Jeremy Plonk: King's Plate at Woodbine Analysis | Friday, August 23, 2024

Mother Nature had second thoughts last Saturday about the 165th running of the King's Plate at Woodbine. But North America's oldest race since 1860 -- and Canada's most important -- gets a rescheduled timeslot this Friday. The mile and one-quarter King's Plate will now go as Race 9 of 12 on a card that gets underway at 1:05 pm ET. All 13 runners entered last week are back and post positions remain the same for the $1 million main event.

Here are my horse-by-horse notes.

#1-JOKESTAR: First of 4 Kevin Attard trainees, the Plate Trial fifth-place finish has won just 1 of 8 starts. Flat late at shorter trips and pedigree / style don't suggest 10 furlongs will be beneficial. Jockey Emma-Jayne Wilson won the 2007 Plate.

#2-RAFAROO: Most lightly raced entrant in the field makes his third lifetime start, while still a maiden, but was second in the Plate Trial at 26-1 odds and showed he belonged. Damsire Pleasantly Perfect was a Breeders' Cup Classic winner at the mile and one-quarter trip and there's plenty of ceiling here to improve.

#3-ESSEX SERPENT: Trainer Mark Casse is a 3-time Plate winner, as is jockey Patrick Husbands, and they teamed twice to score this race with Lexie Lou in 2014 and Paramount Prince a year ago. Raced nearly the front throughout in winning the Grade 3 Marine against open company last out, but has pedigree to stay if he can negotiate 8 additional pounds from his last start. Prefer stablemate MY BOY PRINCE, and there's no value in having those run 1-2, so will try to get him out of the ticket.

#4-CAITLINHERGRTNESS: Fillies have captured the late 4 times in the last 10 years, so the Woodbine Oaks runner-up should be respected. Trainer Kevin Attard won this with the filly Moira 2 years ago when teamed with Rafael Hernandez, who seeks a third Plate victory. Filly's last 2 at Woodbine indicate the distance is within reach and she gets a 5-pound weight allowance that helps vs. the boys.

#5-MIDNIGHT MASCOT: Got a solid pace when closing 9 lengths in the Grade 3 Marine for third, but picks up 8 pounds and doesn't project as a 10F type on past races and pedigree. Should be closer to the pace this time and may not have effective late kick for Casse.

#6-FRIENDLY GHOST: Front-running Plate Trial third-place finisher adds another 220 yards to the test after getting away with very easy fractions. Doesn't appear to need the lead, and this improving Outwork gelding has trained well since with room to improve.

#7-MY BOY PRINCE: Morning line favorite could give Mark Casse a fourth King's Plate winner and second straight. He pulled clear late to win the Plate Trial and fired a bullet half-mile local work in his only move since then. His pedigree does not scream mile and one-quarter, the mild concern, but his 6: 5-1-0 Woodbine record and strong third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf last year are marks the others just can't match. Strictly the one to beat and should get a cozy trip.

#8-PIERRE: Late-running allowance performer steps up in class and picks up 7 pounds while making his first stakes bid. But the Tapiture colt for Kevin Attard has raced not only in open company in all 4 races, but against older horses in his last 2 starts. Love the damside route pedigree and this arguably is not the rise in class some think it is.

#9-THOR'S CAUSE: Eight-race maiden was never a threat in last year's Coronation Futurity when last against Canadian foals and remains tough to recommend.

#10-BEDARD: Kevin Attard's 6-race maiden has been in open company exclusively and exits 3 straigth runner-up finishes, the past 2 as favorite. Son of Nyquist should handle the distance on pedigree, but has been flat late in his running lines and picks up 8 pounds.

#11-ROAR OF THE CROWD: Sprinter in all 4 starts makes a wild leap in distance, adding 3-1/2 furlongs off his previous long. He'll also pick up a whopping 12 pounds from his allowance third August 1, and does benefit some in the spacing being extended due to the weather. Factors early, likely not late.

#12-NO MORE OPTIONS: Blinkers come off the 2023 Frost King Stakes winner, who has a turf allowance win amongst 5 starts since then. Never like to see equipment changes in main-event kind of races; that's what the preps are for.  Decent sort gets '20 Plate winner Daisuke Fukomoto in the irons, but prefer others.

#13-VITALITY: It took this Street Boss gelding 7 starts to break his maiden, finally doing so July 19 when adding Lasix for the first time. Gets to run on Lasix again Saturday, but picks up 8 pounds while having to overcome a wide draw. Closing style and long run to the clubhouse turn likely negate the latter concern, but others appear better.


Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$60 Exacta: MY BOY PRINCE with PIERRE ($60)
$20 Exacta Part-Wheel: MY BOY PRINCE with RAFAROO and CAITLINHERGRTNESS ($40)

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