Which Fierceness is going to show up? Will it be the Fierceness who has won races by 11 1/4, 6 1/4 and 13 1/2 lengths? Or will it be the Fierceness who has let chalk players down by being defeated at odds of 1-2 and 1-5?
Can Sierra Leone or Catching Freedom avoid a troubled trip and come from far back in a 20-horse field to emerge victorious in this 1 1/4-mile classic?
Will the undefeated Forever Young (pictued above) finally end an abysmal 0-for-19 record in the Kentucky Derby by UAE Derby starters? Will he be able to add America’s Kentucky Derby to Japan’s ever-growing list of important victories on the world stage?
Or is another upset in store this year, a la Mage at 15-1 last year or Rich Strike’s shocker at 80-1 in 2022?
Those are but some of the key questions to be answered when the $5 million Kentucky Derby -- America’s oldest continuously run sporting event -- is held for the 150th time at Churchill Downs this Saturday (May 4).
From the rail out, the 20 entrants are Dornoch (20-1 on the morning line), Sierra Leone (3-1), Mystik Dan (20-1), Catching Freedom (8-1), Catalytic (30-1), Just Steel (20-1), Honor Marie (20-1), Just a Touch (10-1), T O Password (30-1), Forever Young (10-1), Track Phantom (20-1), West Saratoga (50-1), Endlessly (30-1), Domestic Product (30-1), Grand Mo the First (50-1), Fierceness (5-2 favorite), Stronghold (20-1), Resilience (20-1), Society Man (50-1) and Epic Ride (30-1)
The lone horse on the also-eligible list is Mugatu (30-1).
Lexington Stakes winner Encino had been entered in the Kentucky Derby, but it was announced Tuesday (April 30) that he would be scratched. To the credit of Daily Racing Form’s David Grening, he reported the reason for the scratch, a soft tissue strain in the colt’s right front leg.
Trainer Brad Cox told Grening that Encino galloped in the first set of horses Tuesday morning over the Churchill main track.
“Back at the barn the horse showed signs of being off,” Grening wrote. “The horse was vanned to Dr. Larry Bramlage at the Rood and Riddle Hospital in Lexington, Ky., where X-rays taken were negatative but the soft tissue strain was diagnosed.”
Mike Battaglia has installed dazzling Florida Derby winner Fierceness as the 5-2 favorite on the Kentucky Derby morning line. (I congratulate Battaglia for this being his 50th straight year that he has made the morning line for this world-famous event, a remarkable accomplishment.)
Who is going to win this year’s Kentucky Derby? I think it will be either Fierceness or Forever Young. I consider Fierceness to be the most probable winner. But I am making Forever Young my top choice because he is going to be a better price in the betting.
Forever Young is seeking to follow in the footsteps of his paternal grandsire, Sunday Silence, who won the Run for the Roses in 1989.
Below are my selections for the 2024 Kentucky Derby:
1. Forever Young (10-1 morning line)
2. Fierceness (5-2 favorite)
3. Sierra Leone (3-1)
4. Catching Freedom (8-1)
Rounding out my final Kentucky Derby Top 10:
5. Honor Marie (20-1)
6. Mystik Dan (20-1)
7. Domestic Product (30-1)
8. Stronghold (20-1)
9. Endlessly (30-1)
10. Dornoch (20-1)
Below is a horse-by-horse look at my Kentucky Derby Top 10, from #1 down to #10:
Ranked #1 FOREVER YOUNG. Post Position 11. Morning line 10-1. Jockey Ryusai Sakai. Trainer Yoshito Yahagi.
Some may ask, “Jon, how in the heck can you not make Fierceness your top pick? He’s the fastest horse in the race. He just ran a 110 Beyer Speed Figure when he won the Florida Derby by a record 13 1/2 lengths.”
Well, if I once was bold enough to not make Bellamy Road my top pick in the 2005 Kentucky Derby despite the fact that he was coming off a 120 Beyer Speed Figure, then why not go with someone other Fierceness as my top pick this year?
In 2005, I opted for Closing Argument, who was coming off only an 88 Beyer when he ran third in the Blue Grass Stakes, a race he lost by nine lengths.
Not surprisingly, in light of Bellamy Road’s gigantic 120 Beyer, he was sent away as the 5-2 Kentucky Derby favorite. Closing Argument? He was virtually ignored by the bettors, going off at 71-1.
The primary reason Closing Argument was my choice to win that Kentucky Derby was I thought he had a pretty good chance to be first or second with a furlong to go. History shows that the vast majority of Kentucky Derby winners were in that prime position a furlong from home.
It turned out that Closing Argument was in front by a half-length a furlong from this finish. He continued to have the lead until getting overtaken in the shadow of the wire by 50-1 longshot Giacomo. Closing Argument finished second, just a half-length behind Giacomo.
Though Closing Argument did not win, I still consider it to be one of my best Kentucky Derby picks. He paid $70 for each $2 place ticket.
Bellamy Road ended up seventh. He often is cited as an example of a disappointing Kentucky Derby finish by a horse coming off a huge performance. However, Bellamy Road probably had an excuse for his defeat. Three days after the Kentucky Derby, Bellamy Road was found to have popped a splint in his left front leg, the Daily Racing Form’s Jay Privman reported. It was a plausible explanation as to why Bellamy Road did not run better in the Kentucky Derby.
Finishing third as the 9-2 second favorite in the 2005 Kentucky Derby was Afleet Alex, who would go on to capture the Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes. He would be voted the 2005 Eclipse Award as champion 3-year-old male.
Bellamy Road and Afleet Alex were widely regarded as the two best 3-year-olds going into the 2005 Kentucky Derby. Did either of them win? No.
Fierceness and Sierra Leone are widely regarded as the best two 3-year-olds going into the 2024 Kentucky Derby. Will either of them win? Maybe. Maybe not.
While most people see Fierceness and Sierra Leone as the two best, who’s to say that it isn’t Forever Young? All Forever Young has done is win all five of his races on five different tracks in three different countries.
Back in the 1980s and 1990s, Japanese horses were overmatched against American or European horses. But that’s been far from the case in recent years. The turning point for me was when I watched Japan’s Cesario crush a strong field of 3-year-old fillies from all over the world in the American Oaks at Hollywood Park in 2005. Cesario ran off before the race, won by four lengths and recorded a 106 Beyer Speed Figure. I knew right then and there that, going forward, one had better take Japanese horses very seriously.
I wrote this for Xpressbet.com prior to this year’s Saudi Cup: “How much of a force have the Japanese become in Thoroughbred racing? One need not look past the exploits of Japan’s Equinox, a fantastic equine athlete widely regarded as the best racehorse on the planet last year.”
By the way, in terms of Forever Young and Sierra Leone, I was stunned earlier this year when my friend and enthusiastic racing fan Ryan Stillman pointed out to me that the two colts have the same second dam, Darling My Darling.
“How could this be?” I thought. After all, Forever Young is a Japanese-bred colt, while Sierra Leone is a Kentucky-bred colt. But it’s true. They have the same maternal granddam.
Forever Young’s dam, Forever Darling, won the Grade II Santa Ynez Stakes in 2015.
Sierra Leone’s dam, Heavenly Love, won the Grade I Alcibiades in 2017.
Darling My Darling, a daughter of Deputy Minister and the Mining mare Roamin Rachel, won two ungraded stakes races during her 13-race career. Deputy Minister was the Eclipse Award-winning 2-year-old male of 1981. I won a sizable wager on Mining at Belmont Park in the fall of 1988, then he finished 10th in his next start as the 8-5 favorite in the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Sprint at Churchill Downs.
Forever Young was three for three last year in Japan. He has the distinction of being Japan’s highest-rated dirt 2-year-old in that country’s history.
In the Saudi Derby on Feb. 24, Forever Young lacked early speed, ran hard all the way down the lane and just got up to win by a head at 1,600 meters (about one mile). Many knocked him for not winning by a larger margin. Many knocked him for running on his left lead all the way down the stretch. But I thought it actually was an admirable performance.
“It is true that Forever Young won the Saudi Derby by only a small margin,” I wrote for Xpressbet.com. “But I believe he deserved kudos for coming away with a victory despite racing in a country other than Japan for the first time, despite competing in a race around one turn for the first time, despite a tardy beginning and despite a wide journey.”
Additionally, Forever Young’s final time of 1:36.17 obliterated the track record. The old mark had been 1:37.91 set by Full Flat in the inaugural Saudi Derby in 2020. Forever Young’s 1:36 flat clocking in fifths was about nine lengths faster than Full Flat’s 1:37 4/5.”
I think it’s noteworthy that, according to Secretariat.com’s Steve Haskin, when Forever Young won the Saudi Derby, he ran “basically as fast” as older stars Senor Buscador and Ushba Tesora when they finished one-two on that same card in the $20 million Saudi Cup, the world’s richest horse race.
Would Senor Buscador and Ushba Tesora be awfully tough if they competed in the Kentucky Derby as older horses? I sure think so. And so, considering Forever Young ran “basically as fast” as those two elite equine athletes on Feb. 24, I believe it certainly gives Forever Young a license to win this Saturday.
A friend of mine emailed me in early March to pass along his thoughts of Forever Young after seeing that I had the Saudi Derby winner at the top of my Kentucky Derby rankings. I will call my friend Mr. X.
Mr. X’s opinion deserves a lot of respect. He really knows his stuff. His email to me did not pull any punches.
“Forever Young? Are you drinking?” Mr. X wrote. “You won’t find him with a search warrant in the Kentucky Derby. He has no chance. Saudi Derby knocked him out.”
After that email, I became concerned that perhaps Forever Young’s Saudi Derby effort had taken too much of a toll on him and that he might not win the UAE Derby at 1,000 meters (about 1 3/16 miles) on March 30. But Forever Young did win the UAE Derby by two lengths. The runner-up was a 4-year-old from Argentina, Auto Bahn. This time Forever Young switched to his right lead with about 400 meters to go and stayed on that lead to the finish.
I thought Forever Young won the UAE Derby rather comfortably, with his ears going back and forth. It should be pointed out that in fairness to Auto Bahn, he packed 131 pounds, 10 more than Forever Young.
In the UAE Derby, Forever Young came from off the pace and raced wide on a track that might have been favoring early speed and an inside trip.
T.D. Thornton of the Thoroughbred Daily News observed that while the four dirt races on the Dubai World Cup card at Meydan provided “only a limited sample, two of them were blowout wins by speed horses who rode the rail, suggesting that the ground-conceding run by Forever Young could have been against the grain of an inside-favoring track.”
For many horseplayers, Forever Young automatically took himself out of Kentucky Derby consideration simply by running in the UAE Derby. That’s because no UAE starter has ever finished better than fifth in the Kentucky Derby. Master of Hounds ran fifth in the Kentucky Derby after finishing second in the 2011 UAE Derby.
I’ve heard it said time and time again that going from Japan to Saudi Arabia, then on to Dubai, then on to Kentucky is just too much traveling.
Look, I get it. That much traveling is far from ideal. But the way people talk, you would think Forever Young had to swim all the way across the Atlantic, land on the East Coast, then pull a covered wagon all the way to Kentucky.
After the UAE Derby, I received another email from Mr. X, who most definitely is a member of the anti-Forever Young club.
“Forever Young can’t win the Kentucky Derby,” my friend wrote this time. “No chance to hit the board. Way too much traveling and it shows in latest videos. Not a super horse. If he wins then he is a freak.”
Do I think Forever Young is a super horse? No. Do I think he is a freak? No. Do I think he is as good as such Kentucky Derby winners in the last 20 years as Smarty Jones, Barbaro, Street Sense, Big Brown, I’ll Have Another, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Nyquist or Justify? I’d say probably not, though I also wouldn’t completely rule it out at this point since Forever Young has won all of his races to date.
However, I do think Forever Young might be as good as such Kentucky Derby winners as Animal Kingdom and Authentic. That could be good enough for Forever Young to win the roses this year.
And I think Forever Young might well be better than such Kentucky Derby winners as Giacomo, Mine That Bird, Super Saver, Orb, Always Dreaming, Country House, Mandaloun, Rich Strike and Mage.
Television broadcaster Randy Moss, a member of the team that makes Beyer Speed Figures, does not agree with those who say Forever Young can’t win the Kentucky Derby because he ran in the UAE Derby.
“You’re going to hear a lot about the record of UAE Derby horses in the Kentucky Derby, which is 0 for 19,” Moss said on a podcast hosted by Peter Fornatale. “And I think you should take that with a colossal grain of salt, for a couple of reasons.
“Number one, the average price of those horses has been 23 1/2-1. If you think back on it, in all the time that Sheikh Mohammed and others have been bringing horses from Dubai to the Kentucky Derby, really only four of them came into Louisville with any credentials and any kind of shot of all, in hindsight, to handle the mile and a quarter. A lot of them were miler, sprinter-miler types. Maybe the best they brought over was a horse named Street Cry (future sire of America’s great Zenyatta and Australia’s great Winx). Street Cry didn’t make the race because he suffered an ankle injury a week out.
“Another was Mendelssohn, who had never experienced kickback. He was bumped at the start of the Kentucky Derby on a very sloppy track. He not only got kickback, he got mud balls in his face, and didn’t like it all. He ran last.
“Then there was Thunder Snow, who turned into a bucking bronco on a sloppy track as soon as the gates opened. I’ve seen a hundred-thousand races in my life. I’ve never seen that before or since. So throw him out. And he wound up winning back-to-back runnings of the Dubai World Cup and $16 million on the track. So Thunder Snow clearly was a very good horse.
“And then the other one was Derma Sotogake. He didn’t really get off to a great start last year, but it was a race that favored horses that came from well back, witness Mage because of the fast pace. I really don’t give Derma Sotogake that much of an excuse.
“So really, out of that 0 for 19, I consider it to be 0 for 1. Only one horse had a legitimate chance to win and didn’t win the way the race was run. And it’s not like Derma Sotogake ran poorly. I mean, he finished sixth in there, made a little run around the [far] turn. So I don’t pay much attention to the 0 for 19 in the UAE Derby.”
Though Derma Sotogake could finish no better than sixth in the Kentucky Derby, he did go on to finish second to White Abarrio in the BC Classic at Santa Anita while outrunning the likes of Proxy, Arabian Knight, Ushba Tesoro, Bright Future, Senor Buscador and Saudi Crown.
Many have expressed a concern that Forever Young is likely to have to deal with dirt kickback in a 20-horse Kentucky Derby. That’s something he pretty much did not encounter in either the Saudi Derby or UAE Derby due to being kept wide in those two races.
“For the most part, those ground-conceding tactics [in the Saudi Derby and UAE Derby] have been by design to keep Forever Young from being pelted by kickback from horses in front of him,” the TDN’s Thornton wrote. “His connections are on record as saying that the colt dislikes the dirt spray, and he was equipped with a sort of facemask (like blinkers without the cups) in his last race at Meydan.
“Is Forever Young’s aversion to kickback a reason to discount his chances in the Kentucky Derby? Probably not if you otherwise like his chances…He won three times in Japan at age 2 despite being in spots where he was forced to take at least some kickback.”
Meanwhile, I love Forever Young’s Thoro-Graph pattern going into the Kentucky Derby.
As I have written many times, while I regard Beyer Speed Figures to be a useful tool for horseplayers, I do believe that Thoro-Graph numbers are superior. That’s because Thoro-Graph takes more factors into account than the Beyers. According to Thoro-Graph, “each number on a sheet represents a performance rating arrived at by using time of the race, beaten lengths, ground lost or saved on the turns, weight carried, and any effects wind conditions had on the time of the race.”
In the case of Thoro-Graph numbers, a horse who finished second, or even lower, can get a better number than the winner. This is one of the reasons I believe that Thoro-Graph is better than the Beyers. I consider a Thoro-Graph number to be a much truer reflection of a horse’s performance than a Beyer. Thoro-Graph’s approach reflects the reality that the winner is not necessarily the horse who ran the best race.
The winner of a race never gets a lower Beyer Speed Figure than the horse who finished second, the horse who finished second never gets a lower Beyer than the horse who finished third, and so on down through the order of finish.
Secretariat.com’s Steve Haskin wrote last week: “What can you say about a horse who wins in Japan getting a 5 3/4 Thoro-Graph number, however that is computed, then travels to Saudi Arabia for the [about] one-mile Saudi Derby and runs a 1 Thoro-Graph number, winning despite a wide trip, not changing leads down that long stretch, and still closing relentlessly to nail a pretty fast American runner [Book’em Danno]. With such a hard race under him he then travels to Dubai for the UAE Derby, stretching out to [about] 1 3/16 miles against a much stronger field, is forced to go wide again, and runs down a 4-year-old Argentine-bred colt who was opening up a five-length lead on the rest of the field. Not only did Forever Young win by two lengths and not bounce off the Saudi Derby, he ran another 1 Thoro-Graph number, giving him the fastest back-to-back numbers of any 3-year-old. That was backed up by his Ragozin pairing of 6 and 6, also the fastest back-back-to-back numbers of any 3-year-old. So now the question is, what should we expect in the Kentucky Derby, with him having to travel again? He did arrive safely, so the first step is out of the way. This colt seems to have a very high ceiling and he is undefeated in three countries. Let’s say the Japanese are due after several failed attempts by horses far slower than Forever Young. So if not now, when?”
Haskin also has noted that with Forever Young having posted Thoro-Graph numbers of 1 in Saudi Arabia and 1 in Dubai, “no 3-year-old has even come close to running back-to-back numbers that fast, and the fact that he was able to pair up that number strongly suggests he can now move forward off it.”
If Forever Young does indeed move forward off his back-to-back Thoro-Graph numbers of 1 in the Saudi Derby and 1 in the UAE Derby, it says to me that the Real Steel colt will have a good chance to win the Kentucky Derby.
I think another reason that Forevever Young might make a forward move in the Kentucky Derby is his trainer.
As I recently wrote for Xpressbet.com: “I have seen enough of Yahagi’s work to consider him to be an elite horseman. I expect Yahagi to have Forever Young as ready as humanly possible to run a biggie on the first Saturday in May. Yahagi being in Forever Young’s corner is a major reason I think this colt represents Japan’s best chance yet to win the Kentucky Derby.
“I became a believer in Yahagi when he won not one, but two Breeders’ Cup races at Del Mar in 2021. He shocked the racing world by winning the BC Distaff with 49-1 longshot Marche Lorraine. Yahagi also won the BC Filly & Mare Turf with 4-1 Loves Only You.
“In 2022, Yahagi won the $20 million Saudi Cup, the world’s richest horse race, with Panthalassa. As a prime example of Yahagi’s tremendous ability as a trainer, Panthalassa had not raced on dirt prior to the Saudi Cup.”
All in all, I consider this year’s Kentucky Derby to be a golden opportunity to get odds of around 10-1 on a 3-year-old who has so much going for him.
I think Haskin put it quite well when he wrote last week: Forever Young “probably has more individual strengths than any horse in the race. He is undefeated in five starts in three countries. He has proven so far that travel does not affect him even when he has a rough time of it, as he did from Japan to Saudi Arabia. He has won stakes in Saudi Arabia at [about] one mile and [about] 1 3/16 miles. He has overcome bad posts, wide trips and failing to change leads the length of the stretch and still finds a way to win. His victory in the Saudi Derby required tremendous determination after he appeared hopelessly beaten in the stretch. His times have compared favorably with those of the Saudi Cup and Dubai World Cup, and his back to back ‘1’s’ on Thoro-Graph are the fastest successive races of any horse in the race. He has run down a fast American miler [Book’em Danno] at [about] a mile and a 4-year-old Argentine horse at [about] 1 3/16 miles. His winning margins have been two, four and seven lengths and the margins between the second- and third-place finisher have been eight lengths, six lengths and 4 3/4 lengths. So he always decimates the rest of the field. Despite racing in three countries he has won his five races at five different racetracks, both left- and right-handed.”
Ranked #2 FIERCENESS. Post Position 17. Morning line 5-2 favorite. Jockey John Velazquez. Trainer Todd Pletcher.
As I said earlier, I consider Fierceness to be the most probable winner. The reason I’m going with Forever Young as my top pick is he will be a much better price.
Fierceness has looked like a superstar in his 11 1/2-length maiden win, 6 1/4-length Breeders’ Cup Juvenile triumph and 13 1/2-length Florida Derby tour de force.
But Fierceness has looked ordinary in his two losses. The Kentucky-bred City of Light colt lost by 20 1/4 lengths when seventh last year as a 1-2 favorite in the Champagne Stakes, which was contested on a sloppy track. When pounded down to 1-5 favoritism in the Holy Bull Stakes this year, he finished third and lost by 3 1/2 lengths when racing on dry land.
I believe it would not have been good for Fierceness if he had drawn a post toward the inside. But exiting the gate from post 16 (after the news Tuesday that Encino would be scratched) actually is good for him, I think.
This really isn’t complicated. Fierceness sports the two highest Beyer Speed Figures going into the Kentucky Derby, a 105 in the BC Juvenile and 110 in the Florida Derby. He also sports the two best Thoro-Graph numbers. He’s the only horse in this year’s Kentucky Derby with negative numbers. He received a negative 1 1/2 in the BC Juvenile and a negative 3 1/4 in the Florida Derby.
One major concern for Fierceness in the Kentucky Derby is Andy Beyer said this week on Steve Byk’s SiriuxXM radio program At the Races that “my exacta is Fierceness over Just a Touch.”
That is worrisome for Fierceness. Beyer himself readily admits that the record of his top pick in the three Triple Crown races is awful.
In one of the most woeful exhibitions of public handicapping ever seen, Beyer’s top choice in each of the 2015 Triple Crown races was badly outrun.
Before the 2015 Kentucky Derby, I stated in the Louisville Courier-Journal that American Pharoah “reminds me of Seattle Slew” and “just might sweep the Triple Crown.” Did Beyer pick American Pharoah? No, Beyer thought that American Pharoah was “overrated.”
Beyer made it clear on Byk’s program in 2015 that he didn’t think that American Pharoah deserved the hype he was getting prior to the Kentucky Derby. Beyer picked Upstart to win. American Pharoah won by one length. Upstart? He was eased and finished 60 1/2 lengths behind American Pharoah.
Firing Line then was Beyer’s top pick in the Preakness. American Pharoah won by seven lengths. Firing Line? He stumbled at the start, was eased and finished 45 lengths behind American Pharoah.
After what happened in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, you might think Beyer finally had learned his lesson and picked American Pharoah to win the Belmont Stakes, right? Nope. Beyer’s top pick was Materiality. American Pharoah won by 5 1/2 lengths to end a 37-year Triple Crown drought. Materiality? He finished last, 22 1/4 lengths behind American Pharoah.
That means that while American Pharoah was running his way into the history books by sweeping the Triple Crown, Beyer’s top pick lost those three races by a combined 127 3/4 lengths.
Ranked #3 SIERRA LEONE. Post position 2. Morning line 5-2. Jockey Tyler Gaffalione. Trainer Chad Brown.
Can Sierra Leone make his move early enough to be first or second with a furlong to go in the Kentucky Derby? If he is not first or second a furlong from home, I believe the odds are against him winning based on what has occurred in the last 61 years.
Of the last 61 Kentucky Derby winners, 93% were first or second a furlong out.
In the 1 1/8-mile Risen Star on a sloppy track at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots on Feb. 17, Sierra Leone was fourth with a furlong to go before charging home to prevail by a half-length.
In the 1 1/8-mile Blue Grass at Keeneland on April 6, Sierra Leone again was fourth a furlong out before rallying to win going away by 1 1/2 lengths.
At least Sierra Leone did manage to be in front by a head a furlong from home after trailing early in the 1 1/8-mile Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct last Dec. 2. That indicates it’s far from impossible that Sierra Leone will be first or second a furlong out in the Kentucky Derby.
I think Sierra Leone is a very talented colt. As such, I certainly consider him to be a major player in the Kentucky Derby.
Not only has Sierra Leone won both starts this year, he’s been flattered by what two of his Risen Star victims subsequently achieved. Catching Freedom took the Grade II Louisiana Derby on March 23. Resilience won the Grade II Wood Memorial on April 6.
However, based on Sierra Leone’s two performances this year, I just can’t help wondering if he will make his move early enough to be first or second a furlong from the finish on May 4. I think it’s more likely that he will be coming on late to finish second, third or fourth.
Regarding Sierra Leone, I thought the TDN’s Thornton recently made an interesting observation regarding the colt’s Blue Grass victory.
“Despite being visually arresting, the timing of Sierra Leone’s finish was on the tepid side,” Thornton noted. “While the early part of the Blue Grass featured revved-up opening quarter-mile splits of :23.15 and :23.33 [for the first half-mile], Sierra Leone closed ground through a final furlong in :13.43. That’s the slowest last eighth among all the nine points-awarding preps run at 1 1/8 miles in 2023-24.”
I think Sierra Leone’s reluctance to go into the starting gate prior to the Blue Grass also has to be taken into consideration when evaluating his chances to win the Kentucky Derby. It is to Sierra Leone’s credit that he overcame such behavior and still won Blue Grass. But when Sierra Leone finds himself amidst a much larger crowd on hand for the Kentucky Derby, what if he acts like that again?
Granted, Sierra Leone has undergone gate schooling at Churchill Downs since the Blue Grass. But while reports are that the gate schooling sessions have gone well, that did not take place amid a crowd in excess of 150,000, which will be the case for Sierra Leone this Saturday.
Sierra Leone is a Kentucky-bred colt by Gun Runner. Voted Horse of the Year in 2017, Gun Runner will be inducted into the national Hall of Fame this summer.
Ranked #4 CATCHING FREEDOM. Post position 4. Morning Line 8-1. Jockey Flavien Prat. Trainer Brad Cox.
Can Catching Freedom become the first winner of the Louisiana Derby to go on and capture the Kentucky Derby since Grindstone all the way back in 1996?
A Kentucky-bred Constitution colt, Catching Freedom rallied from last in a field of 11 to win the Louisiana Derby by one length.
Like Sierra Leone, Catching Freedom is a come-from-behind type who is rather iffy in my eyes as to whether he will be able to be first or second a furlong from home on May 4. Again, in the last 61 Kentucky Derbies, only four Kentucky Derby winners -- Grindstone in 1996, Giacomo in 2005, Animal Kingdom in 2011 and Rich Strike in 2022 -- were not first or second a furlong out.
Ranked #5 HONOR MARIE. Post position 7. Morning Line 20-1. Jockey Ben Curtis. Trainer Whit Beckman.
I look at Honor Marie as a legit candidate to finish in the superfecta. The Kentucky-bred Honor Code colt, a May 4 foal running in the May 4 Kentucky Derby, recorded a bullet five-furlong workout in :59.20 at Churchill on April 25.
Runner-up in the Louisiana Derby, Honor Marie seemingly has an affinity for the Churchill main track (3 starts, 2 wins, 1 second). He closed strongly from well off the pace to win the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes going away by two lengths last fall.
The Kentucky Jockey Club was inaugurated in 1989. Super Saver won that race in 2008. Even though the Kentucky Jockey Club is run on the same oval as the Kentucky Derby, Super Saver is the only Kentucky Jockey Club winner to subsequently win the Kentucky Derby.
Ranked #6 MYSTIK DAN. Post position 3. Morning line 20-1. Jockey Brian Hernandez. Trainer Kenny McPeek.
Can Mystik Dan win a Grade I race on a fast track? His best performance by far to date came when victorious in the Grade III Southwest Stakes on a muddy track, an effort that produced a 101 Beyer Speed Figure.
In his next start after the Southwest, Mystik Dan lost by 6 1/4 lengths on a fast track when finishing third to Muth and Just Steel in the Grade I Arkansas Derby.
If it turns out that the Kentucky Derby is decided on a wet track, Mystik Dan undoubtedly will become more appealing to bettors.
But keep in mind that Mystic Dan did record a 96 Beyer Speed Figure on a fast track when the Kentucky-bred Goldencents colt won a 5 1/2-furlong maiden sprint by 7 3/4 lengths at Churchill last Nov. 12.
Ranked #7 DOMESTIC PRODUCT. Post position 15. Morning line 30-1. Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. Trainer Chad Brown.
Right off the bat, there are worse things than putting money on a horse at such long odds on the morning line who has a five-time Eclipse Award-winning jockey and a four-time Eclipse Award winning trainer.
I am looking forward to seeing what Domestic Product can do if the Kentucky-bred Practical Joke colt gets a faster pace than when he won the Grade III Tampa Bay Derby. He prevailed by just a neck and recorded only an 82 Beyer. But I think it takes a pretty darn good colt to come from behind and win despite such a snail-like early tempo of :25.25 for the first quarter-mile, :51.14 for the half, then 1:16.21 for three-quarters.
It is a cinch that Domestic Product is going to get a considerably faster pace to close into in the Kentucky Derby. For instance, last year’s early fractions in the Derby were :22.35, :45.74 and 1:10.11.
I, for one, will not be surprised if Domestic Product makes his presence felt in the final furlong this Saturday.
Ranked #8 STRONGHOLD. Post position 18. Morning Line 20-1. Jockey Antonio Fresu. Trainer Phil D’Amato.
Stronghold is coming off a hard-fought win in the Santa Anita Derby. It’s not often that a horseplayer can get odds of around 20-1 on a Grade I winner who has never finished worse than second. In six career starts, the Kentucky-bred colt by 2004 Horse of the Year Ghostzapper has three wins and three seconds.
The biggest issue I have for Stronghold is his Beyer Speed Figures aren’t higher than 89 for his victories in the Sunland Derby and Santa Anita Derby. It’s probably going to take a Beyer of 100 or higher to win the Kentucky Derby.
A plus for Stronghold is he already has won on Churchill’s main track. He earned his maiden diploma in a one-mile contest at Churchill Downs last Oct. 1. Among the vanquished in that maiden race were fellow Kentucky Derby entrants Resilience and Track Phantom. Resilience would go on to win the Grade II Wood Memorial. Track Phantom won this year’s Grade III Lecomte.
Ranked #9 ENDLESSLY. Post position 14. Morning line 30-1. Jockey Umberto Rispoli. Trainer Michael McCarthy.
This will be Endlessly’s first start on dirt. He’s three for four on turf and two for two on synthetic.
After Endlessly won Turfway Park’s Jeff Ruby by a widening four lengths on synthetic March 23 for Amerman Racing Stables, McCarthy said the Kentucky-bred Oscar Performance colt would be making his next start in the Grade II American Turf on the Kentucky Derby undercard.
Is Endlessly probably better on turf and synthetic than dirt? I’d say that he probably is, especially since his workouts on the dirt don’t exactly get the pulse racing.
But I can understand that it’s the preference of owners John and Jerry Amerman for Endlessly to run in the Kentucky Derby. Look, you only get one shot to win this coveted race. So why not take it? If it doesn’t work out, Endlessly always can go back to racing on turf.
With just one loss on Endlessly’s resume, I honestly don’t think it’s impossible for him to give a good account of himself on dirt this Saturday.
Ranked #10 DORNOCH. Post position 1. Morning line 20-1. Jockey Luis Saez. Trainer Danny Gargan.
When Dornoch was last seen under silks in the Blue Grass, Gargan wanted to see what would happen if the colt was rated early. It resulted in a fourth-place finish and a 6 1/2-length defeat. Because it was an experiment that backfired, I think a line can be drawn through Dornoch’s Blue Grass.
I don’t think there is any doubt that the game plan this Saturday will be for Saez to gun early, particularly after Dornoch drew the rail.
Prior to the Blue Grass, Dornach won the Grade II Fountain of Youth Stakes by 1 3/4 lengths in front-running fashion, though he was helped by the race being weakened significantly by the scratches of Merit, Victory Avenue, Locked and Speak Easy.
Don’t forget that Dornoch is the only horse to have defeated Sierra Leone. Not only that, when Dornoch nosed out Sierra Leone in the Remsen, Dornoch won despite bouncing off the inside rail during the stretch run.
Dornoch “has dealt with a foot issue known as a quarter crack through most of his career,” the DRF’s Grening reported Wednesday (May 1).
“Noted farrier Ian McKinlay has examined Dornoch before each of his last three races -- starting with the Grade II Remsen last December, which he won-- and has done whatever work necessary to have the foot in racing condition,” Grening wrote. “On Wednesday, McKinlay was at Churchill Downs where he laced, with wires, the top part of the crack, which is on the right front foot.”
According to Grening, Dornoch’s trainer said the colt trained in a three-quarter shoe both Tuesday and Wednesday and will likely wear one on Tuesday as well. Dornoch will wear a full shoe in the Kentucky Derby.
Dornach, a Kentucky-bred son of Good Magic and Puca, is a full brother to 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage.
No dam has produced two Kentucky Derby winners.
Good Magic would have won a Kentucky Derby if not for having to settle for second behind Justify, who went on to become the sport’s 13th Triple Crown winner and a member of this nation’s 2024 Hall of Fame class that will be inducted this summer.
Dornach’s dam is by Big Brown, who won the 2008 Kentucky Derby.
MY DERBY STRIKES SYSTEM
One of the reasons Forever Young is my pick to win the Kentucky Derby is he has zero strikes in my Derby Strikes System.
I developed my Derby Strikes System in 1999 to try and identify those horses having the best chance to win the Kentucky Derby from BOTH tactical and historical perspectives.
My Derby Strikes System consists of eight categories. When a horse does not qualify in one of the eight categories, the horse receives a strike.
The eight categories are listed further below in this blog.
A number of the categories in my Derby Strikes System are tied to a Kentucky Derby being run on the first Saturday in May. Consequently, when the 2020 running was switched from May 2 to Sept. 5 due to the pandemic, it rendered the Derby Strikes System unworkable that year. But when the Kentucky Derby again was run on its traditional date of the first Saturday in May in 2021, the Derby Strikes System again was viable.
Mage last year joined Mine That Bird as the only two Kentucky Derby winners to have more than two strikes.
Mine That Bird had four strikes. Mage had three.
Despite there being a three-strike winner last year, history tells us that a horse with zero strikes or only one strike has a much better chance to win the Kentucky Derby than a horse with two strikes or more.
According to the Derby Strikes System, excluding the Kentucky Derby of 2020 when the race was run in September, 80% of the Kentucky Derby winners (40 out of 50) have had zero strikes or one strike from 1973 through 2023.
There have been eight Kentucky Derby winners with two strikes: Cannonade (1974), Ferdinand (1986), Sea Hero (1993), Funny Cide (2003), Giacomo (2005), Justify (2018), Country House (2019) and Rich Strike (2022).
The strikes for this year’s Kentucky Derby entrants are listed below:
ZERO STRIKES
Dornoch
Endlessly
Forever Young
Mystik Dan
Stronghold
ONE STRIKE
Catalytic (Category 2)
Catching Freedom (Category 3)
Domestic Product (Category 3)
Fierceness (Category 4)
Honor Marie (Category 3)
Sierra Leone (Category 3)
Track Phantom (Category 4)
West Saratoga (Category 4)
TWO STRIKES
Grand Mo the First (Categories 2 and 3)
Just Steel (Categories 2 and 3)
Resilience (Categories 4 and 6)
Society Man (Categories 2 and 8)
THREE STRIKES
Epic Ride (Categories 1, 2 and 4)
Just a Touch (Categories 2, 4 and 7)
T O Password (Categories 1, 2 and 7)
FOUR STRIKES
Mugatu (Categories 2, 3, 4 and 5)
TRACK PHANTOM TO HAVE BLINKERS ADDED
Track Phantom is listed to have blinkers added to his equipment for this year’s Kentucky Derby. He has not raced with blinkers previously.
Category 6 in my Derby Strikes System has to do with blinkers. A horse gets a strike if blinkers are added or removed in his or her final start at 3 before the Kentucky Derby. The reason for this strike is if a horse is good enough to win the Kentucky Derby, the trainer generally would not be tinkering with equipment so late in the game. Going all the way back to 1973, no horse has added blinkers or had blinkers removed in his or her last start at 3 before winning the Kentucky Derby.
Track Phantom does not get a strike for adding blinkers in the Kentucky Derby. Why? Because the Derby Strikes System is designed to determine a horse’s chances of winning the Kentucky Derby based on his or her races BEFORE the Kentucky Derby.
While Track Phantom is listed to have blinkers added for the Kentucky Derby and it’s probably going to happen, that’s not set in stone. There are countless examples of a horse having an equipment change of blinkers on or off listed in the past performances, yet it doesn’t happen.
Even though Track Phantom doesn’t get a strike for adding blinkers Saturday, the principle is the same in that if a horse is good enough to win the Kentucky Derby, a trainer typically would not be tinkering with the horse’s equipment so late in the game.
Track Phantom officially has one strike. But if he does in fact add blinkers in the Kentucky Derby, I will consider it to be an unofficial strike for him.
WINNER’S STRIKES GOING BACK TO 1973
Because stakes races in this country were not graded until 1973, I can’t go back further than that year when determining the number of strikes for Kentucky Derby winners. This is because two of my eight categories deal with graded stakes races.
The strikes for each official Kentucky Derby winner going back to 1973 are listed below:
2023 Mage (3 strikes) Categories 2, 4 and 7)
2022 Rich Strike (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 3)
2021 Mandaloun (1 strike) Category 4*
2020 race run in September
2019 Country House (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 3**
2018 Justify (2 strikes) Categories 1 and 7
2017 Always Dreaming (1 strike) Category 1
2016 Nyquist (0 strikes)
2015 American Pharoah (0 strikes)
2014 California Chrome (0 strikes)
2013 Orb (0 strikes)
2012 I’ll Have Another (0 strikes)
2011 Animal Kingdom (0 strikes)
2010 Super Saver (1 strike) Category 4
2009 Mine That Bird (4 strikes) Categories 1, 4, 5 and 9
2008 Big Brown (0 strikes)
2007 Street Sense (0 strikes)
2006 Barbaro (0 strikes)
2005 Giacomo (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 5
2004 Smarty Jones (0 strikes)
2003 Funny Cide (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 8
2002 War Emblem (0 strikes)
2001 Monarchos (0 strikes)
2000 Fusaichi Pegasus (1 strike) Category 6
1999 Charismatic (1 strike) Category 5
1998 Real Quiet (0 strikes)
1997 Silver Charm (1 strike) Category 4
1996 Grindstone (0 strikes)
1995 Thunder Gulch (0 strikes)
1994 Go for Gin (0 strikes)
1993 Sea Hero (2 strikes) Categories 3 and 5
1992 Lil E. Tee (0 strikes)
1991 Strike the Gold (0 strikes)
1990 Unbridled (1 strike) Category 3
1989 Sunday Silence (0 strikes)
1988 Winning Colors (0 strikes)
1987 Alysheba (1 strike) Category 2
1986 Ferdinand (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 4
1985 Spend a Buck (0 strikes)
1984 Swale (0 strikes)
1983 Sunny’s Halo (1 strike) Category 1
1982 Gato Del Sol (1 strike) Category 3
1981 Genuine Risk (1 strike) Category 1
1980 Pleasant Colony (0 strikes)
1979 Spectacular Bid (0 strikes)
1978 Affirmed (0 strikes)
1977 Seattle Slew (0 strikes)
1976 Bold Forbes (0 strikes)
1975 Foolish Pleasure (0 strikes)
1974 Cannonade (2 strikes) Categories 3 and 4
1973 Secretariat (0 strikes)
*Medina Spirit (0 strikes) finished first but was disqualified from purse money
**Maximum Security (0 strikes) finished first but was disqualified and placed 17th
MY DERBY STRIKES SYSTEM’S CATEGORIES
What are the eight categories in my Derby Strikes System? They are listed below:
1. THE GRADED STAKES CATEGORY. (The horse ran in a graded stakes race before March 31.) This points out horses who have competed against tough competition prior to March 31 rather than at the last minute in April, enabling the horse to be properly battle-tested. (Exceptions: Going back to the introduction of graded stakes races in the U.S. in 1973, only Genuine Risk in 1980, Sunny’s Halo in 1983, Mine That Bird in 2009 and Always Dreaming in 2017 have won the Kentucky Derby without running in a graded stakes race at 2 or early at 3 before March 31.)
2. THE WIN IN A GRADED STAKES CATEGORY. (The horse has won a graded stakes race.) This points out horses who have shown they have the class to win a graded stakes race. (Exceptions: Ferdinand in 1986, Alysheba in 1987, Funny Cide in 2003, Giacomo in 2005, Rich Strike in 2022 and Mage in 2023 are the only exceptions going back to the introduction of U.S. graded stakes races in 1973; Alysheba in 1987 did finish first in the Blue Grass, only to be disqualified and placed third.)
3. THE EIGHTH POLE CATEGORY. (In either of his or her last two starts before the Kentucky Derby, the horse was first or second with a furlong to go.) This points out horses who were running strongly at the eighth pole, usually in races at 1 1/16 or 1 1/8 miles. By running strongly at the same point in the Kentucky Derby, a horse would be in a prime position to win the roses. Keep in mind that 57 of the last 61 Kentucky Derby winners through 2023 have been first or second with a furlong to run. From 1962 through 2023, the only four Kentucky Derby winners who were not first or second with a furlong to run were Grindstone, fourth with a furlong to run in 1996; Giacomo, sixth with a furlong to go in 2005; Animal Kingdom, third a furlong out in 2011 when only a half-length from being second; and Rich Strike, third with a furlong to go in 2022. (Exceptions: Going back to 1955, the Kentucky Derby winners who weren’t either first or second a furlong from the finish in his or her last two starts have been Tim Tam in 1958, Carry Back in 1961, Cannonade in 1974, Gato Del Sol in 1982, Unbridled in 1990, Sea Hero in 1993 and Rich Strike in 2022, with Canonero II in 1971 unknown.)
4. THE GAMENESS CATEGORY. (The horse’s finish position in both of his or her last two races before the Kentucky Derby was no worse than his or her running position at the eighth pole.) This points out horses who don’t like to get passed in the final furlong. (Exceptions: Going back to 1955, the exceptions have been Venetian Way in 1960, Cannonade in 1974, Foolish Pleasure in 1975, Ferdinand in 1986, Silver Charm in 1997, Mine That Bird in 2009, Super Saver in 2010, Mandaloun in 2021 and Mage in 2023, with Canonero II in 1971 unknown.)
5. THE DISTANCE FOUNDATION CATEGORY. (The horse has finished at least third in a 1 1/8-mile race or longer before the Kentucky Derby.) This points out horses who have the proper foundation and/or stamina for the Kentucky Derby distance. (Exceptions: Going back to 1955, the only exceptions have been Kauai King in 1966, Sea Hero in 1993, Charismatic in 1999, Giacomo in 2005 and Mine That Bird in 2009.)
6. THE NO ADDING OR REMOVING BLINKERS CATEGORY. (The horse has not added blinkers or had blinkers removed in his or her final start at 3 before the Kentucky Derby.) This seems to point out that, if a horse is good enough to win the Kentucky Derby, the trainer is not searching for answers so late in the game. (Going back to 1973, no horse has added blinkers or had blinkers removed in his or her last start at 3 before winning the Kentucky Derby.)
7. THE RACED AS A 2-YEAR-OLD CATEGORY. (The horse made at least one start as a 2-year-old.) (Exceptions: Apollo in 1882, Justify in 2018 and Mage in 2023. Going back to 1937, horses unraced as a 2-year-old now are a combined 3 for 73 in the Kentucky Derby through 2023. During this period, the only horses to finish second or third in the Kentucky Derby without having raced at 2 were Hampden, who finished third in 1946; Coaltown, second in 1948; Agitate, third in 1974; Reinvested, third in 1982; Strodes Creek, second in 1994; Curlin, third in 2007; Bodemeister, second in 2012; and Battle of Midway, third in 2017.)
8. THE NOT A GELDING CATEGORY. (The horse is not a gelding.) (Exceptions: Funny Cide in 2003 and Mine That Bird in 2009 are the only geldings to win the Kentucky Derby since Clyde Van Dusen in 1929.)
TOP 10 IN THIS WEEK’S NTRA TOP THOROUGHBRED POLL
Below is the Top 10 in this week’s NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll
Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)
1. 279 Senor Buscador (20)
2. 220 National Treasure (4)
3. 158 Master of the Seas (1)
4. 139 White Abarrio
5. 132 Idiomatic (3)
6. 101 Adare Manor
7. 112 First Mission
8. 74 Skippylongstocking
9. 73 Saudi Crown
10. 56 Newgate
Though they did not make the Top 10, Laurel River and The Chosen Vron each received one first-place vote.
TOP 10 IN THIS WEEK’S NTRA TOP THREE-YEAR-OLD POLL
Below is the Top 10 in this week’s NTRA Top Three-Year-Old Poll:
Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)
1. 285 Sierra Leone (18)
2. 279 Fierceness (11)
3. 204 Muth (1)
4. 173 Catching Freedom
5. 153 Stronghold
6. 98 Nysos
7. 97 Forever Young
8. 69 Just a Touch
9. 67 Resilience
10. 49 Endlessly
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