Jeremy Plonk: Kentucky Downs Today | Thursday, August 31, 2023

First Post:

1:30 pm ET

Extra Juice:

$10 Money-Back Special on all races. Up to $10 back if your win bet finishes 2nd, 3rd when you play with Xpressbet or 1/ST BET

Featured Races:

Race 9 – $500,000 Tapit Stakes

Betmix Stat of the Day:

Favorites have won 28.7% of the 300 races at Kentucky Downs over the past five years. By race class, it’s 31% in maiden races, 27% in allowance races and 27% in stakes races. Notable trainers with favorites include Kenny McPeek (4-4, 100%), Shug McGaughey (4-9, 44%) and Wesley Ward (11-28, 39%). Top jockeys on favorites include Brian Hernandez Jr. (4-7, 57%), Julien Leparoux (12-23, 52%) and Jose Ortiz (18-43, 42%).

Jeremy’s Best Bets:

Race 3 (2:34 pm ET)
#8 Shad Nation (6-1 ML)
One of five winners sired by Cairo Prince at Kentucky Downs over the past two seasons, he returns to the scene of his best score. Late trouble in last at Belmont did not impact his placing as he was already tiring, but did exaggerate the losing margin. Leparoux has more wins here than any active jockey and his struggles at Saratoga, ripe in the mind of horseplayers right now, could help inflate the price.


Race 4 (3:06 pm ET)
#4 Static Fire (6-1 ML)
Trainer Brian Lynch exceptional with bringing turf sprinters to KD at this trip over the years, winning 6 of 14 with a $3.00 return for every $1 bet. Static Fire has been off since December, but note the pair of fresh starts to his form cycle prior: a career debut win at Saratoga in 2021 and a 2022 season-opening win at Churchill Downs. He fires fresh.


Race 5 (3:41 pm ET)
#9 Metallurgic (15-1 ML)
We’ll go back to positive Kentucky Downs sire Cairo Prince for this price play, as mentioned earlier responsible for 5 winners here the past two seasons. After two sprints, including a very fast pace last time in hot pursuit, he stretches out and could catch this group flat-footed under hustling early turf pilot Florent Geroux. Trainer Maker dominates the turf miles locally with 22 wins (no other active barn has more than 7). Saratoga shippers have been highly successful here in maidens, maiden miles and for Maker.

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