A monsoon hit the Southeastern coast of China this week, leading to the cancellation of racing at Happy Valley and an early end to the Sha Tin card last weekend. As every good horseplayer would say, those last few races at Sha Tin were the ones I was definitely going to hit so I’m especially upset with mother nature and ready to get back in action this weekend. Let’s look at the Sunday (Saturday night) card in Hong Kong and see if we can make this stacked Saturday of racing and college football even sweeter.
Helpful Resources
Sha Tin – September 28
HKJC Resource Page – Free PPs, Pace Projections, Workout Videos, Weather
Race 1 | 1200M | Class 5 (All-Weather)
Win – #7 CHEER FOR SOUTH
Longshot Flyer - #6 BRILLIANT FIRE
Quinella – 7 w/ 3,8
Grade: A
Notes: My only hesitation with this pick is CHEER FOR SOUTH hasn’t run a race yet in the new season and will be up against some stiff competition for a Class 5 bout. However, his record on the All-Weather surface is formidable. YEE CHEONG RAIDER will pick up Zac Purton as his rider and does have a strong run on a wet All-Weather surface, so we’ll include him in our Quinella play. SPEEDY SMARTIE is likely in the best form of the group and has a race under his belt in this new meet, but his All-Weather performances have produced no wins in seven tries. I’m more than happy to play against that. BRILLIANT FIRE is a bit of a hunch play at 99/1 after his season debut came up just short on the grass. This son of JUSTIFY is back on the All-Weather for his second try on the surface, and we all know JUSTIFY took plenty of liking to a muddy track at Churchill Downs in his Kentucky Derby win. If the odds are just crazy for this gelding, I’ll throw a small flyer down on him to take to the familiar surface and moisture and shock the crowd with Hugh Bowman up.
Race 4 | 1200M | Class 4 (All-Weather)
Quinella Box – 1,3,4,10
Grade: B
Notes: We’re back on the All-Weather course for this Class 4 sprint, and while I think HINOKAMI KAGURA should go off favored, I don’t think he’s a clear-cut winner especially at his 4/1 Morning Line. Instead, I think he’ll face some serious competitors with solid mounts who should be more than capable of not only joining him at the wire but possibly beating him altogether. I’ve found a few more price-sensitive options that look solid on the surface and are in good form coming into this race to combine for a boxed Quinella that I think could pay some serious dividends.
Race 6 | 1400M | Class 4
Longshot Flyer - #11 JOLLY JUMPER
Grade: C
Notes: My model points to JOLLY JUMPER at 35/1 on the Morning Line as a potential surprise on the card. He’s going to need to get a good jump on the field and show a bit more capability to close from a length or two off the pace, but he’s in a new barn and hopefully takes well to his new regimen. Play it fairly small, but let’s see if we can get a big one to go through the hoop.
Race 7 | 1200M | Class 3
Quinella – 3 w/ 2,4
Grade: B
Notes: LITTLE PARADISE is a deserving recipient of his 5/2 Morning Line picking up Zac Purton, but we’re going to look at TRIUMPHANT MORE at 99/1 to pair up with some short prices in the Quinella. This gelding went 3-for-9 last meet and has finished top two in four of his ten starts going six furlongs. He had trouble finishing races to end last season, and I’m hoping a mix of his solid times and a couple of months off have him prepared for a strong start to the new meet. He did get a tune-up race on September 7th and comes back with a cozy post position that should place him close to, or on, the lead. If his trip shakes out in his favor, I like his chances to be in the mix as the wire approaches. And at those odds, assuming they’re still relatively attractive when the tote opens, I can’t say no.
Race 8 | 1400M | Group 3
Win - #12 LIGHT YEARS CHARM
Daily Double – 12 w/ 8
Grade: A
Notes: Since getting Zac Purton back in the irons, LIGHT YEARS CHARM has rattled off two Class 2 wins in a row after a Class 3 victory. This gelding is seldomly out of the winner’s circle and gets the region’s best mount for this try in the Group Stakes ranks. He’s 7/1 on the Morning Line, but I don’t expect him to be quite that high once they head to the starting gate. With at least five runners expected to group up towards the lead, I think the race will shape up perfectly for this runner to make a strong start in his 2025-26 season. He’s going to need to manage some traffic coming from an inside post, as this runner prefers to be at least three lengths off until it’s time to close, but if anyone can manage the task it’s Purton. Let’s hope the money flows elsewhere and we can keep a decent price on our top pick.
Race 9 | 1200M | Class 2
Win - #8 HARMONY N BLESSED
Grade: A
Notes: Did someone say Zac Purton Double? It was me. I said that. Purton hops aboard this 21/1 nine-year-old gelding for his second start of the season. My numbers love this gelding’s stats for the distance, and his recent form between Class 2 and Class 3 has been very strong. His debut to the season in Class 1 didn’t quite go his way and his tough trip ended poorly, but a mix of class relief and the addition of Zac Purton combined with his on-paper stats to make him a great play at those odds. Let’s bet him to win and hope we’re still hanging on for the Daily Double!
Good luck!
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