It’s Preakness Week stateside and we’re trying to build up the day’s bankroll with some overnight action at Happy Valley in Hong Kong. First post is 6:40 am ET on Wednesday.
Hong Kong Power Ratings ROI to date: +64%
Highlights: 9/1 cold Exacta given out Saturday at Sha Tin
Helpful Resources
Happy Valley – May 14
Past Performances
Speed Pro Pace Projections
Unique Bet Types
SWINGER – Select at least two runners to finish in the top three in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combination
QUINELLA – Select the top two runners in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combination
TRIO – Select the top three runners in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combination
DOUBLE TRIO – Select the top three runners in TWO races in any order
Methodology
Power ratings are calculated by a mix of runner performance versus historical average, quality of the field in each race, weight-based handicaps, and lengths beaten or won. This is how I value past performance of each horse, and it helps me isolate horses worth handicapping further. Then I turn to classic pen-and-paper handicapping to see if there are any plays worth making.
Race 1 | 1800M | Class 5
Win - 4
Notes: Top-rated 4 – GO GO GO gets another shot at nine furlongs after a tough trip in traffic led him to a disappointing finish last time out. This five-year-old is running much better races than the form suggests, and at 15/2 on the morning line I like the price to win outright.
Race 2 | 1000M | Class 3
Exacta Key Box – 4 w/ 2,3
Notes: My numbers favor the experience of the 2 – ETERNAL FORTUNE and 3 – HEALTHY HEALTHY at morning line odds of 13/1 and 10/1 respectively. We’re playing against heavy favorite 5 – LOOKING BRIGHT who is coming to Hong Kong after breaking his maiden in Australia. 4 – SEASONS WIT has an outstanding record in these straightaway five-furlong dashes, and I’m hoping to score a big price keying him with a couple other longer shots.
Race 3 | 1650M | Class 2
Win - 1
Notes: 1 – HELENE FEELING is the fourth choice according to the morning line odds at 4/1 in this short field, but rates clearly the best at 112.47 against the next best at just 105.9 in 3 – SOLEIL FIGHTER. Let’s play to win this Class 2 bout and hope some others take the bulk of the public money.
Race 4 | 1650M | Class 4 (All-Weather)
Win – 7
Quinella Box – 7,8,12
Notes: Top choice 7 – PRECISION GOAL tops the Power Ratings and is looking to get back into form after a few unsuccessful tries in Class 4 competition. He lost his tongue tie last out, was bumped early the race before, and gets a ten-pound handicap this time around. At 13/1 on the morning line, I like his chances to light up the board. We’ll play to win and box him in a Quinella with a couple other competitive looking prices.
Race 5 | 1200M | Class 4
Win – 9
Exacta Box – 1,9
Notes: The short price, and highest in my Power Ratings, is 1 – GALAXY WITNESS with a rating of 98.58 after making his return to the turf and coming up short. In just his third start, 9 – RISING PHOENIX appears capable to be exactly that, a horse rated 97.07 on the rise after a tough trip getting a bit disrespected at 13/1 by the oddsmakers. I like his chances to win as much as I like any other, and we’ll bake in some price-favorable insurance in the Exacta in case he comes up short to a strong contender.
Race 6 | 1200M | Class 4
Win – 1
Exacta Key Box – 1 w/ 3,5,8
Notes: My Power Ratings favor this huge morning line price at 53/1. That tells me there’s certainly something being overly weighted somewhere in his past, but the price is too good not to take a shot at. Let’s put a small flyer on him to win and key him with some of the runners in better form at shorter odds.
Race 7 | 1200M | Class 4
Quinella Box – 3,4,6
Notes: This race doesn’t have a clear standout, to me, on paper. The numbers lean towards 3 – SWAGGER BRO and 6 – BEAUTY THUNDER at prices of 11/1 and 16/1 respectively on the morning line. Shortly priced 4 – GREAT SPIRIT comes in third in the Power Ratings and gets the added benefit of one of Hong Kong’s better mounts. I like some combination of prices to be in play here, and will play a Quinella to reflect that.
Race 8 | 1800M | Class 3
Exacta Box – 1,3
Notes: 1 – MONEY CATCHER hopes to be exactly that, being the only runner in this field with recent Group Stakes experience and getting back to a distance he has been marginally more comfortable with. He hasn’t had a great trip in a few runs, which is concerning to see a pattern, but at morning line odds of 21/1 and a group-best Power Rating of 103.19 we’re going to see what we can muster.
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