After the rare midweek visit to Sha Tin, we’re extending our hotel reservation for another day of racing. Just to keep us on our toes, the Hong Kong Jockey Club has slated this card for Saturday if you’re local, Friday night for those of us in the United States. Who needs a routine, anyway? The numbers have been refreshed, I’ve got four races I like on the day, so let’s try to pad up that bankroll before first post in Lexington.
Helpful Resources
Sha Tin – October 4
HKJC Resource Page – Free PPs, Pace Projections, Workout Videos, Weather
Race 2 | 1400M | Class 5
Win – #3 MY FLYING ANGEL
Exacta Box – 2,3
Grade: A
Notes: On September 14 of this year, MY FLYING ANGEL lived up to his name and came flying down the stretch to take over CIRCUIT FIERY at the wire in a seven-furlong bout. Fast forward to the future and imagine your cell phone light illuminating the room in the middle of the night as you smack your imaginary rolled up program against your thigh calling home MY FLYING ANGEL for a repeat. These two are back at it, but the pace looks like it could be a bit more of a problem for CIRCUIT FIERY than it was in his last attempt with ISLAND GOLDEN and COLONEL expected to be riding hot early. MY FLYING ANGEL didn’t get a perfect trip last time out, either, and fought out of the box closing in around him with plenty of gas left to take off towards the wire. Our top choice gets a better draw in the tenth post this time, and I can’t find too many good reasons to play against another solid performance. I still think CIRCUIT FIERY is the best of the early pace setters and should pull away from the pack, but MY FLYING ANGEL will be his final-furlong workout buddy at a Morning Line of 11/1.
Race 3 | 1650M | Class 4 (All-Weather)
Quinella – 14 w/ 1,9
Grade: C+
Notes: I firmly believe PRECISION GOAL is the best horse in this field for the scenario, but I like the potential of a couple of other runners and am willing to take a small flyer on a Quinella that could feature two others. I’m going to key my Quinella around VIEW ALL THINGS who ran for his new barn for the first time in his last, a six-furlong sprint on the All-Weather course. He looked like he had more in the tank and I’m curious to see how he fares stretching out to a mile. He has been tabbed with a 16/1 Morning Line, and I think that’s fair given his recent performances and new setup, but my numbers point towards a potential step forward as he tries again on the All-Weather course. I’m going to play a small Quinella with SIGHT SUPREME and PRECISION GOAL and bank on a favorable price and potential.
Race 5 | 1200M | Class 4
Win - #2 REZEKI
Quinella Box – 1,2,3,7
Grade: B
Notes: Reasonably favored on the Morning Line in this race is LAHORE, who seems to never be more than a length out from a victory. However, there’s one race in his last five where he finished nine lengths back in six-furlong sprint. That came on June 25th where they ran him back after just seventeen days to squeeze in one more run before the end of the season. He typically gets about four weeks off between races, so that seventeen-day break was a bit of a short rest for him. LAHORE just ran on September 28th of this year, making it a whopping six days to recoup and run back. The barn has been hot, but I’m more than happy to play against their strategy here even with the most talented sprinter in the field. My numbers use a boom or bust approach to identify horses that maybe aren’t consistently running well, but have shown the potential to run a big figure. KING PROFIT is of the consistently solid variety alongside AWESOME TREASURE. I like the ceiling of REZEKI at odds of 35/1 and the potential of DECISION LINK making his second start in Hong Kong with a Morning Line of 11/1. If there’s a race that has a vulnerable favorite, I think it’s this one and I want to capitalize on that fact. I’m spread out in this race, but if any combo hits I think it could make the day.
Race 9 | 1200M | Class 3
Win - #5 JUMBO TREASURE
Quinella – 3 w/ 1,5
Grade: A
Notes: I can’t imagine a scenario that doesn’t result in BULB GENERAL repeating as a standout sprinter. He seems destined to keep climbing the class ranks and rack up wins. However, I do think he has a tough task in this one overcoming the gate-to-wire potential of JUMBO TREASURE who had an awkward start in his last outing before fighting for his usual spot on the lead. If JUMBO TREASURE gets out of the gate fine, which has never really been an issue for him, I think he will be leading this field around the turn and heading for home. On his tail should be CHATEAUNEUF who has a big run in his bag somewhere if he can find it. From far back will be the roaring BULB GENERAL, but with only six furlongs to set himself up to close it’s not a sure thing that he has the perfect trip with no traffic and a clear lane to the wire. I think the pace setup in this race benefits JUMBO TREASURE and at a Morning Line of 13/1 I think it’s more than fair to see if his second race off the break fares better. If I’m extra lucky, things will get busy for BULB GENERAL and CHATEAUNEUF will be able to hold on for second and keep his double-digit ML price.
Good luck!
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