The sole Grade I race in the United States on Saturday will showcase 3-year-old grass performers in the Hollywood Derby at Del Mar. The 1 1/8-mile affair has attracted a field of nine.
Del Mar’s fall Bing Crosby meet then will be adjourned at the conclusion of the Sunday card, which will be highlighted by fillies and mares clashing in the Grade I Matriarch Stakes.
The Hollywood Derby was inaugurated in 1938 at Hollywood Park. When contested on the dirt, this race has been won by such equine luminaries as Swaps (1955), Round Table (1957), Riva Ridge (1972), Crystal Water (1976), Affirmed (1978), Flying Paster (1979) and Codex (1980).
The great Affirmed used the Hollywood Derby as a springboard to a Triple Crown sweep in 1978, a monumental feat that was not duplicated for 37 years until American Pharoah won the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes in 2015.
From 1981 to the present, the Hollywood Derby has been run on the turf, during which time it’s been won by the likes of Royal Heroine (1983), Olympio (1991), Paradise Creek (1992), Marlin (1996), Johar (2002), California Chrome (2014), Mo Forza (2019) and Domestic Spending (2020).
From the rail out, this year’s Hollywood Derby field consists of Silver Knott, Maltese Falcon, Reiquist, Watsonville, Webslinger, Santorini, Redistricting, Program Trading and Seal Team.
Below are my Hollywood Derby selections:
1. Program Trading
2. Webslinger
3. Redistricting
4. Seal Team
Chad Brown trains both Program Trading and Redistricting. Brown has won the Hollywood Derby in three of the last seven years (Annals of Time in 2016, Raging Bull in 2018 and Domestic Spending in 2020).
Program Trading has won three of four lifetime starts. His lone defeat came in his most recent appearance under silks when he finished second as a 3-5 favorite to Integration in the Grade III Virginia Derby at Colonial Downs on Sept. 9.
Prior to Program Trading’s loss in the Virginia Derby, the Great Britain-bred Lope de Vega ridgling won the Grade I Saratoga Derby at 1 3/16 miles on the turf Aug. 5.
Even though Program Trading failed to win the Virginia Derby as such a heavy favorite, his loss is mitigated by the fact the victorious Integration is so highly regarded.
After the Virginia Derby, Integration won Aqueduct’s Grade II Hill Prince by five lengths on Nov. 18 to remain undefeated in three career starts. Many see Integration, who is trained by Hall of Famer Shug McGaughey, as possibly being one of the top grass runners in the U.S. next year, much like 4-year-old Up the Mark in 2023. A three-time Grade I winner this year, Up to the Mark also finished a respectable second to European star Auguste Rodin in the BC Turf.
Not only did Integration win his next start after the Virginia Derby, so too did Virginia Derby third Runaway Storm. Following the Virginia Derby, Runaway Storm by pulled off a 20-1 upset in Keeneland’s Grade III Bryan Station Stakes on Oct. 28.
Redistricting obviously is highly regarded by the manner in which he has been managed. Following a 4 3/4-length maiden win when unveiled in a 1 1/16-mile maiden race on the grass June 3 at Belmont Park, he was hiked way up in class and stretched out to 1 1/4 miles in the Grade I Belmont Derby on the turf July 8. The Great Britain-bred Kingman gelding ran seventh in the Belmont Derby, but then rebounded to win a 1 1/16-mile allowance contest on the grass Oct. 28 at Aqueduct.
Seal Team, a Great Britain-bred War Front colt trained by Hall of Famer Richard Mandella, won Santa Anita’s Grade II Twilight Derby on the turf Nov. 4 at odds of 7-1. It was his third win from five career starts.
Mandella won the 2002 Hollywood Derby with Johar.
Five other Hollywood Derby entrants exit the Twilight Derby. They are Silver Knott (who finished second to Seal Team), Webslinger (third), Reiquist (fourth), Watsonville (sixth) and Maltese Falcon (11th).
Webslinger was flying late in the Twilight Derby as the 5-2 favorite. He is trained by Mark Casse, a member of the Hall of Fame in the U.S. and Canada. A Kentucky-bred Constitution colt, Webslinger finished fourth in the Belmont Derby and a close second in the Saratoga Derby.
FIERCENESS GETS RESPECT IN DERBY FUTURE WAGER
Fierceness, winner of the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and the likely Eclipse Award-winning 2-year-old male of 2023, was the 8-1 individual favorite in Pool 2 of Churchill Downs’ Kentucky Derby Future Wager (KDFW) that closed last Sunday (Nov. 26).
Forte, victorious in the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last year who was voted a 2022 Eclipse Award as champion 2-year-old male, was the 10-1 individual favorite in KDFW Pool 2 a year ago.
After winning the Grade II Fountain of Youth Stakes and Grade I Florida Derby, Forte did get entered in the Kentucky Derby. However, he didn’t make it into the starting gate. Forte was scratched the morning of the race due to a bruised right front foot.
Forte was installed as the 5-2 morning-line favorite after entries were drawn for the Kentucky Derby. Those who took the 10-1 price on him in KDFW Pool were feeling good in terms of getting value. However, the “value” went down the drain when Forte was scratched.
There are no refunds in the Kentucky Derby Future Wager or Kentucky Derby Sire Future Wager. Thus, when Forte was scratched on race day, horseplayers who bet him at 10-1 in KDFW Pool did not get their money back.
What happened with Forte vis-a-vis the Run for the Roses is an example of why it’s my opinion that playing Fierceness at 8-1 in KDFW Pool 2 on Nov. 26 for a race that won’t be run until May 4 is not a good idea.
Nash was the only one of the 38 individual horses who I was interested in betting in Pool 2. Not only did I monitor his price in Pool 2, I kept a close eye on the odds for his sire, Medaglia d’Oro, just in case Medaglia d’Oro ended up being a better price than Nash.
Just 20 minutes before the deadline, Nash was 18-1, while Medaglia d’Oro was 24-1. So I bet $200 on Medaglia d’Oro instead of Nash.
These days I’ve too frequently been a victim of significant late odds drop for a horse I have bet on. Well, now this even happened to me in a future wager. In the final 20 minutes of the Kentucky Derby Sire Future Wager, Medaglia d’Oro’s odds dropped from 24-1 to 22-1, then to 20-1, then to 19-1, then finally to 18-1. I liked my bet a whole lot more at 24-1 than 18-1.
If Nash wins the roses, a $200 bet on him will return $3,800.00. My $200 wager on Medaglia d’Oro, if successful, will pay $3,830.00. Yes, my shrewd strategy to bet Medaglia d’Oro instead of Nash will result in making a whole $30 more. Wow! If Medaglia d’Oro had stayed at the 24-1 price he was at the time that I bet him, a successful $200 wager would have returned about $4,800.00 instead of $3,830.00. In other words, the odds drop will cost me about $1,000.
Horseracingnation.com’s Ron Flatter this week listed future Kentucky Derby odds in Las Vegas at Caesars Sportsbook. Fierceness is the 15-1 favorite. Undefeated Nysos, dazzling winner of Del Mar’s Bob Hope Stakes, is 20-1. Locked, winner of the Grade I Breeders’ Futurity and third as the favorite in the BC Juvenile, is next at 30-1. Everyone else is 40-1 or higher. Nash is 75-1. I plan to take a trip to Las Vegas after the Del Mar meet ends and certainly will be visiting the Caesars Sportsbook to probably make a future wager on Nash at hopefully around 75-1.
As I’ve previously written for Xpressbet.com, I made a substantial wager on the “all other 3-year-old colts and geldings from the 2021 foal crop” option in Pool 1. It closed at slightly under even money ($3.90 for a $2 wager).
I had expected the “all other colts and geldings option” in Pool 2 to be no better than 4-5 and possibly 3-5 or lower. As the deadline approached, much to my surprise, this option was 6-5. I bet it and hoped the odds would not drop. In this case, the price held. The “all other colts and geldings” option closed as the 6-5 favorite ($4.54 for a $2 wager).
One of the reasons I aggressively bet “all other colts and geldings” in Pool 1 and Pool 2 is I can always hedge on race day by possibly playing any of the few individual horses to make it into the starting gate for the 150th running of the Kentucky Derby on the first Saturday in May.
Another reason I played “all other colts and geldings” in Pool 1 and Pool 2 is horses trained by Hall of Famer Bob Baffert are not among the individual horses in KDFW Pool 1 or Pool 2. That’s because last July 3, Churchill Downs Incorporated announced it was “extending the suspension of Bob Baffert through calendar year 2024 based on continued concerns regarding the threat to the safety and integrity he poses to CDI-owned racetracks.” Baffert’s ban from racing horses at CDI-owned tracks stems from the 2021 Kentucky Derby in which the Baffert-trained Medina Spirit finished first but tested positive for the presence of betamethasone, a medication that is legal to use, but not on race day.
With Baffert trainees not included among the 38 individual horses in KDFW Pool 1 or Pool 2, it does add a number of quality runners to the “all other 3-year-old colts and geldings” option, such as Breeders’ Cup Juvenile runner-up Muth and the aforementioned Nysos. As someone who made a substantial wager on the “all other 3-year-old colts and geldings” option in Pool 1 and Pool 2, I’m certainly glad this option includes Muth and Nysos.
Also included among the 38 individual horses in KDFW Pool 1 and Pool 2 is Honor Marie, who won Churchill’s Grade II Kentucky Jockey Club by two lengths at 8-1. Trained by Whit Beckman, the Kentucky-bred Honor Code colt has won two of three career starts. Honor Marie is two for two when racing on a fast track.
Churchill Downs inaugurated the Kentucky Derby Future Wager in 1999. The remaining KDFW dates for the 2024 renewal of the 1 1/4-mile classic are Jan. 19-21 (Pool 3), Feb. 16-18 (Pool 4), March 15-17 (Pool 5) and April 4-6 (Pool 6).
Below are the final odds reported by Churchill Downs for Pool 2 of the 2024 KDFW:
6-5 All Other Colts and Geldings from the 2021 Foal Crop
8-1 Fierceness
14-1 Locked
18-1 Nash
19-1 Dornoch
19-1 Knightsbridge
27-1 Timberlake
35-1 Parchment Party
36-1 Sierra Leone
43-1 Bentornato
46-1 Liberal Arts
48-1 Where’s Chris
49-1 Carbone
50-1 The Wine Steward
52-1 Catching Freedom
53-1 Booth
53-1 Awesome Road
59-1 Stretch Ride
64-1 All Fillies from the 2021 Foal Crop
65-1 Risk It
77-1 Bergen
87-1 Moonlight
92-1 Kitty Hawk
92-1 Otto the Conqueror
93-1 Nutella Fella
103-1 Copper Tax
105-1 Mystik Dan
113-1 Domestic Product
122-1 Real Men Violin
124-1 Lightline
135-1 West Saratoga
137-1 Billal
139-1 Drum Roll Please
145-1 Stolen Magic
146-1 Glengarry
154-1 Merit
155-1 Dancing Groom
169-1 Private Desire
172-1 Informed Patriot
182-1 Stronghold
Below are the final odds reported by Churchill Downs for the 2024 Kentucky Derby Future Sire Wager:
7-2 All Other Sires
11-1 Gun Runner
11-1 Nyquist
12-1 City of Light
15-1 Justify
18-1 Medaglia d’Oro
18-1 Into Mischief
19-1 Good Magic
23-1 Constitution
23-1 Curlin
24-1 Quality Road
31-1 Street Sense
32-1 Arrogate
34-1 American Pharoah
34-1 Vino Rosso
36-1 Mitole
39-1 Tapit
45-1 Uncle Mo
58-1 Candy Ride
64-1 Not This Time
64-1 Practical Joke
66-1 Liam’s Map
68-1 Omaha Beach
74-1 Audible
75-1 Hard Spun
80-1 Bolt d’Oro
83-1 Munnings
85-1 Ghostzapper
89-1 Maximus Mischief
91-1 Bernardini
111-1 Classic Empire
118-1 Runhappy
123-1 War Front
124-1 Flameaway
127-1 Cairo Prince
127-1 Malibu Moon
128-1 Violence
134-1 Speightstown
139-1 More Than Ready
154-1 Union Rags
EQUINOX STORMS HOME TO JAPAN CUP VICTORY
As I watched the white blaze of Equinox bound home to an emphatic victory in the Group I, $7.22 million Japan Cup last Sunday (Nov. 26),, I couldn’t help thinking, “How in the world did this horse ever lose a race, let alone two?”
After Equinox won his first two starts, he finished second twice, including a neck defeat to Do Duece in the Group I Japanese Derby of 2022.
Since the Japanese Derby, Equinox has been unbeatable. He’s reeled off six consecutive Group I wins and now is widely acknowledged to be the finest racehorse on the planet.
America’s Flightline was the toast of Thoroughbred racing last year. His stellar, albeit abbreviated, 2022 campaign produced victories in the Grade I Met Mile, Grade I Pacific Classic and Grade I BC Classic.
Flightline overcame early adversity to win the Met Mile by six lengths. His 19 1/4-length Pacific Classic tour de force was considered by many to be Secretariat-like. His 8 1/4-length BC Classic triumph broke the record for the largest winning margin in the race’s history.
After the BC Classic, Flightline was retired to stud, gloriously undefeated in six career starts.
I think it’s fair to say Flightline was the Horse of the World in 2022 and Equinox is the Horse of the World in 2023.
Group I Saudi Cup winner Panthalassa opened a huge lead during the Japan Cup estimated to be anywhere from 15 to 20 lengths, while Equinox was racing along in third. Panthalassa faltered badly in the late stages and finished 12th in the field of 18.
Surging to the front with a little more than a furlong to go, Equinox drew away to win by four lengths while not under urging late as a throng of 85,866 fans on hand roared. Finishing second was the talented 3-year-old filly Liberty Island, followed by Stars on Earth in third. Liberty Island went into the Japan Cup with a four-race winning streak at the Group I level.
Equinox completed 2,400 meters (about 1 1/2 miles) in 2:21.8. Almond Eye set the course record of 2:20.6 when he captured the 2018 Japan Cup.
Owned by Silks Racing and trained by Tetsuya Kimura, Equinox once again had Christophe Lemaire aboard in the Japan Cup. Lemaire has ridden the 4-year-old colt in all 10 of his races. Equinox’s sire, Kitasan Black, won the 2016 Japan Cup in 2:25.80.
Equinox has raced exclusively in his native Japan other than his brilliant performance when he won the Group I Dubai Sheema Classic by 3 1/2 lengths last March 25. For winning the Sheema Classic and Japan Cup in the same year, Equinox earned a $3 million bonus.
Will the extraordinary Equinox continue racing after the Japan Cup or be retired to stud?
“Now that he won [the Japan Cup] with an impressive come-from-behind victory Sunday, it didn’t take long before the will-he-or-won’t-he queries were put forth,” Joe Perez wrote in a BloodHorse article. “It’s understandable; Equinox is about as successful as any Japanese racehorse in recent years and is surely going to be an in-demand option whenever he retires to stud. At the same time, there is significant interesting in continuing the 4-year-old colt’s racing career.”
Perez noted that “there’s certainly a sense the trainer would like to race” Equinox more, adding Kimura “also is careful to not step on the toes of his employer, so he’s quick to point out it’s not his decision.”
GALLOPING AMI PRODUCES ANOTHER DEBUT WINNER
In the first race at Del Mar last Sunday (Nov. 26), I made Kopion a 6-5 morning-line favorite. I made the first-time starter that strong of a favorite based largely on her dam’s outstanding record of throwing debut winners.
It turned out 6-5 wasn’t nearly low enough. Kopion was hammered down to 3-10 favoritism and won for fun. After breaking in front, the 2-year-old Omaha Beach filly sat comfortably in fourth, took the lead at the head of the stretch and cruised home to a 3 3/4-length victory. The $270,000 auction purchase recorded an 83 Beyer Speed Figure.
Richard Mandella trains Kopion. Mandella also conditioned the filly’s multiple Grade I-winning sire.
Kopion’s dam is Galloping Ami, a daughter of Victory Gallop. Probably best remembered for his narrow win in the 1998 Belmont Stakes to thwart Real Quiet’s bid to sweep the Triple Crown, Victory Gallop was voted a 1999 Eclipse Award as champion older male.
Galloping Ami, remarkably, has produced seven debut winners from her nine foals to race. The seven are Tap for Ami, Aragorn Ami, Ami’s Flatter, Amis Gizmo, Golden Ami, Galloping d’Oro and now Kopian.
Aragorn Ami won the Martha Washington Stakes at Oaklawn Park in 2014.
Ami’s Flatter won the Grade III Commonwealth Stakes at Keeneland in 2016.
Amis Gizmo was a multiple stakes winner and finished second in the prestigious Queen’s Plate at Woodbine in 2016.
In light of Kopian’s stylish maiden score, it’s not hard to envision a stakes win and/or graded stakes victory in her future.
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