$1 MILLION JUVENILE TURF SPRINT (FRIDAY)
(Note: Official Morning-Line Odds by Nick Tammaro)
1. LOVE REIGNS (4-1 on the morning line)
Trainer wins this race for 4th straight year?
2. PRIVATE CREED (12-1)
Off-the-pace type helped by likely fast pace
3. THE PLATINUM QUEEN (7-2)
Classy French filly’s first race around a turn
Nice-price danger: AMERICAN APPLE (20-1)
A juicy “Apple” at 20-1 ML off G3 BAQ win
$2 MILLION JUVENILE FILLIES (FRIDAY)
1. CHOCOLATE GELATO (7-2)
Can provide Pletcher with his first win in this race
2. WONDER WHEEL (5-1)
Sent from rail in G1 victory; stalking trip here?
3. CHOP CHOP (4-1)
Huge effort to lose by nose to Wonder Wheel
Nice-price danger: GRAND LOVE (20-1)
Threat at very nice price off one back at Saratoga
Nice-price danger: ATOMICALLY (12-1)
Emphatic Gulfstream win in first 2-turn race
$1 MILLION JUVENILE FILLIES TURF (FRIDAY)
1. LAST CALL (20-1)
G1 Natalma win + Dettori + 20-1 ML = top pick
2. MEDITATE (4-1)
ML chalk major player off fine European form
3. DELIGHT (6-1)
Sports 5-length G2 win on Keeneland lawn
Nice-price danger: PLEASANT PASSAGE (12-1)
Improving and has pair of route starts under her belt
$2 MILLION JUVENILE (FRIDAY)
1. CAVE ROCK (4-5)
Should rock and roll and stay undefeated
2. NATIONAL TREASURE (8-1)
Youngster has much upside; Baffert exacta?
3. FORTE (4-1)
Two-time G1 winner warrants respect
Nice-price danger: VERIFYING (10-1)
Justify colt kin to champion Midnight Bisou
$1 MILLION JUVENILE TURF (FRIDAY)
1. SILVER KNOTT (3-1)
Trainer won 2021 renewal with Modern Games
2. PACKS A WAHLOP (6-1)
Been wahloping Southern California turf foes
3. VICTORIA ROAD (8-1)
G3 victor in France cuts back to one mile
Nice-price danger: MAJOR DUDE (10-1)
Won turf debut; sharp Oct. 21 drill; post concern
$1 MILLION FILLY & MARE SPRINT (SATURDAY)
1. OBLIGATORY (8-1)
Benefits from rapid pace; turns tables on Olive?
2. GOODNIGHT OLIVE (3-1)
Not a sleeper as she seeks her 6th win in a row
3. CE CE (4-1)
Makes final career start; took this race in 2021
Nice-price danger: CHI TOWN LADY (20-1)
Comes running late under Prat to hit board?
$1 MILLION TURF SPRINT (SATURDAY)
1. GOLDEN PAL (2-1)
Last race for colt undefeated in U.S. grass sprints
2. HIGHFIELD PRINCESS (7-2)
Razor-sharp Euro looms main threat to Golden Pal
3. CAMPANELLE (8-1)
Golden Pal’s stablemate has won 6 of 10 in career
Nice-price danger: CREATIVE FORCE (10-1)
Respectable 3rd to BC Mile contender Kinross
$1 MILLION DIRT MILE (SATURDAY)
1. CODY’S WISH (5-2)
Loved the way he surged past Jackie’s Warrior
2. GUNITE (7-2)
Back in 2 weeks off stylish Perryville score
3. CYBERKNIFE (9-2)
Sophomore has hit board in 6 of last 7 starts
Nice-price danger: SENOR BUSCADOR (12-1)
Long-fused runner is 2 for 2 at one mile
$2 MILLION FILLY & MARE TURF (SATURDAY)
1. IN ITALIAN (7-2)
Back-to-back front-running G1 wins on NY grass
2. ABOVE THE CURVE (9-2)
Lost 2nd by nose to Nashwa in G1 affair in France
3. NASHWA (5-2)
Filly by superstar Frankel a dual G1 winner in 2022
Nice-price danger: ROUGIR (12-1)
Strong late kick to take G1 E.P. Taylor in Canada
$2 MILLION SPRINT (SATURDAY)
1. JACKIE’S WARRIOR (4-5)
Looks poised to avenge 2021 BC Sprint defeat
2. KIMARI (4-1)
Opted to face males rather than go 7f vs. gals
3. ELITE POWER (6-1)
Curlin colt has reeled off 4 straight wins for Mott
Nice-price danger: AMERICAN THEOREM (10-1)
Won 7f Triple Bend, 6f Bing Crosby in SoCal
$2 MILLION MILE (SATURDAY)
1. MODERN GAMES (7-2)
Appleby won this race with Space Blues last year
2. KINROSS (9-2)
Bids for 5th straight win but post 13 a negative
3. DREAMLOPER (6-1)
Trounced males at G1 level in France
Nice-price danger: ANNAPOLIS (10-1)
G1 mile grass win at Keeneland best race yet
Nice-price danger: SMOOTH LIKE STRAIT (10-1)
Gem of consistency; 2nd in 2021 renewal
$2 MILLION DISTAFF (SATURDAY)
1. SOCIETY (6-1)
Bad start in only loss; can they catch her?
2. NEST (9-5)
Star 3-year-old much the best in last 3 races
3. MALATHAAT (3-1)
G1 Spinster winner 3 for 3 at Keeneland
Nice-price danger: BLUE STRIPE (20-1)
Very interesting off G1 win at Del Mar
$4 MILLION TURF (SATURDAY)
1. WAR LIKE GODDESS (9-2)
Terrific mare merits oodles of respect
2. REBEL’S ROMANCE (3-1)
One to beat off wins in England, Germany
3. NATIONS PRIDE (7-2)
Appleby potent 1-2 punch with top choice
Nice-price danger: MASTER PIECE (20-1)
Maybe this guy gets a piece at big price
$6 MILLION CLASSIC (SATURDAY)
1. FLIGHTLINE (3-5)
Only Shergar-like kidnapping can stop him
2. TAIBA (8-1)
Baffert has won both Classics at Keeneland
3. EPICENTER (5-1)
His 5 1/4-length Travers triumph was stellar
Nice-price danger: none
Note: Flightline is my choice as the “most probable winner” at this year’s Breeders’ Cup. My most probable Breeders’ Cup winner has won in 13 of the 18 last years.
Nick Tammaro has installed Flightline as a 3-5 morning-line favorite. That’s fine. But as someone who has made the morning line for seven Breeders’ Cup, most recently last year at Del Mar, I would have made him 2-5.
As I have written previously for Xpressbet.com, I think he has an excellent chance to break Easy Goer’s record for lowest odds by a BC Classic favorite. Easy Goer was 1-2 when he finished second to 2-1 Sunday Silence in the 1989 BC Classic at Gulfstream Park.
One of the reasons I will not be surprised if Flightline’s off odds are lower than 3-5 is he’s undefeated in five starts by a combined margin of 62 3/4 lengths, which gives him an aura of invincibility. Also, I don’t expect any of Flightline’s BC Classic opponents to attract enough money to be anywhere close to 2-1. That’s an indication to me that Flightline’s BC Classic odds will be lower than Easy Goer’s 1-2 price in 1989.
Other than Flightline, my next “most probable winner” this year is Golden Pal in the BC Turf Sprint.
Below is a list of my most probable Breeders’ Cup winner for each year going back to 2004:
2021 Gamine in Filly & Mare Sprint (finished third)
2020 Golden Pal in the Juvenile Turf Sprint (won)
2019 Midnight Bisou (finished second)
2018 Newspaperofrecord in the Juvenile Fillies Turf (won)
2017 Bolt d’Oro in the Juvenile (finished third)
2016 Dortmund in the Dirt Mile (finished fourth)
2015 Songbird in the Juvenile Fillies (won)
2014 Goldencents in the Dirt Mile (won)
2013 Wise Dan in the Mile (won)
2012 Groupie Doll in the Filly & Mare Sprint (won)
2011 Goldikova in the Mile (won)
2010 Goldikova in the Mile (won)
2009 Zenyatta in the Classic (won)
2008 Zenyatta in the Ladies’ Classic (won)
2007 Midnight Lute in the Sprint (won)
2006 Ouija Board in the Filly & Mare Turf (won)
2005 Ouija Board in the Filly & Mare Turf (finished second)
2004 Ouija Board in the Filly & Mare Turf (won)
UNDERCARD SPOTLIGHT
In the first race at Keeneland on Saturday (Nov. 5), Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert unveils a $2.3 million auction purchase by the name of Arabian Knight. Yes, the Uncle Mo colt is the 2-1 morning-line favorite. But I can tell you that I will be thrilled if he does not go off at lower odds than 2-1 because I will be making a win wager on him no matter how low the price goes.
Check out Arabian Knight’s Oct. 29 workout at Santa Anita on XBTV: https://www.xbtv.com/video/into-mischief/laurel-river-outside-and-arabian-knight-worked-at-santa-anita-park-on-october-29th-2022/
In that Oct. 29 team drill, Arabian Knight, a 2-year-old, held his own quite nicely with 4-year-old Laurel River.
Laurel River is a contender in the fifth race at Keeneland on Saturday, the BC Dirt Mile. In his most recent start, Laurel River won Del Mar’s Grade II Pat O’Brien Stakes by 3 3/4 lengths on Aug. 27, a sparkling effort that produced a 108 Beyer Speed Figure.
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