What a difference a year makes.
The Grade I, $1 million Pacific Classic at Del Mar this Saturday (Sept. 2) has lured a field of 11 with no real standout. Last year’s renewal drew a shorter field of just five with a definite standout.
I have installed Geaux Rocket Ride as the morning-line favorite in this year’s Pacific Classic.
From the rail out, the field consists of Geaux Rocket Ride (5-2 on the morning line), Katonah (20-1), Stilleto Boy (8-1), Tripoli (20-1), Defunded (4-1), Order and Law (30-1), Slow Down Andy (8-1), Senor Buscador (10-1), Arabian Knight (3-1), Piroli (20-1) and Skinner (10-1).
Last year, I pegged the undefeated and untested Flightline as a 1-5 favorite on the Pacific Classic morning-line.
Mac MacBride, Del Mar’s director of media, noted that in the history of the Pacific Classic, which was first run in 1991, the only other horse to be such a short-priced morning-line favorite in this race was Cigar in 1996.
Trainer Richard Mandella sent out Dare and Go to win the 1996 Pacific Classic in a 39-1 shocker. The great Cigar, bet down to 1-10 favoritism, had to settle for second. This time Mandella has the Pacific Classic favorite on the morning line in Geaux Rocket Ride instead of a longshot like Dare and Go.
Mandella has three Pacific Classic wins to his credit other than Dare and Go. The Hall of Fame horseman also won this race with Gentlemen in 1997, Pleasantly Perfect in 2004 and the marvelous mare Beholder in 2015.
When I made Flightline’s price 1-5 on the Pacific Classic morning line last year, it drew some criticism. Gee, imagine that, someone knocking a morning line.
What happened? When Flightline broke from the starting gate in the Pacific Classic, his price on the board was 1-5. He then made his low price look like a tremendous overlay by coming up with one of the most impressive performances on the American racing stage in this century so far.
“To call last Saturday’s Grade I, $1 million Pacific Classic a race just doesn’t seem right. Was it really a race? No. It was a wipeout,” I wrote in my recap for Xpressbet.com. “…What Flightline did last Saturday at Del Mar turned out about the same as if LeBron James played a high school kid in a one-on-one basketball game.
“When you get right down to it, the 2022 Pacific Classic at Del Mar just wasn’t fair,” I added. “Flightline really should have been asked to give the others a head start, or at least be ridden by a sumo wrestler instead of Flavien Prat.”
Flightline won by 19 1/4 lengths.
Country Grammer finished second. Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert quipped afterward that Flightline was so far in front at the finish that Country Grammer thought he won the race.
Another Hall of Fame trainer, Bill Mott, who trained two-time Horse of the Year Cigar, said that Flightline “looked spectacular” in a BloodHorse article written by Tim Wilkin. “To me, it was a Secretariat-type performance that we saw. There’s not much more to say about it.”
It was not hyperbole for Mott to say Flightline’s Pacific Classic was a “Secretariat-type performance.” Flightline’s final time was faster than Secretariat’s when he won the 1973 Kentucky Derby.
When Secretariat won the Run for the Roses, he completed 1 1/4 miles in 1:59 2/5 to break Northern Dancer’s track record of 2:00 set in 1964.
Flightline won the Pacific Classic in 1:59 1/5 (1:59.28 in hundredths).
“If Prat had simply flicked his wrists approaching the finish, or maybe even just sneezed, Flightline would have broken the 19-year-old track record of 1:59.11 set by another undefeated runner, Candy Ride, in 2003,” I wrote.
Flightline’s margin of victory demolished the Pacific Classic record of 12 1/2 lengths set by Accelerate in the 2018 Pacific Classic. Accelerate would go on to win the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Classic that year and was voted a 2018 Eclipse Award as champion older male. Flightline likewise went on to win the Grade I BC Classic and was voted 2022 Horse of the Year.
John Sadler trained both Accelerate and Flightline. Sadler, remarkably, has won four of the last five Pacific Classics, as listed below:
2022 Flightline
2021 Tripoli
2019 Higher Power
2018 Accelerate
Tripoli is back for this year’s Pacific Classic. He’s seeking to become a two-time winner of this race. Tripoli was 6-1 when he won it in 2021. He is expected to be a much bigger price this time. I made him 20-1 on the morning line. But by making him 20-1, I actually cut his price virtually in half from his most recent start in Del Mar’s Grade II San Diego Handicap at 1 1/16 miles on July 29. He finished fifth at 38-1 that day.
Since Tripoli won the 2021 Pacific Classic, he’s won just once in 12 starts. That victory came in an allowance contest this year on March 19 at Golden Gate Fields.
I found this to be a very difficult Pacific Classic to try and predict what the final odds are going to be. Mainly due to the size of the field, I made a number of horses a higher price on the morning line than I would have liked.
I’m expecting many people are going to disagree with some of these Pacific Classic prices. And, look, it’s perfectly okay for people to disagree with someone’s morning line. Anyone who makes morning lines knows that comes with the territory. Unfortunately, there are those who can’t seem to help themselves from expressing their disagreement in a scornful, low-class manner.
For example, in the Pacific Classic, I really wanted to make Defunded a shorter price than 4-1. He was 1-5 when he won Santa Anita’s Grade II Californian Stakes and 3-5 when victorious in the Hollywood Gold Cup at the Great Race Place. He was 4-5 when he ran fourth in the San Diego. After being odds-on in three consecutive starts, is his price now going to rise to 4-1? The problem is, if I had lowered him to 3-1 in the Pacific Classic, I then would have had to raise the prices on a number of horses whose odds already are pretty high, such as Stilleto Boy, Senor Buscador and Skinner.
The principal reason for making Defunded 4-1 is I see this as being a much stronger, deeper field than those he defeated in the Californian and Gold Cup.
In the Californian, the runner-up was Royal Ship, who is not nearly as good this year at age 7 as he once was. He finished sixth in the San Diego.
In the Gold Cup, Piroli ran second at odds of 28-1. Kiss Today Goodbye finished third at 37-1. In Piroli’s next start, he could finish no better than fourth as the 9-5 favorite in an allowance/optional claiming contest, though he did stumble at the start and had a wide trip. In Kiss Today Goodbye’s next start, he lost Del Mar’s Grade III Cougar II Stakes by nearly 55 lengths as the 2-1 favorite.
Those recent efforts by Royal Ship, Piroli and Kiss Today Goodbye certainly do not flatter Defunded.
With 11 horses in the Pacific Classic, I just could not go lower than 4-1 on Defunded.
I wanted to make Stilleto Boy 6-1. But again, primarily because of the size of the field, I ended up putting him at 8-1. I reluctantly raised him to 8-1 partly because he’s never been one to get a ton of respect from the bettors.
I made Stilleto Boy 5-1 on the morning line for the Grade I Santa Anita Handicap. He went off at 13-1. (That was fine with me. I bet him at that price and he won.)
Even off Stilleto Boy’s Big ’Cap victory, he didn’t receive strong support in his next race, going off at almost 6-1 when he finished a close third in the Grade II Oaklawn Handicap.
In Stilleto Boy’s most recent start, he was 7-1 in the Grade I Stephen Foster Handicap on July 1. He finished sixth.
When push came to shove in crafting the Pacific Classic morning line, I went with 8-1 on Stilleto Boy instead of the 6-1 that I would have been able to do if there were fewer than 11 horses in the race.
I also would have liked to have made Senor Buscador’s price on the morning line a notch lower at 8-1 than 10-1. Nick Hines on FanDuel TV said the 10-1 morning line on Senor Buscador “is a slap in his face.”
Well, I’m certainly not intending to slap Senor Buscador in the face, figuratively speaking. I am only trying as best I can to forecast what his odds are going to be Saturday. Keep in mind Senor Buscador’s morning line price of 10-1 is LOWER than the 13-1 he was when he won Del Mar’s Grade II San Diego.
As I said, I would have liked to have made Senor Buscador 8-1. Will he end up being lower than 10-1? It wouldn’t surprise me. But I do not expect 10-1 to be way off the mark.
Some may say, “When Senor Buscador won the San Diego, he ran right by Slow Down Andy in the stretch. So why is Senor Buscador 10-1 and Slow Down Andy a shorter price at 8-1?”
Good question. There are two chief reasons for that.
First, in the San Diego, Slow Down Andy at 7-2 was a considerably shorter price than Senor Buscador at 13-1. That’s a big reason why Slow Down Andy is a slightly lower price than Senor Buscador on the Pacific Classic morning line.
Second, Senor Buscador’s record in races farther than 1 1/16 miles has left something to be desired.
When Senor Buscador has gone farther than 1 1/16 miles, he has finished fifth in Fair Grounds’ Grade II Risen Star Stakes, fourth in the Grade II Oaklawn Handicap and fifth in the Hollywood Gold Cup.
I think Senor Buscador has an excellent trainer in Todd Fincher. Based on a comment he made to Daily Racing Form’s Steve Andersen, it does appear that Fincher would prefer the Pacific Classic pace to be faster than what he seems to think it will be.
“I think there will be a decent pace,” Fincher said. “I don’t think it will be a crazy pace. I wish it was.”
I also would have liked to have made Skinner 8-1 instead of 10-1. I know there are a lot of people who feel that this is a very talented Curlin colt in the hands of a master trainer in John Shirreffs. I’m one of them.
But just how much money is Skinner going to take in the wagering Saturday? He has yet to win a stakes race. Heck, he’s still eligible to run in a race restricted to non-winners of two races lifetime.
In his most recent start, Skinner wasn’t even the favorite in the ungraded Los Alamitos Derby, which had a field of five 3-year-olds. Is he really going to get all that much play this time in a Grade I race against older horses and highly regarded 3-year-olds Geaux Rocket Ride and Arabian Knight?
Granted, I would have been able to make Stilleto Boy, Senor Buscador and/or Skinner lower prices simply by raising the odds for Geaux Rocket Ride to 3-1 or 7-2 instead of 5-2. But I just don’t see Geaux Rocket Ride being higher than 5-2. I actually think there is a chance that he will go off lower than 5-2. In a way, I hope that happens. Because if Geaux Rocket Ride goes off at lower than 5-2, it will ensure that the prices I did make on Stilleto Boy, Senor Buscador and/or Skinner likely won’t be considerably higher than their closing odds.
Additionally, because co-favorites on a morning line are a no-no, if I had made Geaux Rocket Ride 3-1 or 7-2, that would have meant having to also raise Arabian Knight to 7-2 or 4-1. I would not feel comfortable making Arabian Knight, a highly regarded Bob Baffert-trained pricey auction purchase, higher than 3-1 in this situation.
Expectations at the barn of Hall of Famer Baffert have been sky high on Arabian Knight, a $2.3 million auction purchase, all along. Yes, he got beat in the Haskell. But don’t forget he was making his first start since Jan. 28. Also don’t forget that Arabian Knight was sent off as the Haskell favorite at slightly more than even money, while Geaux Rocket Ride’s odds were 12-1.
Based on the disparity in the prices between Arabian Knight and Geaux Rocket Ride in the Haskell, plus the way Arabian Knight was bet in his first two races as if he were the second coming of Secretariat, I think there even is a possibility that Arabian Knight will go off as the favorite in the Pacific Classic. That’s why I was not about to make him any higher than 3-1.
In the Haskell, Arabian Knight got into an early pace tussle with 61-1 longshot Awesome Strong, who wound up last in the field of eight.
After losing the 1 1/8-mile Haskell by 3 3/4 lengths, Arabian Knight now must go a furlong further in the Pacific Classic. But I think the pace scenario might be much more to Arabian Knight’s liking this time. I won’t be surprised if he’s able to show the way early without having to go crazy fast. If that does happen, he could get mighty difficult to run down in the stretch.
As for how I envision the Pacific Classic unfolding for Geaux Rocket Ride,
I expect him to save ground while stalking early after beginning from the inside post. It then will be up to his rider, “Big Money” Mike Smith, to find a way to put Geaux Rocket Ride in a prime position to win the race at the top of the lane. From there, it will be up to Kentucky-bred colt to show that he’s up to the task. If he is, it will be Geaux Rocket Ride’s fourth victory in five career starts and his third straight stakes win after taking Santa Anita’s Affirmed Stakes on June 4 and Monmouth Park’s Grade I Haskell Stakes on July 22.
Arcangelo won the Grade I Travers Stakes last week at Saratoga, following in the footsteps of his sire, Arrogate, who broke the track record when he won that race in 2016.
Will it be a similar story this week with Geaux Rocket Ride? Is he going to win the Grade I Pacific Classic, following in the footsteps of his sire, Candy Ride, who broke the track record when he won this race in 2003? I think so.
Below are my Pacific Classic selections:
1. Geaux Rocket Ride
2. Arabian Knight
3. Defunded
4. Stilleto Boy
ARCANGELO MAKES HISTORY
When Arcangelo won the Grade I Travers Stakes at Saratoga last Saturday (Aug. 26), he made racing history.
The Travers dates back to the Civil War. Last Saturday was only the fourth time in that three different winners of a Triple Crown race had ever clashed in the Travers. It happened previously in 1918, 1982 and 2017.
How did Arcangelo make history? Last Saturday, for the first time when three different winners of a Triple Crown race have competed in the Travers, this 1 1/4-mile event was won by one of those three Triple Crown race victors.
In 1918, Sun Briar captured the Travers while defeating Kentucky Derby winner Exterminator, Preakness Stakes winner War Cloud and Belmont Stakes winner Johren.
In 1982, Runaway Groom got the job done in the Travers while outrunning Kentucky Derby winner Gato Del Sol, Preakness winner Aloma’s Ruler and Belmont winner Conquistador Cielo.
In 2017, West Coast took the Travers while beating Kentucky Derby winner Always Dreaming, Preakness winner Cloud Computing and Belmont winner Taprit.
When Arcangelo won the Grade I Belmont Stakes on June 10, his trainer, Jena Antonucci, made history. It marked the first time that a female trainer had won any of the Triple Crown races in the more than 100 years that the three events for 3-year-olds have existed.
It took until the 452nd Triple Crown race, as the Los Angeles Times’ John Cherwa pointed out, for Antonucci to break through with a victory in the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes or Belmont Stakes.
Using various media guides as sources, I compiled a list of all the female trainers to have sent out a horse to finish first, second or third in a Triple Crown race:
Finish Trainer (Horse, Year Triple Crown Race)
1st Jena Antonucci (Arcangelo, 2023 Belmont)
2nd Dianne Carpenter (Kingpost, 1988 Belmont)
2nd Shelley Riley (Casual Lies, 1992 Kentucky Derby)
2nd Nancy Alberts (Magic Weisner, 2002 Preakness)
3rd Shelley Riley (Casual Lies, 1992 Preakness)
3rd Kristin Mulhall (Imperialism, 2004 Kentucky Derby)
3rd Kathy Ritvo (Mucho Macho Man, 2011 Kentucky Derby)
3rd Linda Rice (Max Player, 2020 Belmont)
Earlier this year, Hall of Fame jockey Javier Castellano won his first Kentucky Derby on Mage. Castellano subsequently won his first Belmont aboard Arcangelo.
Castellano rode Arcangelo in the Travers. Flavien Prat piloted Mage.
This was far from Castellano’s first Travers victory. He now has won the Midsummer Derby a record seven times, as listed below:
2023 Arcangelo ($7.40)
2018 Catholic Boy ($16.20)
2015 Keen Ice ($34.00)
2014 V.E. Day ($41.00)
2011 Stay Thirsty ($6.80)
2010 Afleet Express ($16.00)
2006 Bernardini ($2.70)
Castellano’s ride on Arcangelo in the Travers was terrific. After being caught in a minor scrum in the run to the first turn, Castellano was able get Arcangelo into a close-up position in fourth on the backstretch while saving ground inside. Castellano then swung Arcangelo “four to five wide into upper stretch and rallied to take command three-sixteenths from home,” as noted in the Equibase chart comments.
Arcangelo’s stretch run in the Travers was pretty similar to his stretch run in the Belmont.
In the Belmont, Arcangelo opened a 3 1/2-length lead a furlong out and went on to win by 1 1/2 lengths. In the Travers, he had a three-length advantage with a furlong to go and went on to prevail by one length in 2:02.23.
Disarm finished second in the Travers at 12-1 after determinedly coming through claustrophobic quarters in upper stretch to seriously threaten at the sixteenth pole, but he could not run down Arcangelo in the last sixteenth. Still, it was a fine try by Disarm, who finished fourth in the Grade I Kentucky Derby, won the Grade III Matt Winn Stakes and finished fourth in the Grade II Jim Dandy Stakes prior to the Travers.
Tapit Trice, racing with blinkers for the first time, finished third in the Travers at 13-1. He was followed across the finish line by 8-5 favorite Forte, National Treasure at 6-1, Scotland at 7-1 and Mage at 9-2.
UPWARD BEYER TRAJECTORY CONTINUES
“I think all it might take to win this year’s Travers will be something similar to the 105 Beyer when Code of Honor won this race in 2019 or the 104 Beyer when Catholic Boy was victorious in 2018,” I wrote for Xpressbet.com last week.
Arcangelo was credited with a 105 Beyer for his Travers triumph as his figures continue to climb. He posted a 53 at first asking last Dec. 17 at Gulfstream Park, followed by a 70, 84, 97, 102 and last Saturday’s 105.
You rarely see a horse with an improving Beyer Speed Figure pattern in that many races.
Below are Beyer Speed Figures for Travers winners going back to 1990 (the first year they were listed in the American Racing Manual):
2023 Arcangelo (105)
2022 Epicenter (112)
2021 Essential Quality (107)
2020 Tiz the Law (109)
2019 Code of Honor (105)
2018 Catholic Boy (104)
2017 West Coast (108)
2016 Arrogate (122)
2015 Keen Ice (106)
2014 V.E. Day (102)
2013 Will Take Charge (107)
2012 Alpha (100)*
2012 Golden Ticket (100)*
2011 Stay Thirsty (101)
2010 Afleet Express (105)
2009 Summer Bird (110)
2008 Colonel John (106)
2007 Street Sense (108)
2006 Bernardini (116)
2005 Flower Alley (110)
2004 Birdstone (108)
2003 Ten Most Wanted (112)
2002 Medaglia d’Oro (113)
2001 Point Given (117)
2000 Unshaded (109)
1999 Lemon Drop Kid (110)
1998 Coronado’s Quest (107)
1997 Deputy Commander (110)
1996 Will’s Way (114)
1995 Thunder Gulch (110)
1994 Holy Bull (115)
1993 Sea Hero (109)
1992 Thunder Rumble (109)
1991 Corporate Report (109)
1990 Rhythm (104)
*Dead heat
LONGINES BREEDERS’ CUP CLASSIC RANKINGS
Following Arcangelo’s Travers victory, he has ascended to the top spot in this week’s Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic Rankings. He was No. 5 last week.
Forte had been No. 1 in the poll for the past three weeks. He drops to fourth this week after finishing fourth in the Travers.
The Breeders’ Cup will be held this year at Santa Anita on Nov. 3-4. The $6 million Classic will be on Nov. 4.
The Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic Rankings are determined by a panel of voters comprised of members of the Breeders’ Cup Racing/Secretaries Panel, international racing and sports media, plus racing analysts.
The rankings will be updated weekly through Oct. 10.
The Top 10 in this week’s rankings are below:
Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)
1. 318 Arcangelo (17)
2. 260 White Abarrio (8)
3. 231 Geaux Rocket Ride (2)
4. 273 Forte (1)
5. 230 Rattle N Roll (2)
6. 111 Defunded (2)
7. 108 Disarm
8. 91 Zandon
9. 78 Proxy
10. 61 Mage
TOP 10 IN THIS WEEK’S NTRA TOP THOROUGHBRED POLL
Arcangelo, who was No. 15 last week, soared to the No. 2 spot in this week’s NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll in the wake of his win in the Travers.
Cody’s Wish, No. 2 last week, is No. 1 this week.
Elite Power, No. 1 last week, drops to No. 3 this week after finishing second to Gunite in the Grade I Forego Stakes at Saratoga last Saturday.
Gunite is a newcomer on the Top 10 this week at No. 6.
Echo Zulu and Idiomatic are two more newcomers on this week’s Top 10. Echo Zulu is No. 4 after winning Saratoga’s Grade I Ballerina Handicap with aplomb. Idomatic is No. 9 after her front-running win in the Grade I Personal Ensign Stakes at the Spa last Friday (Aug. 25).
Below is the Top 10 in this week’s NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll:
Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)
1. 292 Cody’s Wish (6)
2. 290 Arcangelo (21)
3. 251 Elite Power (3)
4. 216 Echo Zulu (2)
5. 200 White Abarrio (1)
6. 190 Gunite (2)
7. 140 Up to the Mark (2)
8. 79 Casa Creed
9. 67 Idiomatic
10. 65 Nest
.svg){kind=logo}
