Jeremy Plonk: Kentucky Downs Today | Saturday, September 9, 2023

First Post:
12:30 pm ET

Extra Juice:

$10 Money-Back Special on all races. Up to $10 back if your win bet finishes 2nd, 3rd when you play with Xpressbet or 1/ST BET

Featured Races:

Race 3 – $1 million Ladies Marathon
Race 8 – $1 million Franklin-Simpson Stakes
Race 9 – $1 million Ladies Turf
Race 10 – $1 million Turf Sprint
Race 11 – $1 million Ladies Turf Sprint
Race 12 – $1.7 million Kentucky Turf Cup

Betmix Stat of the Day:

With three turf sprint stakes on the card, note that 23 turf sprint stakes have been held at the track since 2019 with just 5 winning favorites (22%) and an average winner at 7-1 odds. Notable turf sprint stakes-winning trainers include Rusty Arnold (3-8), Brendan Walsh (3-11) and Brian Lynch (2-5). Tyler Gaffalione leads the turf sprint stakes jockeys (6-26, 23%).

Jeremy’s Best Bets:

Race 9 (5:16 pm ET)
#5 Henrietta Topham (12-1 ML)

A close-up fourth in this race last year at 12-1 odds vs. what appears to be a much stronger race overall than this year’s lineup. Legitimate excuses in her last two – terribly slow pace at Indianapolis and traffic issues at Ellis – bring you back to her win at Churchill over White Forest, who is the 8-5 morning line favorite Saturday. Take the value and solid prior run over this tricky course.

//

Race 10 (5:54 pm ET)
#12 Dr Zempf (6-1 ML)

In a race absolutely loaded with early speed, counting on the finishers to get the final say. Fourth in Jaipur was stronger than it looks chasing Caravel, Big Invasion and Casa Creed, any of which would be favored in this spot. This was a legitimate Group 1 sprinter in Europe and should be perfectly suited for Kentucky Downs’ sprint trip.

continue reading