We’re back after a week off in Hong Kong and ready for a pair of Group Stakes races to cap off the weekend. Eleven races are on the card, the fields are full, and from the jump we have some potential prices that could pad up the bankroll. Let’s get into it!
Helpful Resources
Sha Tin – June 22
Unique Bet Types
SWINGER – Select at least two runners to finish in the top three in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combination
QUINELLA – Select the top two runners in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combination
TRIO – Select the top three runners in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combination
DOUBLE TRIO – Select the top three runners in TWO races in any order
Methodology
Power ratings are calculated by a mix of runner performance versus historical average, quality of the field in each race, weight-based handicaps, and lengths beaten or won. I’ve also added in daily adjustments for track biases to try to normalize any outlandish times and create a more level figures system.
Race 1 | 1000M | Class 4
Quinella Box – 1,3,4,5
Notes: A Class 4 five-furlong sprint opens the card on Sunday, and the Morning Line favorite is a first-time starter by a sire whose crop is only winning 9% of their sprints. #1 AURORA PATCH is making his debut for a barn winning 12% over sprint distances and gets apprentice jockey Britney Wong who has been impressive in her first Hong Kong season. #3 PERFECT GENERAL is the Prime Burke Rating favorite, and second choice on the Morning Line. #4 GRAND NOVA and #5 BOWSER are both strong contenders in good form for barns excelling in the sprint division and have more than a fair shot at hitting the wire first. With some solid prices behind us, let’s take a shot at the opening Quinella.
Race 2 | 2000M | Class 5
Win – 2 ESCAPE ROUTE
Exacta – 2 w/ 1,3
Notes: Dropping down to Class 5, 2 ESCAPE ROUTE tops the Prime Burke Ratings chart and was in impressive form before a twelve-length loss in his last start at Class 4. He gets an extra furlong, and the trainer/jockey combo of Hugh Bowman and John Size is one worth keeping an eye on. 1 HAKKA RADIANCE has been climbing back into form and is certainly capable of reaching deep for a big performance. 3 STORM RUNNER will pick up Zac Purton in his second try in Class 5 but has yet to put up consistent Prime Burke Ratings numbers and I’m not sold on Purton’s presence over-correcting that pattern. I like our top choice to win outright.
Race 3 | 1200M | Class 4
Win – 14 CIRCUIT VICTORY
Notes: Britney Wong is making her second appearance in Sunday’s forecast, and I like the apprentice at a ten-pound handicap to make a surprise in the third race. 14 CIRCUIT VICTORY seemed to find his stride a couple races back, getting to the lead and hanging on with Wong on board for his first career win. He came back in Class 4 and had a shaky start, got bumped, cut his leg, and missed over this course by just a length. Now he’s back, carrying only 107 pounds and looking like he could be alone on the lead. This son of PER INCANTO is 11/1 on the Morning Line for one of Hong Kong’s better sprint trainers. I’m in, let’s watch Britney guide this gelding to the Winner’s Circle.
Race 6 | 1400M | Group 3
Win – 1 BEAUTY ETERNAL
Exacta Box – 1 w/ 5
Notes: Backing Zac Purton in a Group Stakes race in Hong Kong is an easy sell, but this six-year-old gelding comes with a resume to put icing on the cake. Four of his last five runs have been at a mile where he has faded right around the 200M mark. Conveniently, on Sunday he gets the cut back to just 1400M where John Size has won three of six with this runner. His last run at seven furlongs was a two-length loss to international star KA YING RISING. This is a tough race with a deserving Morning Line favorite, but I can’t look past the 11/1 ML odds for BEAUTY ETERNAL. Let’s play to win and include in an Exacta.
Race 7 | 1400M | Class 4
Win – 1 COURIER ALADDIN
Quinella Box – 1,2,12
Notes: This is my “bombs away” longshot race of the day. 3 DO YOUR PART is 9/5 on the Morning Line but is 1-for-8 this year and hasn’t sold me with his Prime Burke Ratings. Instead, I like a trio of big prices to make a mess of the race. 1 COURIER ALADDIN has roared twice after winning on his debut. He picks up Britney Wong at a ten-pound handicap for trainer Manfred Kan after being ridden by Zac Purton for his first three career races. I think the connections have high hopes for this gelding, and this could be the spot to get back into the Winner’s Circle at a huge price. We’ll combine our 13/1 ML top choice with a pair of others who are looking capable, and if we’re in line to cash it will be for a sizable stack.
Race 10 | 1600M | Class 3
Win/Place – 2 JUMBO LEGEND
Notes: It’s time for my shortest analysis of the day. 2 JUMBO LEGEND is 22/1 on the Morning Line and is far and away the top choice according to the Prime Burke Ratings. Those odds, my figures, it’s a match made in gambling heaven. Let ‘er rip.
Good luck!
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