Fierceness, record-setting winner of the Florida Derby by 13-1/2 lengths, is the 5-2 morning line favorite for the historic 150th running of the Kentucky Derby. And if he’s to win, he could be the first ever to do so from post position 17, the only starting spot never to wear the roses. Last year’s Champion 2-Year-Old topped a field of 20 that was entered Saturday at Churchill Downs, including a pair of alternate, also-eligible contenders in the event of any race-week defections.
The post-time favorite has won the Kentucky Derby 10 times since 2000, the last being Justify in 2018. Twelve straight favorites have finished in the top-4 of the Run for the Roses. Sierra Leone (post 2), winner of this year’s Blue Grass at Keeneland and Risen Star at Fair Grounds, is the 3-1 second choice in the morning line as set by track oddsmaker Mike Battaglia. He has authored the Derby morning line every year since 1974. Post 2 hasn’t won a Derby since Triple Crown winner Affirmed in 1978.
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Despite the statistical anomaly of no winner from post 17 in Derby history, Fierceness arguably is drawn beautifully as he is poised outside of the other early speed horses in the field. He has a string of horses immediately to his inside that he has more natural early pace than and can begin to clear and cross over the field until landing position into the clubhouse turn about 5/16ths of a mile after the start. The Brad Cox-trained pair of Just A Touch and Encino in posts 8 and 9 would appear to be winners at the draw with their tactical speed. Their only danger is being directly inside the pair of Japanese raiders, T O Password (10) and Forever Young (11), given the history of international runners’ struggles to leave cleanly at the start of American races.
The known commodities to the early pace are the favorite Fierceness as well as consistent front-runner Track Phantom (post 12). Fierceness jockey John Velazquez has 4 Derby wins, 3 of them essentially right to the front throughout.
The wildcards to how fast or slow the early tempo may be figure to be lightly raced Japanese raider TO Password, who showed early speed in his two victories at home vs. lesser competition, and front-running Remsen and Fountain of Youth winner Dornoch, whose connections have tried to teach him to rate off the engine in the Blue Grass and subsequent workouts. But Dornoch, full brother to last year’s Derby winner Mage, drew the 1-post and almost certainly now must exert himself early under Luis Saez and quicken the overall tempo to avoid the cavalry charge that will converge toward the rail through the stretch the first time.
Sierra Leone in post 2 either will be in receipt of heavy doses of kickback near the rear of the field or change his tactical style to be a bit more forwardly placed, neither of which is a positive development.
Alternates on the also-eligible list are Epic Ride and Mugatu, who only compete in the event one or more runners scratch from the field by 9 a.m. Friday. That’s the manner in which 2022 Kentucky Derby upset winner Rich Strike eventually found himself in the field.
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$5 million Grade 1 Kentucky Derby // Saturday // Churchill Downs // Post Time 6:57 pm ET US // Race 12
1. Dornoch (Danny Gargan / Luis Saez) 20-1
2. Sierra Leone (Chad Brown / Tyler Gaffalione) 3-1
3. Mystik Dan (Kenny McPeek / Brian Hernandez Jr.) 20-1
4. Catching Freedom (Brad Cox / Flavien Prat) 8-1
5. Catalytic (Saffie Joseph Jr. / Jose Ortiz) 30-1
6. Just Steel (D. Wayne Lukas / Keith Asmussen) 20-1
7. Honor Marie (Whit Beckman / Ben Curtis) 20-1
8. Just A Touch (Brad Cox / Florent Geroux) 10-1
9. Encino (Brad Cox / Axel Concepcion) 20-1
10. T O Password (Daisuke Takayanagi / Kazushi Kimura) 30-1
11. Forever Young (Yoshito Yahagi / Ryusei Sakai) 10-1
12. Track Phantom (Steve Asmussen / Joel Rosario) 20-1
13. West Saratoga (Larry Demeritte / Jesus Castanon ) 50-1
14. Endlessly (Michael McCarthy / Umberto Rispoli) 30-1
15. Domestic Product (Chad Brown / Irad Ortiz Jr.) 30-1
16. Grand Mo the First (Victor Barbosa Jr. / Emisael Jaramillo) 50-1
17. Fierceness (Todd Pletcher / John Velazquez) 5-2
18. Stronghold (Phil D’Amato / Antonio Fresu) 20-1
19. Resilience (Bill Mott / Junior Alvarado) 20-1
20. Society Man (Danny Gargan / Frankie Dettori) 50-1
21. (AE) Epic Ride (John Ennis / Adam Beschizza) 50-1
22. (AE) Mugatu (Jeff Engler / Joe Talamo) 50-1
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