KA YING RISING dominated with ease in his prep for the Everest, Hong Kong locals had a big showing in the Korea Cup and Sprint, and just like that I dare say we are back in mid-season form in Hong Kong. We’re bouncing back to Happy Valley for some midweek action, and I’ve added a race grade to my selections to help rank my confidence in each race, so let’s get to it and find some winners!
Helpful Resources
Happy Valley – September 10
Past Performances
Speed Pro Pace Projections
Most Likely Winners
Race 1 | #7 WOODFIRE CHAMP – 27.7% Win Prob.
Race 6 | #1 QUANTUM PATCH – 33.9% Win Prob.
Race 7 | #9 FLYING WROTE – 22.8% Win Prob.
Race 8 | #3 SOVERIGN FUND – 51.6% Win Prob.
Race 1 | 1200M | Class 5
Win – #7 WOODFIRE CHAMP
Quinella – 7 w/ 1,3,6,8
Grade: A
Notes: WOODFIRE CHAMP looks like a potential standout in this field but will be up against a tough competitor in SUPER CHARIZZARD who is dropping down from a few tough runs in the Class 4 ranks. The Michael Chang barn got off to a hot start at Sha Tin going 4-2-0-1 on opening day, and my model thinks the hot start is bound to continue. Let’s combine our top pick with the next most likely winners for the Quinella.
Race 2 | 1650M | Class 5
Win – #7 COOL BLUE
Quinella – 3 w/ 1,4,7
Grade: B
Notes: On the opposite side of the scale when it comes to barns, Chris So went 0-for-9 to open the meet but looks to have a potential breakthrough in the newly claimed COOL BLUE. His only win in Hong Kong came at this distance over the Happy Valley turf course, and he gets his lucky mount back for his season debut. My numbers rate this horse as the highest in the field, but not far behind is potential longshot EN PERFECTO at 53/1 on the Morning Line who we’ll key in the Quinella ticket. Play COOL BLUE to win, but let’s see if we can make our week with a big exotic ticket around a big price.
Race 3 | 1000M | Class 4
Win – #4 GRAND NOVA
Grade: C
Notes: John Size runs an impressive operation training in Hong Kong, and I’m going to need him to pull through in one of my more lowly graded races on the card. GRAND NOVA will have to take down the rare 6/5 Morning Line favorite, but my model has this race pointing entirely at my top pick as the clear best in the field. GRAND NOVA will need to make his dash a bit earlier than he did in his last six-furlong outing, but if he gets the right trip I think he’s going to be tough to beat.
Race 4 | 1650M | Class 4
Exacta Box – 1,5
Grade: A
Notes: I’m not claiming to be taking any big swings in this race, but my model points to two clear standouts in GOOD LUCK BABE and MIGHTY STEED. I don’t want to overcomplicate it, I’ll box the two best in the Exacta and hope to get the better payout of the two potential winning combinations.
Race 5 | 1650M | Class 3
Win - #11 SAMARKAND
Quinella – 11 w/ 1,2
Grade: C
Notes: This race was tough to parse as three potential candidates stand out from the rest of the field. Judging on a mix of price and my projections, I landed on SAMARKAND as the best value to win the race and at 12/1 on the Morning Line well worth keying in the Quinella. Karis Teetan gets the call after a few near-wins on opening day, and our bet will be in his hands as he guides our top pick to a hopeful victory.
Race 7 | 1200M | Class 4
Win - #9 FLYING WROTE
Trifecta – 9 w/ 2,11 w/ 1,7
Grade: C
Notes: This race gets a C for me because there isn’t a clear-cut choice according to my numbers. However, I do think this race provides a chance to dabble in the Trifecta pool with my most-likely winner keyed on top. At 5/1, FLYING WROTE isn’t a huge swing, but I’ll play this Tri for more than the $0.20 minimum and hope I make up for a lack in big odds with a bigger stake.
Race 8 | 1200M | Class 3
Win - #3 SOVEREIGN FUND
Exacta – 3 w/ 5,6,12
Trifecta – 3 w/ 5,6,12 w/ 1,2,9
Grade: A
Notes: If you handed me a crisp $100 bill and told me to stake it all on one runner, every penny would go on SOVEREIGN FUND. The numbers love this runner, his recent form before the break has been fantastic, he gets a favorable draw for his stalking style given the two-turn course, and I’m going to follow suit. Let’s play him to win, tack on some potential prices to finish second in the Exacta, and then round out the Tri with some of our shortly priced contenders. If all falls into place, we could capitalize on a ML favorite in a way that pads the bankroll.
Good luck!
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