Thursday’s Derby Day card at Turf Paradise features five stakes races, including the track’s tradition-rich Phoenix Gold Cup for sprinters. The latter race has produced some of the world’s fastest 6-furlong clockings in its history and always necessitates one eye on the teletimer.
Turf Paradise // Race 5 // $60,000 Cotton Fitzsimmons Stakes
Comments: Favorites win 39% in Turf Paradise turf stakes since the start of 2020, according to Betmix stats. Locally based horses have a 12% win rate in those events, while shippers win at a 19% clip. But locally based high-percentage trainer Justin Evans held down the fort in this race last year with a 17-1 upsetter that spurred a dime superfecta paying $3,402. He’ll send out #7 Prince Lancelot (8-1 ML), a SoCal transplant to his barn whose form was soiled in his Turf Paradise unveiling when running on the main track. He’s back on preferred turf footing. Grade 3 winner #2 War At Sea, third in last year’s Grade 2 Del Mar Derby, will take plenty of action, as will 2022 Jersey Derby winner #3 Futerneventura, last seen in a Keeneland Fall allowance.
The play: Win bet #7 Prince Lancelot.
Turf Paradise // Race 6 // $60,000 Arizona Oaks
Comments: Trainer Peter Miller has run three horses at the current Turf Paradise meeting, posting two wins and a runner-up – winning both dirt races. He’ll send out #7 Madison Rae on the turf-to-dirt surface change via Santa Anita. When last seen on dirt, she won Los Alamitos’ 2-turn mile Soviet Problem Stakes in this same set-up. Jockey Assael Espinoza is 11-for-22 in the exacta in 2-turn dirt routes at the current TuP meeting, according to Betmix stats. She’s the key at a nice 4-1 morning line price, and with a trio of other Santa Anita invaders in the lineup, perhaps the price holds attractively.
The Play: Win bet #7 Madison Rae. Exactas #7 Madison Rae over #1 Pink Whitney and #2 Sakura Blossom.
Turf Paradise // Race 7 // $60,000 Turf Paradise Derby
Comments: The same jockey-trainer combo that we touted in Race 6 is back here with #2 Last Call London, who is drawn beautifully inside and adds blinkers. The King Glorious Stakes winner has SoCal class and will be formidable in the Turf Paradise Derby. Morning line favorite #4 E J Won the Cup has taken on some stout sophomores like Slider, Nysos and Pilot Commander while sprinting, but often failed to finish the deal. He finally graduated in his seventh maiden attempt last time at 30 cents on the dollar when stretching out to a mile, but didn’t do it with any exceptional note. This race comes down to that pair.
The Play: Win bet #2 Last Call London.
Turf Paradise // Race 8 // $60,000 Phoenix Gold Cup
Comments: Easily the best gambling race among the quartet of stakes, and among the best betting races in the country on Thursday, is the 6-furlong Phoenix Gold Cup and its capacity field of 12. #6 Moose Mitchell (12-1 ML) could be excellent value while leaving the Cal-bred stakes ranks and avoiding superstar The Chosen Vron. His form is exceptional when not being matched at the highest levels. #7 Tulane Tryst (pictured above) has back class and now the homefield edge since wintering in Arizona. He blistered 1:07-2/5 in his allowance prep that indicates they better run to beat him if repeated. #1 Principe Carlo won the Mills Stakes here in January in 1:08 and has kept strong SoCal company lines. And while it’s a big class rise, #9 Love My Jimmy (20-1 ML) is in raging form, plenty fast early and goes for a Robertino Diodoro barn that’s highly potent locally.
The Bet: Win bet #6 Moose Mitchell. Exacta key-box #6 Moose Mitchell with #7 Tulane Tryst, #1 Principe Carlo and #9 Love My Jimmy.
Turf Paradise // Race 9 // $60,000 Queen of the Green Stakes
Comments: #3 Yankee Dollar offers inside pace and that's advantaged as this 1-1/16 miles turf race starts on the infield chute and around the elbow, making it virtually 3 turns. Look for #5 Pepper Mill and #8 Stressed also to show early pace and both can be factors on the change in surface and distance, respectively. A bit softer opinion on this race than some of the others, but leaning on Yankee Dollar's stellar 6: 4-1-0 course mark.
The Bet: Win bet #3 Yankee Dollar. Exacta key-box #3 Yankee Dollar with #5 Pepper Mill and #8 Stressed.
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