$1 MILLION JUVENILE TURF SPRINT (FRIDAY)
(Note: Official Morning-Line Odds were authored by yours truly before the draw for post positions and before significant defections such as Geaux Rocket Ride in the Classic and Practical Move in the Dirt Mile, which would have resulted in quite different ML odds in those fields sans horses like that.)
1. BIG EVS (3-1 on the morning line)
This 2yo was only 5-1 vs. top older Euros
2. NO NAY METS (4-1)
Speedster is 3 for 3 in the United States
3. CRIMSON ADVOCATE (4-1)
Nose win June 21 at Royal Ascot last out
Nice-price danger: AMIDST WAVES (8-1)
Filly flies late in race with fast pace?
$2 MILLION JUVENILE FILLIES (FRIDAY)
1. TAMARA (4-5)
Looks like a special filly (as was her mom)
2. CANDIED (4-1)
Looms main threat to expected heavy favorite
3. CHATALAS (8-1)
Glatt sky high on filly who was 3-1 vs. Tamara
Nice-price danger: BRIGHTWORK (12-1)
What is she just had an off day in Alcibiades?
Note: Tamara is my choice as the “most probable winner” at this year’s Breeders’ Cup. My most probable Breeders’ Cup winner has won in 14 of the 19 last years.
Flightline was an easy choice as my most probable winner at last year’s Breeders’ Cup. Nick Tammaro installed Flightline as a 3-5 morning-line favorite in the Classic. As I wrote for Xpressbet before the race, I would have made Flightline a shorter price at 2-5.
“I think Flightline has an excellent chance to break Easy Goer’s record for lowest odds by a BC Classic favorite,” I wrote. “Easy Goer holds the record. He was 1-2 when he finished second to 2-1 Sunday Silence in the 1989 Classic at Gulfstream Park.”
Flightline was indeed 2-5 on the board, paying $2.88 for each $2 win wager. The fabulous colt made that look like an overlay. He won by 8 1/2 lengths. That broke the record for the biggest winning margin in the history of the Classic, which was first run in 1984. The previous record of 6 1/2 lengths had been set by pick-six-scandal-exposer Volponi in 2002 and matched by Triple Crown winner American Pharoah in 2015.
Matt Dinerman recently posted on social media that if Flightline were in this year’s Classic, “he would win by 37 lengths.” You know what? I’m not going to say that’s a crazy statement.
What will Tamara’s odds be when she exits the starting gate in Friday’s Juvenile Fillies? I don’t look for her to be as low the 2-5 that Flightline was in last year’s Classic. As noted above, I did make Tamara an odds-on favorite on the morning line at 4-5. That is the lowest morning-line price in the 14 Breeders’ Cup race.
Interestingly, David Aragona made Tamara an even shorter price on his Daily Racing Form line for the Juvenile Fillies. Aragona, who is an excellent morning-line oddsmaker, put Tamara’s DRF odds at 3-5.
Tamara is a daughter of Bolt d’Oro and the great Beholder. Bolt d’Oro was a multiple Grade I winner. Beholder was a multiple Breeders’ Cup winner and multiple Eclipse Award winner.
If Tamara proves a punctual favorite Friday, she will follow in her dam’s footsteps. Beholder won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies in 2012, then also took the Breeders’ Cup Distaff in 2013 and 2014.
Beholder was the Eclipse Award-winning champion 2-year-old filly of 2012 and champion 3-year-old filly of 2013. She later won two more Eclipse Awards as champion older dirt female in 2015 and 2016. Beholder was inducted into the Hall of Fame last year.
As for Tamara in this year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, there are sharp local clockers who have stated that they have not been all that impressed with how she has trained up to the race. I will admit that does concern me a bit in terms of making her my most probable winner at this year’s Breeders’ Cup.
But my thinking is: “In Mandella I trust.”
In my opinion, Richard Mandella is one of the greatest trainers of all time. Think of what the Hall of Famer accomplished at the 2003 Breeders’ Cup at Santa Anita, winning four Breeders’ Cup races when there were only eight in one day back then.
Let me also say this: “In Mike Smith I trust.” They don’t call him “Big Money” Mike Smith for nothing. I consider him to be one of the greatest jockeys of all time, especially in major races, like those at the Breeders’ Cup. In fact, Smith has 27 Breeders’ Cup victories to his credit, which is the record for a jockey. The closest to him is John Velaquez, who has won 19 Breeders’ Cup races.
Smith has raved about Tamara. The Hall of Fame rider is not one to hand out superlatives very often. When he speaks so glowingly of Tamara, it means a lot to me coming from someone who has ridden such outstanding female equine athletes as Azeri, Inside Information, Royal Delta, Sky Beauty, Songbird and the legendary Zenyatta.
I was a huge Inside Information fan. She still holds the record for the largest margin of victory in the history of the Breeders’ Cup. Inside Information, who won 14 of 17 career starts, was 13 1/2 lengths in front at the end of the 1995 Breeders’ Cup Distaff, a performance for which she received a 119 Beyer Speed Figure. Cigar recorded a 117 Beyer when he won that year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic.
I honestly believe that Inside Information is one of the all-time great female Thoroughbreds, yet for some reason she’s hardly ever talked about.
Will Tamara come through for me Friday as my most probable Breeders’ Cup winner for 2023? We shall see.
Below is a list of my most probable Breeders’ Cup winner for each year going back to 2004:
2022 Flightline in the Classic (won)
2021 Gamine in the Filly & Mare Sprint (finished third)
2020 Golden Pal in the Juvenile Turf Sprint (won)
2019 Midnight Bisou (finished second)
2018 Newspaperofrecord in the Juvenile Fillies Turf (won)
2017 Bolt d’Oro in the Juvenile (finished third)
2016 Dortmund in the Dirt Mile (finished fourth)
2015 Songbird in the Juvenile Fillies (won)
2014 Goldencents in the Dirt Mile (won)
2013 Wise Dan in the Mile (won)
2012 Groupie Doll in the Filly & Mare Sprint (won)
2011 Goldikova in the Mile (won)
2010 Goldikova in the Mile (won)
2009 Zenyatta in the Classic (won)
2008 Zenyatta in the Ladies’ Classic (won)
2007 Midnight Lute in the Sprint (won)
2006 Ouija Board in the Filly & Mare Turf (won)
2005 Ouija Board in the Filly & Mare Turf (finished second)
2004 Ouija Board in the Filly & Mare Turf (won)
$1 MILLION JUVENILE FILLIES TURF (FRIDAY)
1. SHE FEELS PRETTY (4-1)
Looked super winning G1 Natalma at Woodbine
2. PORTA FORTUNA (5-1)
Talented youngster comes off G1 victory in England
3. BUCHU (6-1)
Improving Justify filly stormed to G2 win at Keeneland
Nice-price danger: LES PAVOTS (8-1)
DRF line has her at 30-1; 3rd vs. brilliant Opera Singer
$2 MILLION JUVENILE (FRIDAY)
1. LOCKED (7-2)
Terrific maiden win followed by a G1 triumph
2. MUTH (4-1)
Rated kindly in G1 American Pharoah victory
3. TIMBERLAKE (4-1)
Looked like serious colt in Champagne score
Nice-price danger: FIERCENESS (6-1)
Toss last race? A juicy 15-1 on DRF line
$1 MILLION JUVENILE TURF (FRIDAY)
1. RIVER TIBER (3-1)
Ryan Moore opts for him over Unquestionable
2. UNQUESTIONABLE (4-1)
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has potent 1-2 punch
3. ENDLESSLY (5-1)
Could have big say off G3 win on SA grass
Nice-price danger: MY BOY PRINCE (8-1)
Casse has high opinion of him, look out
$1 MILLION DIRT MILE (SATURDAY)
1. CODY’S WISH (5-2)
Popular horse is 7 for 7 in races at one mile
2. CHARGE IT (5-1)
Contender likely shorter than 5-1 due to scratches
3. ZOZOS (6-1)
Wires them? Now also likely lower than 6-1
Nice-price danger: STAGE RAIDER (15-1)
Half-brother to Triple Crown winner Justify
$2 MILLION FILLY & MARE TURF (SATURDAY)
1. INSPIRAL (5-2)
Extremely talented Euro + Gosden + Dettori = victory?
2. WARM HEART (3-1)
Another from Europe who warrants much respect
3. IN ITALIAN (4-1)
Likely pacesetter stretches out, this trip a concern
Nice-price danger: DIDIA (8-1)
Can see her proving a tough customer at nice price
$1 MILLION FILLY & MARE SPRINT (SATURDAY)
1. GOODNIGHT OLIVE (6-5)
Won this race last year, doesn’t have to face Echo Zulu
2. SOCIETY (5-2)
Fast, but was no match for ’Olive going 7f in April
3. KIRSTENBOSCH (10-1)
Recent G3 winner at SA comes running late?
Nice-price danger: MEIKEI YELL (15-1)
Japanese mare has been facing males at G1 level
$2 MILLION MILE (SATURDAY)
1. SONGLINE (5-2)
Really like marvelous mare from Japan a lot
2. MASTER OF THE SEAS (7-2)
Quality gelding wins despite outside post?
3. MAWJ (4-1)
Beat classy Tahiyra in G1 English race in May
Nice-price danger: MORE THAN LOOKS (15-1)
If I had a “do over” I’d make him lower than 15-1
$2 MILLION DISTAFF (SATURDAY)
1. CLAIRIERE (4-1)
Pace battle sets it up for her? DRF has her at 8-1
2. IDIOMATIC (5-2)
May feel like idiot trying to beat deserving chalk
3. SEARCH RESULTS (5-1)
Won’t be surprised if she makes presence felt
Nice-price danger: WET PAINT (10-1)
Comes on in lane to get into superfecta?
$4 MILLION TURF (SATURDAY)
1. MOSTAHDAF (5-2)
Son of mighty Frankel has splendid Euro resume
2. AUGUSTE RODIN (3-1)
Also major Euro invader, won G1 Epsom Derby
3. KING OF STEEL (4-1)
Won G1 race on soft turf at Ascot fortnight ago
Nice-price danger: ONESTO (8-1)
Edged for 2nd in Arc won by undefeated hotshot
$6 MILLION CLASSIC (SATURDAY)
1. WHITE ABARRIO (4-1) *PICTURED ABOVE*
Similar effort to 110 Whitney fig good enough?
2. USHBA TESORO (4-1)
Dubai World Cup hero is 7 for 8 in dirt races
3. ARABIAN KNIGHT (3-1)
Pac Classic winner sports sharp drills for Baffert
Nice-price danger: PROXY (12-1)
Narrowly lost Santa Anita Handicap in March
$1 MILLION TURF SPRINT (SATURDAY)
1. LIVE IN THE DREAM (9-2)
Set torrid pace when 4th at Keeneland, now 5f
2. CARAVEL (5-1)
Last 2 losses due to less-than-firm ground?
3. MOTORIOUS (5-1)
4-1 favorite on DRF line can really motor late
Nice-price danger: ROSES FOR DEBRA (12-1)
Interesting off her NY record in grass dashes
$2 MILLION SPRINT (SATURDAY)
1. SPEED BOAT BEACH (3-1)
Might prove to be the speed of the speed
2. ELITE POWER (9-5)
Well-named champion won this race in 2022
3. GUNITE (4-1)
Multiple G1 winner has credentials to win this
Nice-price danger: HOIST THE GOLD (12-1)
Won Keeneland’s Phoenix with 101 Beyer
.svg){kind=logo}
