The appetizer for Saturday’s FWD Champions Day comes to us hot and ready at Happy Valley this Wednesday. Night racing in Hong Kong, morning racing for us in the Home of the Brave, but wherever you’re betting from we’ve got a few spot plays to get you through the card.
Helpful Resources
Happy Valley – April 23
Past Performances
Speed Pro Pace Projections
Methodology
Power ratings are calculated by a mix of runner performance versus historical average, quality of the field in each race, weight-based handicaps, and lengths beaten or won. This is how I value past performance of each horse, and it helps me isolate horses worth handicapping further. Then I turn to classic pen-and-paper handicapping to see if there are any plays worth making.
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Race 3 | 1200 Meters (6 Furlongs) | Class 4 | Turf
Key: #1 FORTUNE WHISKEY (17/2 ML)
The third race on this early-morning card gives us a good chance at a big splash in both the Exacta and Win pools. After taking over a month off, FORTUNE WHISKEY is back on Happy Valley’s “C” turf course for a six-furlong bout over two turns. He rates the highest of this group in my power ratings by almost a full three points, and is more than capable of continuing his successful four-year-old campaign. At 17/2 on the morning line, he’s a good play right out of the gate based on numbers, but a few others with appealing prices look worth keeping on a ticket.
The next three highest-rated runners are #2 PRIME MORTAR, #3 SWAGGER BRO and #9 GROOVY FEELING with morning lines of 13/1, 22/1 and 22/1 respectively. SWAGGER BRO picks up Hong Kong’s top rider in Zac Purton after a pair of unsuccessful tries dropping to Class 4. PRIME MORTAR has been just short of a win in three of his last five tries. GROOVY FEELING is only three runs into his Hong Kong career and could be the big unknown in the field.
Knowing we could see a big run from any of these pricier plays, let’s key our top pick in an exacta and bake in some reassurance by boxing the other three. Massive exacta payouts are not uncommon in Hong Kong, even with short-priced favorites keyed on top, so if we hit you could be set up for the rest of the card or even your whole Sunday.
Betting Strategy
Win - #1 FORTUNE WHISKEY
Exacta Key Box – 1 w/ 2,3,9
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Race 5 | 1200 Meters (6 Furlongs) | Class 4 | Turf
Key: #7 RISING PHOENIX (22/1 ML)
This morning line feels like either a mistake or a woeful underestimation of a good-looking runner coming back for his second start. RISING PHOENIX debuted at Sha Tin going just five furlongs, and after a bumpy start came just one and a quarter lengths short of winning on debut at off odds of 99/1. This three-year-old gelding gets an extra furlong for his sophomore try and retains the services of Brenton Avdulla who is winning at a respectable 13.16% in the last 90 days.
This horse gets a cozy spot in the fourth post and should maintain a good position over these two turns. The morning line favorite is #1 JUMBO TREASURE (2/1 ML) who gate-to-wired the field in his last try at this level, but will have to clear the field from the sixth post in short order before the first ninety-degree turn. From the inside post, I’m looking for #3 FLYING WROTE to demonstrate some early speed, like he did a couple races back at Sha Tin, and make the trip hell for the likely betting favorite. I’m also not looking past #9 NEW POWER (3/1 ML) who is habitually within two lengths of winning but hasn’t found his spot yet. We’ll keep him on the ticket as a potential closer who eats up the field late.
If we can get a murky trip up front, and RISING PHOENIX breaks a bit better than he did in his first effort, the figures for our top pick have him more than capable of beating this field and getting a “1” in his win column.
Betting Strategy
Win - #7 RISING PHEONIX
Exacta – 7 w/ 1,9
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