An enormous day is upon us this Sunday at Sha Tin! FWD Champions Day comes with three Group 1’s in the World Pool, promising for some massive pools and top-tier racing. If you’re looking for a root, Hong Kong legend Ka Ying Rising is seeking his thirteenth win in fifteen starts in the Chairman’s Sprint (G1) and is a must-watch.
Rather than a pair of spot plays, I’m going to try to equip you with some resources to help you find bet-worthy races across the card. Using my power ratings, I’m looking for most likely winners, potential price plays, and keys for your exotic tickets.
Helpful Resources
Sha Tin – April 27
Past Performances
Speed Pro Pace Projections
Methodology
Power ratings are calculated by a mix of runner performance versus historical average, quality of the field in each race, weight-based handicaps, and lengths beaten or won. This is how I value past performance of each horse, and it helps me isolate horses worth handicapping further. Then I turn to classic pen-and-paper handicapping to see if there are any plays worth making.
Most Likely Winners
These are the runners that top the Power Rating charts by sizeable margins. While short prices are expected, keying these runners with big prices is still a viable way to walk away a big winner. Exactas paying 25/1 or better aren’t uncommon even with clear choices on top. I may be pointing out some chalk here, but use them wisely and you’ll be glad you did!
R3 | Class 4 | 1400M (7 Furlongs) | #1 SUPER EXPRESS – 106.43 Power Rating (PR)
Notes: One race, one win, rates ten points higher than competition; should benefit from moderate pace with one of the world’s top jockeys aboard in James McDonald
R5 | Chairman’s Sprint (G1) | 1200M (6 Furlongs) | #1 KA YING RISING – 121.72 PR
Notes: Local legend with a record of 14-12-2-0 in Hong Kong; this is the performance to watch on Sunday with this runner nine points better than this Group 1 field
R7 | FWD Champions Mile (G1) | 1600M (1 Mile) | #2 VOYAGE BUBBLE – 119.43 PR
Notes: Gold Cup (G1) Champion seeking fourth G1 and fifth group stakes win in a row; rates eight full points ahead of next best
Potential Price Plays
As the name suggests, these are horses worth sprinkling a little bankroll on to shock the field. Hong Kong is a racing circuit with a lot of variance, which can be difficult to predict but can be very beneficial to your wallet. Take a couple shots and let’s hope at least one sticks.
R1 | Class 4 | 1800M (1 1/8 Miles) | #5 VOLCANIC SPARK (11/1 ML) – 99.21 PR
Notes: Rates top of this Class 4 group but has been 0-for-8 in this campaign; finishing just short but seems to perform best at this distance and gets great mount
R8 | FWD QEII CUP (G1) | 2000M (1 1/14 Miles) | #8 MOMENTS IN TIME (43/1 ML) – 114.09 PR
Notes: Chilean gelding by LOOKIN AT LUCKY could be the “local” surprise; will need to run the race of his life, but has been in very good form and rates highest of the local entries
R9 | Class 3 | 1600M (1 Mile) | #5 WINNING GOLD (22/1 ML) – 104.07 PR
Notes: Rates third best of the field in the power ratings, but does so by less than a point; returns to distance after two tough trips and should be game to hit the board
R10 | Class 3 | 1400M (7 Furlongs) | #1 CHARMING LEGEND (22/1 ML) – 104.54 PR
Notes: J-Mac back on board over the “A” course at Sha Tin where this horse has been at his best; playing horse for course with best rating in the field and a great rider in the irons
Keys For Exotics
I will preface this by saying price plays and most-likely winners are by default in this category as well. Price plays for the, well, price, and likely winners because you still have to hit the board to cash a ticket. However, there are some other highly rated runners that should be on Quinella, Exacta, and Trifecta tickets. If you play Omnis, Trios, or even Double Trios, keep these in consideration as well.
R2 | Class 4 | 1200M (6 Furlongs)
#2 PARTERRE (17/2 ML)
R3 | Class 4 | 1400M (7 Furlongs)
#2 SUPER LOVE (8/1 ML)
#4 FORERUNNER (22/1 ML)
R4 | Class 2 | 1400M (7 Furlongs)
#1 TAJ DRAGON (13/1 ML)
#9 SWIFT ASCEND (26/1 ML)
R5 | Chairman’s Sprint (G1) | 1200M (6 Furlongs)
#2 SATONO REVE (8/1 ML)
#3 LUCKY SWEYNESSE (21/1 ML)
#6 HELIOS EXPRESS (17/1 ML)
#9 LUCKY WITH YOU (21/1 ML)
R10 | Class 3 | 1400M (7 Furlongs)
#2 SILO (35/1 ML)
The Past Performances are free, the racing is packed with international championship talent, the pools are going to be massive, and now you’ve got a head start on your handicapping. You can put your bets in before bed on Xpressbet or 1/ST BET and wake up to a fresh bankroll for your Sunday racing. We’re just a week from the Kentucky Derby and there won’t be a better shot at a big score before the first Saturday in May. With no reason not to play, get involved and good luck!
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