Forte, runner-up in the Grade I Belmont Stakes on June 10 while making his first start since April 1, heads a field of five entered in Saratoga’s Grade II Jim Dandy Stakes this Saturday (July 29).
Voted a 2022 Eclipse Award as champion 2-year-old male after winning the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, Forte lost only once in five starts at 2. He ran fourth in Saratoga’s Grade III Sanford Stakes.
Forte is making his ninth career start this Saturday. This will be his first race with blinkers. Even though Forte won the Grade I Florida Derby and finished second in the subsequent Belmont in his two most recent starts, Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher is adding blinkers to the colt’s equipment to try and get him to focus better in competition.
“Pletcher believes Forte ‘lost concentration’ on the far turn of the April 1 Florida Derby but proved good enough to overcome it in defeating Mage by one length,” Daily Racing Form’s David Grening wrote this week.
Four weeks later, Mage won the Grade I Kentucky Derby. Forte had been installed as the 5-2 morning-line favorite in the Run for the Roses, but the Violence colt did not start as a result of being a vet scratch the morning of the race.
“After missing the Kentucky Derby due to a bruised [right front] foot, Forte went into the Belmont Stakes off a 10-week layoff and again appeared to lose focus at a crucial stage of the race before re-rallying to get second narrowly over stablemate Tapit Trice,” Grening continued.
In my Belmont Stakes recap for Xpressbet.com, I wrote: “This was an especially admirable effort by Forte in defeat. At the top of the stretch, you no doubt thought you were going to lose if you had a show parlay riding on Forte when he was sixth and about six lengths off the lead. But even though he raced so wide into the lane and was coming off a 10-week layoff, Forte managed to finish second while losing for only the second time in eight lifetime starts. Even though Forte didn’t win the Belmont, I have even more respect for him than ever before after he ran as well as he did under the circumstances to finish second.”
Further explaining the equipment change to have Forte race with blinkers in the Jim Dandy, Pletcher was quoted as saying in the NYRA press office’s Jim Dandy preview: “It’s hard to think about making a change off multiple [good performances] in a row, but he’s always been a very intelligent colt and he’s gotten a little more complacent. Everything comes so easily to him that he was maybe getting a little wise to it. We just need him to get a little more focused.”
Forte wore blinkers last Saturday (July 22) in a workout on the Saratoga main track with Emmanuel, who won the Grade III Poker Stakes on turf June 10 at Belmont Park. You can watch this team drill on XBTV here.
Equibase has Forte being clocked four furlongs in :50:00, while Emmanuel’s time is listed as :50.14. Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. was aboard Forte.
Daily Racing Form timed Forte working four furlongs in :50.09, going in splits of :12.56 for the first furlong and :24.66 for the initial quarter-mile.
“Forte got his last quarter in :25.43 but did gallop out clear of Emmanuel through five furlongs in 1:02.78 and six furlongs in 1:15.31,” Grening wrote.
“You could see going to the [half-mile] pole he was locked in, he was a little more aggressive going to the pole, then settled into a good rhythm,” Grening quoted Pletcher as saying. “Irad said during the gallop out when he asked him he responded right away and didn’t seem to care what his workmate was doing as much.”
On Jan. 14, Forte worked in company with Grand Sonata on Saratoga’s Oklahoma training track. Equibase lists each colt being timed four furlongs on a wet track rated good in :48.90. You also can watch this workout on XBTV: https://www.xbtv.com/video/violence/forte-outiside-and-grand-sonata-worked-4-furlongs-in-48-90-at-saratoga-on-july-14th-2023/
Grand Sonata has lost eight in a row since winning the Grade III Kitten’s Joy Stakes on turf at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 1, 2022.
It was after Grand Sonata stayed a length or so ahead of Forte when they were galloping out that Pletcher and Ortiz felt that trying Forte with blinkers probably was the right thing to do.
Forte no doubt will be favored at a short price in the Jim Dandy. Mike Repole, who owns the colt in partnership with Vinnie and Teresa Viloa, is confident that Forte will win the Jim Dandy.
“You’re going to see Saturday what I know I see -- the best 3-year-old in the country win the Jim Dandy at 3-5,” Repole was quoted as saying on the DRF website Wednesday (July 26). “That’s what you’re going to see and then you’ll [have] the Travers favorite.”
Repole’s confidence notwithstanding, I am not going to make Forte my top pick in the Jim Dandy, mainly because he no doubt will be a short price in the wagering. As stated earlier, I have much respect for Forte. But insofar as I don’t particularly like it that he seemingly now needs blinkers, I think this might be a good time to take a shot with someone else at a better price.
I am going with Saudi Crown. He had not even been mentioned as being a possibility for the race and then -- surprise! -- the Always Dreaming colt popped up in the Jim Dandy entries.
Trained by Brad Cox, Saudi Crown won his first two races while registering Beyers of 97 and 93, then made his stakes debut in Belmont Park’s Grade II Dwyer Stakes at one mile July 1. I made a win wager on 3-5 favorite Fort Bragg in the Dwyer.
Saudi Crown stepped the first quarter in :22.47, then he reeled off fast splits of :44.63 for the half-mile, 1:08.84 for six furlongs and 1:21.60 for seven furlongs. Coming into the stretch, I thought Fort Bragg was a cinch. I expected Saudi Crown’s early efforts to take a toll on him in the final furlong.
But Saudi Crown battled Fort Bragg tooth-and-nail all the way down to a desperately close finish. Fort Bragg eked out a nose victory. Saudi Crown finished 11 lengths clear of third.
I was extremely impressed by what I saw from Saudi Crown in the Dwyer. My view that Saudi Crown’s Dwyer performance was terrific is supported by his 106 Beyer Speed Figure. Forte? He has never recorded a Beyer higher than 100.
I think there is a chance that Saudi Crown might be able to control the Jim Dandy on the front end without having to go as fast early as he did in the Dwyer, which could make him difficult to catch.
Below are my selections for the Jim Dandy Stakes:
1. Saudi Crown
2. Forte
3. Disarm
4. Angel of Empire
Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen trains Disarm, who finished a creditable fourth in the Kentucky Derby. The Gun Runner colt then won the Grade III Matt Winn Stakes by a half-length at Ellis Park on June 11. Verifying went on to finish second in the Matt Winn, then won the Grade III Indiana Derby at Horseshoe Indianapolis on July 8 for Cox.
I really believe that there could be huge upside with Disarm. I get the feeling he might get better as he gets older, like a fine wine and like his sire, who reached his best form during the second half of his 5-year-old campaign in 2017.
“He looks so similar to his father, who was third in the [Kentucky Derby] and came back to win the Matt Winn,” Asmussen was quoted as saying in the NYRA press office Jim Dandy preview. “Gun Runner was solid as can be as a 3-year-old and was Horse of the Year as a 4-year-old. We want to allow for that sort of development with Disarm as well."
In 2017, Gun Runner won the Grade I Stephen Foster Handicap by seven lengths in June, Grade I Whitney Stakes by 5 1/4 lengths in August, Grade I Woodward Stakes by 10 1/4 lengths in September and Grade I BC Classic by 2 1/4 lengths in November.
In addition to Saudi Crown, Cox sends out Angel of Empire and Hit Show in the Jim Dandy.
Angel of Empire was my top pick in the Belmont Stakes. He finished in a dead heat with Hit Show for fourth.
Prior to the Belmont, Angel of Empire won the Grade II Risen Star Stakes and Grade I Arkansas Derby prior to finishing a respectable third in the Kentucky Derby.
Hit Show ran fifth in the Kentucky Derby. His lone 2023 triumph came in the Grade III Withers Stakes on Feb. 11.
MANDELLA WINS ANOTHER HASKELL
Richard Mandella now is two for two in Monmouth Park’s Grade I Haskell Stakes.
Back in 2000, Mandella showed up at the Jersey Shore to run Dixie Union in the Haskell. In his most recent start prior to the Haskell, the Dixieland Band colt had finished second as the 4-5 favorite in the Grade III Affirmed Handicap at Hollywood Park.
Chalk bettors took it on the chin when Dixie Union didn’t win the Affirmed. But looking back all these years later, his narrow defeat is forgivable. That’s because he lost to none other to future Hall of Famer Tiznow, who would go on to win the BC Classic in 2000 and 2001, a feat that still no other horse has duplicated.
Dixie Union won the Haskell by three-quarters of a length at odds of 9-2. Finishing second as the 8-5 favorite was Captain Steve for Bob Baffert.
Mandella was inducted into the Hall of Fame the year after Dixie Union won the Haskell. Baffert was enshrined in 2009.
The year after Captain Steve’s defeat in the Haskell, Baffert won the race for the first time with Point Given, followed by War Emblem in 2020, Roman Ruler in 2005, Lookin At Lucky in 2010, Coil in 2011, Paynter in 2012, Bayern in 2014 and American Pharoah in 2015.
Baffert was represented in this year’s Haskell by the favorite, Arabian Knight, who was hammered down to 11-10 favoritism despite not having raced since late January. In his only two starts before the Haskell, the Uncle Mo colt had won a maiden special weight race at Keeneland by 7 1/4 lengths last Nov. 5 and Oaklawn Park’s Grade III Southwest Stakes by 5 1/2 lengths on a sloppy track Jan. 28.
But as was the case in 2000, it was Mandella winning the 2023 Haskell while defeating a Baffert favorite. This time Mandella did it with Geaux Rocket Ride, who received a marvelous ride by Hall of Famer Mike Smith.
Close up early in the field of eight, Geaux Rocket Ride moved up to take on the leading Arabian Knight midway on the far turn. Mage then joined them while three wide turning into the stretch.
Arabian Knight dropped back in upper stretch while Geaux Rocket Ride and Mage were locked in a fierce head-and-head battle for the lead. And then, after passing the eighth pole, Geaux Rocket Ride drew clear to prevail by 1 3/4 lengths in 1:49.52. Mage had to settle for second while finishing two lengths clear of Arabian Knight in third. Extra Anejo ended up fourth.
Extra Anejo was my top pick in the Haskell. Importantly, he did not break alertly, which was not noted in the Equibase chart comments. I was disappointed that Extra Anejo lost by 5 3/4 lengths, but I’m not going to judge him too harshly because of his sluggish start and the fact that he was making his stakes debut against such tough opponents.
As for Mage, I loved him to win the Preakness. He let me down by finishing third. As I wrote last week, in Mage’s defense, it didn’t help him in the Preakness that the pace was much slower than it had been in the Kentucky Derby. But I thought Mage would be good enough to win the Preakness even if the pace was moderate. He wasn’t.
I thought Mage was in a perfect spot at the top of the lane in the Preakness. But he had no late kick. He just came home evenly when outrun by National Treasure and Blazing Sevens.
Once again in the Haskell, I thought Mage was in a perfect spot at the top of the lane. This time, he could not keep up with Geaux Rocket Ride in the final furlong.
I would have preferred to see more from Mage during the stretch run in both the Preakness and Haskell. Perhaps he lacked the needed late punch in those races because there were only two weeks between the Kentucky Derby and Preakness and because he was a workout or two shy of what his connections would have preferred for the Haskell
“Sometimes you win without winning,” part owner Ramiro Restrepo said to the DRF’s Grening of Mage’s Haskell in which the colt had four published workouts since the May 20 Preakness. “I know he wasn’t 100 percent. He’s 100 percent sound and 100 percent ready to compete, but you know there’s more in the well. You know he’s going to move forward off this race and that’s what you’re looking for.”
Next up for Mage will be his primary summertime target, the Grade I, $1.25 million Travers Stakes at Saratoga on Aug. 26.
There will be no Travers for Geaux Rocket Ride. Mandella has ruled it out. The colt is back in Southern California and Mandella is not interested in another trip for the colt so soon after the Haskell.
Daily Racing Form’s Steve Andersen reported that Geaux Rocket Ride “is likely to start against older horses for the first time in the Grade I Pacific Classic at Del Mar on Sept. 2.”
Five 3-year-olds have won the Pacific Classic in its 32-history, starting with Best Pal in the inaugural running in 1991 (I called that official chart for the Daily Racing Form) and followed by General Challenge in 1999, Came Home in 2002, Dullahan in 2012 and Shared Belief in 2014.
Geaux Rocket Ride’s sire, Candy Ride, won the 2003 Pacific Classic by 3 1/4 lengths in the final start of his career. Candy Ride completed 1 1/4 miles in 1:59.11 to set a track record that still stands 20 years later.
Mandella has four Pacific Classic wins to his credit. He sent out Dare and Go to take the 1996 renewal, which put an end to the great Cigar’s 16-race winning streak. Mandella also won the race with Gentlemen in 1997, Pleasantly Perfect in 2004 and the remarkable mare Beholder in 2015. Beholder has the distinction of being the lone filly or mare to have ever won the Pacific Classic.
A NEW TOP BEYER ACHIEVED
Geaux Rocket Ride recorded a 100 Beyer for his Haskell victory, his best figure so far. His previous top had been a 96 when he ran second to Practical Move in the San Felipe. Practical Move was credited with a 100 Beyer in the San Felipe, a figure that he likewise posted in the Santa Anita Derby.
Below are Beyer Speed Figures for Haskell winners going back to 1991 (the first year they were listed in the American Racing Manual):
2023 Geaux Rocket Ride (100)
2022 Cyberknife (102)
2021 Mandaloun (102)*
2020 Authentic (100)
2019 Maximum Security (102)
2018 Good Magic (98)
2017 Girvin (95)
2016 Exaggerator (101)
2015 American Pharoah (109)
2014 Bayern (111)
2013 Verrazano (116)
2012 Paynter (107)
2011 Coil (96)
2010 Lookin At Lucky (106)
2009 Rachel Alexandra (116)
2008 Big Brown (106)
2007 Any Given Saturday (113)
2006 Bluegrass Cat (106)
2005 Roman Ruler (108)
2004 Lion Heart (109)
2003 Peace Rules (109)
2002 War Emblem (112)
2001 Point Given (106)
2000 Dixie Union (111)
1999 Menifee (110)
1998 Coronado’s Quest (110)
1997 Touch Gold (114)
1996 Skip Away (113)
1995 Serena’s Song (110)
1994 Holy Bull (115)
1993 Kissin Kris (108)
1992 Technology (108)
1991 Lost Mountain (107)
*Mandaloun finished second, then was elevated to first via the disqualification of Hot Rod Charlie, who also received a 102 Beyer Speed Figure
OVERLOOKED BY THE BETTORS
As mentioned earlier, Geaux Rocket Ride was sent off as the 11-10 favorite in the Haskell. Linemaker Brad Thomas had made him a 5-2 morning-line favorite. Thomas pegged Mage and Tapit Trice as co-second choices at 3-1, with Geaux Rocket Ride at 9-2.
I wrote last week that I expected Mage to end up being lower than his 3-1 morning line because being a Kentucky Derby winner has a lot of cachet. Well, I was wrong about that. Mage was sent away at 4-1. I had expected him to be 2-1 or 5-2. In fact, according to horseracingnation.com, in the fixed-odds market, Mage did open as the 2-1 favorite by MonmouthBets, followed by Arabian Knight at 5-2, Tapit Trice at 7-2, Extra Anejo at 6-1 and Geaux Rocket Ride at 8-1.
It turned out that Geaux Rocket Ride was 12-1 when he left the starting gate. That’s what you call an overlay, folks. If I had known that Geaux Rocket Ride’s price would be around 12-1, I might have made him my top pick. Consider what I wrote about him for Xpressbet.com last week:
“I think Geaux Rocket Ride also should be taken very seriously. Why? Primarily because of the way trainer Richard Mandella has talked so enthusiastically about him on a number of occasions and the way the Hall of Fame horseman has managed him.”
I noted that after Geaux Rocket Ride won a six-furlong maiden special weight race by 5 3/4 lengths at Santa Anita on Jan. 29 in his career debut, Mandella ran him next in the Grade II San Felipe Stakes on March 4. This indicated what Mandella thought of the colt. You don’t see Mandella do something like that very often.
I felt that what Mandella did with Geaux Rocket Ride was similar to what he had done with Omaha Beach. After Omaha Beach won a maiden race by nine lengths on a sloppy track in his fifth career start, Mandella hiked him substantially in class and ran him in Oaklawn Park’s Grade II Rebel Stakes, which the colt won at 4-1.
Geaux Rocket Ride was backed down to 5-2 favoritism in the San Felipe. He ran second to Practical Move. Geaux Rocket Ride then was scratched from the Grade I Santa Anita Derby on April 8 due to an elevated temperature.
After missing the Santa Anita Derby, Geaux Rocket Ride won Santa Anita’s Affirmed Stakes by 1 3/4 lengths on June 4. Mandella then set his sights on the Haskell with him.
Practical Move, who won the Santa Anita Derby, is the only horse to have defeated Geaux Rocket Ride. Trained by Tim Yakteen, Practical Move has not raced since the Santa Anita Derby. He was scratched from the Kentucky Derby two days before the race when it was reported that he had an elevated temperature.
The DRF’s Andersen provided a Practical Move update last Sunday. The colt recently resumed training at Del Mar, according to Yakteen.
A NEW NO. 1 IN MY 3-YEAR-OLD MALE RANKINGS
Geaux Rocket Ride climbs to the top spot in my 3-year-old male ranking this week after being No. 9 last week. Mage, who was No. 1 last week, drops to No. 4 this week.
Below is my current Top 10 in the 3-year-old male division:
Rank Horse
1. Geaux Rocket Ride
2. Arcangelo
3. Forte
4. Mage
5. Arabian Lion
6. Arabian Knight
7. National Treasure
8. Disarm
9. Extra Anejo
10. Scotland
LONGINES BREEDERS’ CUP CLASSIC RANKINGS
Following his upset victory in the Haskell, Geaux Rocket Ride has rocketed onto the Top 10 at No. 6 in this week’s Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic Rankings. He was No. 30 in last week’s rankings.
This year’s Breeders’ Cup will be held at Santa Anita on Nov. 3-4. The $6 milllion Classic will be on Nov. 4.
The Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic Rankings are determined by a panel of voters comprised of members of the Breeders’ Cup Racing/Secretaries Panel, international racing and sports media, plus racing analysts.
The rankings will be updated weekly through Oct. 10.
This week’s rankings are below:
Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)
1. 315 Cody’s Wish (25)
2. 233 West Will Power (3)
3. 206 Forte (1)
4. 193 Defunded (2)
5. 178 Mage
6. 160 Geaux Rocket Ride (1)
7. 143 Arcangelo
8. 105 Rattle N Roll (1)
9. 86 Charg It
10. 50 Art Collector
TOP 10 IN THIS WEEK’S NTRA TOP THOROUGHBRED POLL
Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)
1. 346 Cody’s Wish (31)
2. 303 Elite Power (4)
3. 214 Nest
4. 203 West Will Power
5. 186 Up to the Mark
6. 158 Clairiere
7. 113 Caravel
8. 107 Defunded
9. 64 In Antalian
10. 42 Goodnight Olive
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