The illustrious Run for the Roses has come and gone, and the countdown to Preakness is on! In the meantime, a handful of cards from the Pearl of the Orient still decorate the track list and I’m still chasing the tickets to make my day. Let’s take some swings on this Happy Valley Wednesday!
Helpful Resources
Happy Valley – May 7
Past Performances
Speed Pro Pace Projections
Unique Bet Types
SWINGER – Select at least two runners to finish in the top three in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combination
QUINELLA – Select the top two runners in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combination
TRIO – Select the top three runners in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combination
DOUBLE TRIO – Select the top three runners in TWO races in any order
Methodology
Power ratings are calculated by a mix of runner performance versus historical average, quality of the field in each race, weight-based handicaps, and lengths beaten or won. This is how I value past performance of each horse, and it helps me isolate horses worth handicapping further. Then I turn to classic pen-and-paper handicapping to see if there are any plays worth making.
Race 1 | 1650M | Class 5
Win - 6
Notes: 6 – TATTENHAM is in an odd pattern, finishing within striking distance in three of his last four starts that include a try on the all-weather surface at Sha Tin. The power ratings favor 3 – THE KHAN, but only by a half of a point. I find our top choice to be much better suited for the mile distance and fair pace setup we should see. Let’s bet to win.
Race 2 | 1000M | Class 5
Exacta Key Box – 7 w/ 4,12
Notes: There are two short prices in this field that are deserving of taking some money in the Win pool. 4 – RAGNARR and 12 – ACE TALENT are formidable foes in this five furlong dash. The Power Ratings have found a darling at 16/1 in 7 – MODEST GENTLEMAN, so much so that he tops my chart. Looking at the form, I have no reason to think our short prices aren’t firmly in the mix, so we’ll play to crash the board with a price in the exacta.
Race 3 | 2200M | Class 4
Win – 1
Exacta Box – 1,3
Trifecta – 1,3 / 8 / 1,3
Notes: I’ve played this top choice before, and as the name suggests, we CAN’T GO WONG again here. At 15/2 under the guidance of jockey Matthew Poon, 1 – CAN’T GO WONG is primed and ready to go the extra distance in this marathon of a race. His last two outings have needed some extra track, and finally he gets what he wants. Alongside him, I like 3 – SERANGOON at 11/1 who has shown more than enough to get it done going this far. We’ll play for the exacta and split the tri with the ML favorite.
Race 6 | 1200M | Class 4
Win - 3
Notes: Top choice 3 – LOVEISINTHEAIR is the highest rated horse in the Power Ratings, runs for the trainer with the top winning percentage in the field (John Size), gets a top-tier mount in Hugh Bowman, and that’s enough for me to play to win.
Race 7 | 1650M | Class 4
Exacta Key Box – 1 w/ 2,4,5
Quinella Box – 2,4,5
Notes: The strategy for betting this race sort of flies in the face of what I would typically preach, but the situation in this race makes it where a price can be had even if we have to overlap some ideas. 1 – IVY LEAGUE is my top pick and second choice on the morning line at 3/1. I’m anticipating a bit lower odds at post time, but we can play with some prices in the exacta and hopefully turn a big payout. The Power Ratings have three well-priced runners following our top choice, and not by much. For that reason, I want to play a quinella in case it’s bombs away.
Race 8 | 1650M | Class 3
Win – 1
Exacta – 1,10 w/ 1,10,7
Notes: 1 – M UNICORN is firmly my top choice in the Power Ratings, and at 15/2 on the morning line I think he’s well worth a play to win. Next up in the chart is 10 – LUCKY TOUCH at 10/1 with leading jockey Zac Purton in the irons. Not loved by the numbers, but certainly looking good on paper, is morning line favorite 7 – HIGHLAND RAHY (2/1). If my top two Power Ratings choices find their way in first and second, I would regret not playing them together and not listening to my own numbers. We’ll play them together and add the short price for some insurance in the second spot.
Race 9 | 1200M | Class 3
Swinger – 3,4,9,10
Notes: The card’s finale seems open for upsets, but it’s difficult to really decipher a clear standout from the bunch. More than anything, this is a play against the ML favorite 7 – LUCKY PLANET and an opportunity for multiple scores in one ticket. A Swinger requires bettors to pick two of the top three in any order and pays for each correct combination. We’re going to play in hopes of hitting all three top spots and getting paid on numerous combinations, but even if the 6/5 ML favorite runs to expectations we should be able to fill out the trifecta with two of our better choices.
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