Across Victoria Bay from Hong Kong’s bustling city lights, Happy Valley Racecourse sits nestled across from three cemeteries. What you hopefully won’t find anywhere nearby is a graveyard for your losing tickets after the early morning card gets underway.
The mid-week Happy Valley card isn’t the strongest in quality, but what it lacks in prestige it counters with twelve-horse fields across the day and huge pools for you to take your share of. Let’s dig into some spot plays and see what value we can find!
Helpful Resources
Breaking into a new racing circuit can be a challenge, but the Hong Kong Jockey Club sits at the middle of this poker table dealing free past performances, pace projections, and ample resources for players new to the scene. Download the program and check out their detailed explanation of how to read their past performances.
Here are some helpful links to get started:
Happy Valley – April 9
Past Performances
Speed Pro Pace Projections
Methodology
The method I use for making picks is a combination of homegrown speed figures and classic pen-and-paper handicapping. Since the Hong Kong program doesn’t feature things like Beyer Speed Figures or Brisnet’s Prime Power, I opted to create some figures of my own after consulting with colleagues and being schooled on how they’re made. I use classic factors like running time and lengths beaten, adjust for class and specific race pace, and weight a horse’s willingness to go by and win races. Once I have an idea of which runners I should focus on, it’s on to the program to look for winners.
Stats and figures are from my own research, so please use them with discretion.
Race 2 | King’s Park Handicap | 1200 Meters (6 Furlongs) | Class 4
Top Pick: #4 LOVEISINTHEAIR (7/1 ML)
We open up our plays in this six-furlong sprint over Happy Valley’s “A” course, where three-year-old gelding LOVEISINTHEAIR looks to break through in his third start for trainer John Size. The son of American sire STREET BOSS is projected to finish just ahead of morning line favorite NORTHERN FIRE BALL according to my model of the race, but dawns a significantly more attractive morning line price than NORTHERN FIRE BALL’s 9/5. Under the guidance of Hugh Bowman, who rode Winx from 2014 to her retirement and has over 100 Group 1 wins on his resume, LOVEISINTHEAIR will have to settle off the pace and navigate some traffic but looks more than capable.
My numbers have this as a tight race, so we’re going to play the price to find the wire first and play LOVEISINTHEAIR with two other prices for a small exacta with a potentially huge payout. Keep an eye on the live odds if you’re up early enough to catch the pools opening, Hong Kong is certainly a circuit where the morning line isn’t nearly as accurate as the market. With that said, sometimes your value can be zapped and I highly recommend using conditional wagering on Xpressbet if you’re like me and going to be snoozing through the first few races.
Betting Strategy
At 4/1 or higher: Win - #4 LOVEISINTHEAIR
Exacta Key Box: 4 w/ 1,11
Race 3 | Wiley Handicap | 1800 Meters (1 1/8 Miles) | Class 4
Top Pick: #3 CAN’T GO WONG (12/1 ML)
Morning line favorite #9 YODA’S CHOICE (2/1 ML) appears to be a deserving favorite, but tailing obvious favorites is no way to make any money betting on horses. For that reason, I’m looking to the third choice in my power ratings with some potential value. #3 CAN’T GO WONG has been in the mix in his last four starts, with his last two trips resulting in traffic cutting off his ability to rally. Routes at Happy Valley definitely favor closers, and our top choice has some of the best mid-to-late race pace of this field.
The top three horses my model projects are all 11/2 or shorter, and all have a legitimate chance at pulling the rug out from our selection, but not by enough of a margin for me to be sold on any as a can’t-miss kind of horse. If I were playing horizontals, I’d likely spread in this race and cover my bases, but with no big horizontals available to US-based players I’m looking for an upset to pad my bankroll.
Betting Strategy
At 10/1 or higher: Win/Place - #3 CAN’T GO WONG
Between 4/1 and 10/1: Win - #3 CAN’T GO WONG
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