Track Phantom drew the outside post in a field of 12 and has been installed as the 3-1 morning-line favorite in this year’s $1 million Louisiana Derby. The Grade II event will be contested at 1 3/16 miles on Fair Grounds’ main track this Saturday (March 23).
From the rail out, the Louisiana Derby field consists of Triple Espresso (20-1 on the morning-line), Hall of Fame (8-1), Antiquarian (12-1), Agate Road (8-1), Catching Freedom (4-1), Awesome Ruta (30-1), Honor Marie (8-1), Next Level (30-1), Real Men Violin (20-1), Common Defense (6-1), Tuscan Gold (8-1) and Track Phantom (3-1).
Triple Espresso and Agate Road, both trained by Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher, are cross-entered in Saturday’s Grade III Jeff Ruby at Turfway Park.
Daily Racing Form’s Marcus Hersh reported that Pletcher is running Agate Road in the Louisiana Derby and sending Triple Espresso to the Jeff Ruby. Triple Espresso is the second horse on the also-eligible list in the Jeff Ruby, but he is certain to move up one slot with Agate Road coming out of the race, Hersh noted. Triple Espresso will still need a second defection to get into the race.
I don’t consider Post 12 to be a major obstacle for Track Phantom. That’s because there is a long run down the stretch before reaching the clubhouse turn. However, what is a concern for me is whether he has the stamina to succeed at this 1 3/16-mile trip.
Track Phantom set the pace and had a 1 1/2-length lead a furlong from home in the Grade II Risen Star Stakes at 1 1/8 miles, which was run Feb. 17 on a sloppy track. Making his first start beyond 1 1/16 miles, the Kentucky-bred Quality Road colt finished second and lost by a half-length when unable to stave off Sierra Leone’s late charge.
On the plus side for Track Phantom vis-a-vis the Louisiana Derby, his Risen Star defeat did come at the hands of the 3-year-old widely considered at this time to be the Kentucky Derby favorite.
On the negative side, after being overtaken late in the Risen Star, Track Phantom now must travel a sixteenth of a mile farther than in the Risen Star. That extra sixteenth bugs me.
One thing that might help Track Phantom is it appears that there isn’t all that much other early speed in the Louisiana Derby.
“He’s a wonderful horse,” Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen was quoted as saying of Track Phanton in the track’s Louisiana Derby preview. “I’m very fortunate to have him for the 3-year-old series here…Hopefully we can get back to the winner’s circle with him on Saturday. Obviously, we like his chances.”
Will I be surprised if Track Phantom gets the job done this Saturday? Heck no. But as I said, I’m just not sold on him being able to win going this far. Plus, I’d be more tempted to put him on top if his top Beyer Speed Figure was higher than a 90.
Hall of Fame (pictured above), an enticing 8-1 on the morning line, is my choice to win the Louisiana Derby. Also trained by Asmussen, the $1.4 million auction buy recorded a 94 Beyer Speed Figure when he won a 1 1/16-mile Fair Grounds maiden race by 10 1/4 lengths on Jan. 20 in his second career start.
In his next appearance under silks, Hall of Fame ran seventh in the Risen Star. As I’ve said and written many times through the years, a horseplayer should never hold a single defeat against a horse too much. That’s why I stuck with Secretariat as my top choice in the 1973 Kentucky Derby even after he had finished third to Angle Light and Sham only two weeks earlier in the Wood Memorial.
I’m hoping Hall of Fame goes out there and rebounds from his disappointing Risen Star performance. The fact that Asmussen is running him in the Louisiana Derby off an 8 1/4-length defeat indicates to me that North America’s all-time leading trainer in victories has not lost confidence in the Kentucky-bred Gun Runner colt.
“No excuses on the going,” Asmussen said of Hall of Fame’s Risen Star loss on the wet track. “We like who he is, like how he came out of it, like how he’s trained back, and feel very fortunate to have this good of a 3-year-old at this time of the year in this significant of a race.”
Honor Marie, like Hall of Fame, is attempting to bounce back after a Risen Star loss. Far back when 11th early in the Risen Star, he never threatened, though he did gain some in the lane to finish fifth, 6 1/4 lengths behind the victorious Sierra Leone.
The Feb. 17 Risen Star was Honor Marie’s first start following a layoff. He had not raced since rallying from eighth to win Churchill Downs’ Grade II Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes by two lengths on Nov. 25 for trainer Whit Beckman. Honor Marie’s 92 Beyer on Nov. 25 shows me that he is quite capable of winning the Louisiana Derby, especially since the Kentucky-bred Honor Code colt now has that Risen Star effort under his belt.
Agate Road, a $650,000 auction buy, comes off a good try in Tampa Bay Downs’ Grade III Sam F. Davis Stakes on Feb. 10. Eleventh early at odds of 4-1, the Kentucky-bred Quality Road colt generated a long rally to finish second, 1 1/4 lengths behind front-runner No More Time, whose odds plummeted from 5-1 entering the gate to 3-1 during the race.
Trained by Brad Cox, $575,000 auction purchase Catching Freedom ran third in the Risen Star. It appears that the Kentucky-bred Constitution colt might relish going 1 3/16 miles.
Common Defense could have a big say this Saturday after finishing second at 27-1 to 4-5 favorite Timberlake in Oaklawn Park’s Grade II Rebel Stakes on Feb. 24. Kenny McPeek conditions Common Defense, a Kentucky-bred Karakontie colt.
Lightly raced Antiquarian should not be taken lightly. When unveiled in a one-mile maiden contest at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 13, the Kentucky-bred Preservationist colt finished second to the highly regarded Conquest Warrior. Antiquarian then won a Fair Grounds maiden race at 1 1/16 miles by one length on a sloppy strip Feb. 17.
Below are my Louisiana Derby selections:
1. Hall of Fame
2. Track Phantom
3. Honor Marie
4. Agate Road
TURFWAY PARK’S JEFF RUBY
An overflow field of 14, including two also eligibles, has been entered in Saturday’s $700,000 Jeff Ruby at Turfway Park. The Grade III affair will be run at 1 1/8 miles on synthetic footing.
From the rail out, the main body of the field is made up of Freedom Principle (30-1 on the morning line), Dancing Groom (15-1), Lucky Jeremy (10-1), Noted (10-1), Agate Road (4-1), Northern Flame (6-1), Woodcourt (6-1), Otello (12-1), Seize the Grey (8-1), Endlessly (5-2), Baytown Chatterbox (30-1) and West Saratoga (20-1).
The two also eligibles are Circle P (30-1) and Triple Espresso (20-1).
As noted earlier, Agate Road will be running in the Louisiana Derby, according to the DRF’s Hersh. Triple Espresso is being sent to the Jeff Ruby in the hope that he will get into the race from the also-eligible list.
While the morning-line price isn’t great, I do like Endlessly to win the Jeff Ruby. Trained by Michael McCarthy, the Kentucky-bred Oscar Performance colt goes into Saturday’s race off a come-from-behind 1 1/4-length win on a synthetic surface in the Feb. 10 El Camino Real Derby at lame-duck Golden Gate Fields.
Northern Flame is making his synthetic debut. He finished third to Timberlake and Common Defense in Oaklawn’s Grade II Rebel Stakes on Feb. 24. Kenny McPeek trains Northern Flame, a Kentucky-bred Flameaway colt.
I find Freedom Principle to be an intriguing possibility to get into the superfecta at odds of 30-1 on the morning line. He’s switching to synthetic after finishing ninth in Gulfstream Park’s Colonel Liam Stakes on grass March 2. The Kentucky-bred Flameaway colt, trained by Jose Garoffalo, has run well on synthetic at Gulfstream (four starts, two wins, two seconds).
Woodcourt has won two of his last three. Trained by Cipriano Contreras, the Kentucky-bred Ransom the Moon colt won on synthetic footing Dec. 22 at Turfway when claimed for $50,000, then also won an allowance/optional claimer at Oaklawn on Jan. 28. In his most recent start, Woodcourt ran fourth in Oaklawn’s Rebel.
Below are my Jeff Ruby selections:
1. Endlessly
2. Northern Flame
3. Freedom Principle
4. Woodcourt
THIS WEEK’S KENTUCKY DERBY TOP 10
Below is my current Kentucky Derby Top 10:
1. Forever Young
2. Sierra Leone
3. Dornoch
4. Fierceness
5. Timberlake
6. Track Phantom
7. Hades
8. Mystik Dan
9. Deterministic
10. Just a Touch
Moving onto my Top 10 this week is Just a Touch. The Kentucky-bred colt by Triple Crown winner Justify has a win and a second from two career starts. He made a splash -- literally -- when he came home a 4 1/4-length Fair Grounds maiden winner on a sloppy track at first asking Jan. 27. He then finished second to Deterministic in Aqueduct’s Grade III Gotham Stakes on March 2. The track also was sloppy in the Gotham.
Both of Just a Touch’s good performances so far have come on a wet track. What if he’s better on a dry track? If he is, look out.
Born Noble, who was No. 10 last week, exits my Top 10 this week. That’s because as of March 20, he has not had a published workout since March 1.
SIERRA LEONE FAVORED IN KENTUCKY DERBY FUTURE WAGER
As widely expected, Risen Star Stakes winner Sierra Leone was the 7-1 favorite when Pool 5 of the 2024 Kentucky Derby Future Wager (KDFW) closed last Sunday (March 17).
Eclipse Award winner Fierceness ended up being the 9-1 second choice, followed by the “all other 3-year-olds” option at 11-1.
In KDFW Pool 5 last year, Mage closed at 75-1. His odds were 15-1 when victorious on race day.
For Xpressbet.com last week, I wrote that I’d probably put a bit more money on undefeated Forever Young if he stayed around his morning-line odds of 20-1. I already have a pretty sizable wager riding on him at 21-1 in Pool 4. When Forever Young closed at 12-1 in Pool 5, well below his morning line, I stuck to my guns and passed.
I am perfectly happy with my future wager on Forever Young at 21-1.
Forever Young won all three starts last year in Japan. He has the distinction of being that country’s highest-rated 2-year-old dirt horse of all time. When he then won the Group III Saudi Derby in his 3-year-old debut, his dirt prowess was further exemplified by the Thoro-Graph number he received.
While I regard Beyer Speed Figures to be a useful tool for horseplayers, I do believe that Thoro-Graph numbers are superior. That’s because Thoro-Graph takes more factors into account than the Beyers. According to Thoro-Graph, “each number on a sheet represents a performance rating arrived at by using time of the race, beaten lengths, ground lost or saved on the turns, weight carried, and any effects wind conditions had on the time of the race.”
In the case of the Thoro-Graph numbers, a horse who finished second, or even lower, can get a better number than the winner. This is one of the reasons I believe that Thoro-Graph is better than the Beyers. I consider a Thoro-Graph number to be a much truer reflection of a horse’s performance than a Beyer. Thoro-Graph’s approach reflects the reality that the winner is not necessarily the horse who ran the best race.
The winner of a race never gets a lower Beyer Speed Figure than the horse who finished second, the horse who finished second never gets a lower Beyer than the horse who finished third, and so on down through the order of finish.
The best Thoro-Graph number among the 23 individual horses in KDFW Pool 5 is Fierceness’ minus 1 1/2 for his dominant 6 1/4-length triumph in the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at 1 1/16 miles last Nov. 2 at Santa Anita.
The second-best Thoro-Graph number is the 1/4 recorded by Mystik Dan when he romped to an eight-length win in the Grade III Southwest Stakes, which was decided Feb. 3 on a muddy track at Oaklawn Park.
The third-best is Forever Young’s Thoro-Graph number of 1 for his nose victory in the Saudi Derby at one mile.
Forever Young is scheduled to put his unblemished record on the line in the Group II UAE Derby on March 30.
I also wrote last week for Xpressbet.com that I might put a few bucks on Wood Memorial runner-up Just a Touch in KDFW Pool 5 if he stayed in the vicinity of his 30-1 morning line. He closed at 31-1. And so, yes, I put a few bucks on him at the price. This was the only bet I made in Pool 5.
Just a Touch posted a very good 2 1/2 Thoro-Graph number in each of his two starts to date. Keep in mind that early Kentucky Derby favorite Sierra Leone’s best Thoro-Graph number so far is his 4 3/4 for his nose loss to Dornoch in Aqueduct’s Grade II Remsen Stakes on a muddy track last Dec. 2.
Below are the final odds reported by Churchill Downs last Sunday (March 17) for Pool 5 of the 2024 KDFW:
7-1 Sierra Leone
9-1 Fierceness
11-1 All Other 3-Year-Olds
12-1 Forever Young
12-1 Timberlake
13-1 Dornoch
16-1 Conquest Warrior
16-1 Deterministic
16-1 Mystik Dan
20-1 Hades
23-1 Track Phantom
26-1 Catching Freedom
31-1 Just a Touch
33-1 Domestic Product
33-1 Seize the Grey
35-1 Honor Marie
36-1 Tuscan Sky
37-1 Hall of Fame
38-1 Agate Road
45-1 Liberal Arts
48-1 Stronghold
58-1 Encino
59-1 Endlessly
62-1 Common Defense
80-1 Uncle Heavy
81-1 Tuscan Gold
98-1 Top Conor
105-1 Nash
128-1 Resilience
131-1 The Wine Steward
137-1 Just Steel
138-1 El Grande O
144-1 No More Time
154-1 Born Noble
160-1 Be You
183-1 Corporate Power
189-1 Epic Ride
231-1 Time for Truth
263-1 Le Dom Bro
468-1 Lat Long
There will be one more KDFW this year. Pool 6 goes from April 4-6.
IMPEL FAVORED IN KENTUCKY OAKS FUTURE WAGER
The only 2024 Kentucky Oaks Future Wager also closed last Sunday.
For Xpressbet.com last week, I wrote that “if it looks like Impel is going to be 10-1 or higher,” I’ll go ahead and put some money on her. And when the two-for-two filly was 10-1 Sunday afternoon, I did bet her. But when I checked back later a bit later to see what her price was after the pool closed, I saw that she ended up being the 7-1 favorite. (This late odds drop from 10-1 to 7-1 brings to mind the numerous times these days that a horse’s odds drop during a race after I have made a bet on that horse to win, something that happens way too often.)
I also wrote last week that “I definitely will be putting money on Ways and Means, though I must admit that I’m disappointed she isn’t a bigger price than 15-1 on the morning line.”
Well, I was elated to see Ways and Means’s final price as higher than her morning line. She closed at 19-1. When Ways and Means won her debut at Saratoga last summer in jaw-dropping fashion by 12 3/4 lengths, I never dreamed the day would come when I could get her at such high odds for the Kentucky Oaks.
By the way, I wrote last week that “I was glad that I bet $100 on Pretty Mischievous in the Kentucky Oaks Future Wager last year, even though the 10-1 price I got on her in my future wager was only the same as her 10-1 odds on race day when she won the Oaks.”
Upon further investigation, Pretty Mischievous’ odds in the Kentucky Oaks Future Wager last year actually were 15-1, better than her 10-1 price on race day.
Below are the final odds reported by Churchill Downs last Sunday (March 17) for the 2024 Kentucky Oaks Future Wager:
7-1 Impel
8-1 Just F Y I
11-1 Tarifa
12-1 All Other 3-Year-Old Fillies
12-1 Intricate
13-1 Candied
13-1 Jody’s Pride
16-1 Lemon Muffin
17-1 Thorpedo Anna
19-1 Kopion
19-1 Ways and Means
29-1 Halina’s Forte
31-1 Leslie’s Rose
31-1 Our Pretty Woman
32-1 Fiona’s Magic
32-1 My Mane Squeeze
33-1 Gun Song
45-1 Ghalia Princess
49-1 Denim and Pearls
52-1 Alpine Princess
61-1 West Omaha
74-1 Life Talk
77-1 Power Squeeze
79-1 Gin Gin
85-1 Into Champagne
85-1 V V’s Dream
86-1 Carmelina
92-1 Band of Gold
100-1 Maxisuperfly
113-1 All Things Go
131-1 West Sunset
148-1 Scalable
164-1 Midsummer March
166-1 Perfect Shot
180-1 Tapit Jenallie
214-1 Neom Beach
218-1 Pretty Ana
261-1 She’s a Tempest
354-1 Ultimate Authority
530-1 Sistina Chapel
TOP 10 IN THIS WEEK’S NTRA TOP THOROUGHBRED POLL
Below is the Top 10 in this week’s NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll
Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)
1. 304 Senor Buscador (26)
2. 228 Saudi Crown
3. 220 National Treasure (2)
4. 175 Idiomatic (2)
5. 169 Newgate
6. 150 White Abarrio
7. 78 Warm Heart
8. 59 Didia
9. 51 Speed Boat Beach
10. 32 Arabian Knight
Though they did not make the Top 10, The Chosen Vron and Auguste Rodin each received one first-place vote.
TOP 10 IN THIS WEEK’S NTRA TOP THREE-YEAR-OLD POLL
Below is the Top 10 in this week’s NTRA Top Three-Year-Old Poll:
Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)
1. 280 Sierra Leone (10)
2. 226 Timberlake (2)
3. 209 Nysos (17)
4. 205 Dornoch (1)
5. 134 Track Phantom
6. 116 Muth
7. 103 Fierceness
8. 84 Hades
9. 82 Mystik Dan
10. 63 Deterministic
Though she did not make the Top 10, Kinza received two first-place votes.
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