Race 6 | Jockey Club Sprint
Top Pick: #1 KA YING RISING
Suggested Play: Exacta – 1 w/ 7,8
It’s not a sexy pick at 3/5 on the Morning Line, but KA YING RISING is truly the sprinter of this generation. Coming off a resounding win in the G1 Everest at Royal Randwick, we have almost no reason to believe KA YING RISING is in anything other than top form. This race should serve as a tune-up ahead of December 14th where he’ll look to defend his Hong Kong Sprint (G1) title. KA YING RISING will get his workout in and should romp in this field, but if we can find a standout opinion for the runner-up spot we can still make something of the race.
TOMODACHI KOKORE is certainly in good form, having rattled off three wins in a row, but more than the trips to the winner’s circle I’m looking at the final race times where he has excelled. What I’m looking for is a runner with enough pure speed who can find a way to run above his class and well above his odds. This seven-year-old is just 7/1 on the Morning Line, making him the third choice, but his final times in his most recent victories have been coming in well under a lot of his competition. In these sprints, I like to lean on a horse’s pure speed more than tactical placement. Sometimes you just get breaks to go your way and when you’re fast, you’re fast.
RAGING BLIZZARD boasts an appealing 16/1 Morning Line and has shown a cunning ability to close at both five and six furlongs. If things get hairy up front, and with a champ like KA YING RISING you never know what kind of instructions these jockeys will get to try to take him down, I like this gelding to have a fair shot at cleaning up some stragglers. He has finished within a half of a length of both FAST NETWORK and TOMODACHI KOKORE and with a tad bit of improvement in trip or speed, he’s got a good shot of clearing them both for second place.
Race 7 | Jockey Club Mile
Top Pick: #13 LIGHT YEARS CHARM
Suggested Plays: Win – 13 // Quinella – 13 w/ 1,4,5
Contrary, maybe, to the 9/10 designation on Morning Line favorite MY WISH, I think this race is pretty wide open. The field consists of a strong group who have bounced around winning and hitting the board in Group Stakes action, with MY WISH in the best form of late.
LIGHT YEARS CHARM is going to be stretching out an extra furlong in this bout, having won four of his last five races over seven furlongs each. He has only run one race at a mile where he placed third, but I think his recent performances have shown a propensity to go further. He has been more than capable of hanging onto the pace in those longer sprints and makes a surging closing run to pull through. With extra distance, I think the pace will slow down for him enough to keep him in this race all the way through, but I expect a busy group up front early duking it out for lone-pace status and eventually opening up a window for our top choice. Zac Purton is up and that bodes well for any bettor dabbling in the Hong Kong circuit.
Alongside LIGHT YEARS CHARM, I think there is a lot of potential in some big prices. RED LION has an impressive G1 win on his resume and looked sharp in his season debut even with a tough trip grinding him down. I like his chances at improving in his second try of the new year. CHANCHENG GLORY is a one-mile monster, but will have to return to a form that has faded as of late. If he can reach deep in his bag and get up for this race, he’s going to remind us why a 99/1 Morning Line is too good to leave off the ticket. Lastly, HAPPY TOGETHER is a horse that has been highly touted by the connections, and while he’s been coming up just short I do think his team is anticipating a big run this Sunday at Sha Tin. Quite frankly, even his average recent race is worthy of finishing within a half-length of the lead, making him a prime Quinella or Exacta contender.
Race 8 | Jockey Club Cup
Top Pick: #1 ROMANTIC WARRIOR *pictured*
Suggested Play: Trifecta – 3,4,6 w/ 1 w/ 3,4,6
ROMANTIC WARRIOR is already a legend in Hong Kong, and if you’ll recall, was leading Breeders’ Cup Classic Winner FOREVER YOUNG down the stretch in the Saudi Cup before losing by a less than a half-length. Prior to two second-place finishes in the Middle East, ROMANTIC WARRIOR and James McDonald were the stuff of nightmares for anyone running in Hong Kong. He’s coming back from an injury, and we should take into account that he may not look like his peak self right away, but anything close to his prime is more than enough to tackle this field. VOYAGE BUBBLE, only the second HK Triple Crown winner ever, is a clear second choice, but has shown an ability to be his own worst enemy at times.
At 3/5 on ROMANTIC WARRIOR and 9/5 on VOYAGE BUBBLE, to me the only way to play this race is to find some prices and split the trifecta. We’d have to bank on ROMANTIC WARRIOR not having his best day off the layoff, VOYAGE BUBBLE getting into some trouble out of the gate, and one of three price horses finding a way to dig deep and take advantage of the circumstances. It’s a stretch, but I can’t in good faith advise many other ways to spend your bankroll on a race with such a high chance of pennies on the dollar for payouts.
What’s the difference between this race and KA YING RISING at 3/5? Why not play a cold exacta again? Well, we know KA YING RISING is healthy and in incredible form. We’ve seen a run in Hong Kong and Australia this season and both were outright dominant. ROMANTIC WARRIOR is the classiest horse in the field, but we have introduced a couple of unknowns to the equation. With KA YING RISING, I have no doubt the race is all his to lose. With ROMANTIC WARRIOR, it’s not inconceivable to see a trip where his time off catches up with him and he needs the race ahead of the International Races on December 14th. This isn’t the destination for ROMANTIC WARRIOR, nor KA YING RISING, but one may need the tune-up and the other is finely tuned and firing.
However you decide to play them, the races at Sha Tin this Sunday are expected to be spectacular and well worth the attention of racing fans around the globe. I wish you the best of luck with all your plays, and hope everyone is gearing up for some needed time with family and friends this holiday season.
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