (20-1)
30-1 No More Time (40-1)
30-1 T O Password (40-1)
30-1 West Saratoga (40-1)
50-1 Catalytic (30-1)
50-1 Society Man (40-1)
FIERCENESS FAVORED IN KENTUCKY DERBY FUTURE WAGER
When Pool 6 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager (KDFW) closed last Saturday (April 6), Fierceness was the 5-2 favorite. Pool 6 betting ended prior to the Wood Memorial, Blue Grass Stakes and Santa Anita Derby.
Pool 6 was the finale in the series of future wagering pools offered by Churchill Downs.
Sierra Leone closed at 7-1 in Pool 6. A short time later, he went out and won the Blue Grass as the 8-5 favorite. Those who bet him at 7-1 in Pool 6 did quite well in that he likely is going be a much shorter price on May 4.
Conversely, those who put money on Deterministic at 12-1 in Pool 6 are not in an enviable position. He then ran eighth as the 4-5 favorite in the Wood. Many now do not expect Deterministic to even run in the Kentucky Derby.
Speaking of the Wood, congratulations are in order if you bet Resilience at 76-1 in Pool 6. That price sure looks great now after he won the Wood at 9-2.
Stronghold closed at 30-1 in Pool 6. Afterward, he won the Santa Anita Derby at 5-2.
As I wrote for Xpressbet.com last week, I did not expect to be betting Forever Young at anywhere near his 10-1 morning line in Pool 6. He closed at 8-1. I am quite happy with my $400 bet on him at 22-1 in Pool 4.
I also wrote for Xpressbet.com last week: “One horse I am looking at possibly making a very small wager on in Pool 6 is Be You.”
In fact, I did make a small bet on Be You in Pool 6 at 52-1. But after Be You then finished eighth in the Blue Grass at 7-1, he will not be running in the Kentucky Derby. Oh well. Adios to that money. That’s why they call it gambling.
Below are the final odds reported by Churchill Downs last Saturday for Pool 6 of the 2024 KDFW:
5-2 Fierceness
7-1 Sierra Leone
8-1 Forever Young
12-1 Catching Freedom
12-1 Deterministic
12-1 Dornoch
22-1 All Other 3-Year-Olds
24-1 Tuscan Sky
26-1 Honor Marie
30-1 Just Steel
30-1 Stronghold
35-1 Mystik Dan
37-1 Endlessly
40-1 Domestic Product
42-1 Seize the Grey
52-1 Be You
53-1 Track Phantom
63-1 Encino
72-1 Uncle Heavy
76-1 Resilience
80-1 Top Conor
92-1 Hades
99-1 Catalytic
117-1 El Grande O
121-1 West Saratoga
135-1 T O Password
147-1 Evening News
156-1 Epic Ride
157-1 Good Money
179-1 Grand Mo the First
194-1 Mc Vay
234-1 Common Defense
277-1 No More Time
294-1 Tapalo
322-1 Lat Long
478-1 Merit
516-1 Tessuto
793-1 Society
SCR Timberlake*
*Wagering suspended on Timberlake after it was announced he would not be entered in the Kentucky Derby
TOP 10 IN THIS WEEK’S NTRA TOP THOROUGHBRED POLL
The Top 10 rankings in the NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll this week are the same as last week.
Below is the Top 10 in this week’s NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll
Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)
1. 3-1 Senor Buscador (21)
2. 253 National Treasure (5)
3. 171 Idiomatic (3)
4. 165 White Abarrio
5. 118 Saudi Crown (1)
6. 101 First Mission
7. 94 Newgate
8. 67 Warm Heart
9. 58 I’m Very Busy
10. 52 Laurel River (2)
Though he did not make the Top 10, The Chosen Vron received one first-place vote.
TOP 10 IN THIS WEEK’S NTRA TOP THREE-YEAR-OLD POLL
Sierra Leone moved into the top spot this week in the wake of his Blue Grass Stakes victory.
Below is the Top 10 in this week’s NTRA Top Three-Year-Old Poll:
Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)
1. 315 Sierra Leone (21)
2. 304 Fierceness (11)
3. 238 Muth (1)
4. 175 Catching Freedom
5. 164 Stronghold
6. 130 Nysos
7. 88 Forever Young
8. 70 Resilience
9. 54 Just a Touch
10. 48 Endlessly
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