Keeneland opens its Spring Meet Friday with a couple of betting menu twists. I’ll focus on an old favorite here, the late pick 4. But also note wagering minimums have increased in the superfecta (now $0.50) and pick 3 (now $1), while the day’s final 3 races each card will comprise a $3 minimum late pick 3, piggybacking the popularity of the track’s $3 Keeneland Turf Pick 3 from recent seasons, which also continues this Spring.
Let’s get to work.
Race 7: Beaumont Stakes
#2 Just Bluffing steps up in class but looks fastest early off a pair of 6-furlong efforts. This stakes has been dominated by those adding distance and those near the front throughout its decade back on dirt – plus, Luis Saez is a maestro in 7-furlong sprints at Keeneland. Morning line favorite #3 Sneaky Good would be no surprise for a Brad Cox-Flavien Prat tandem that’s won 3 of the last 4 editions of the Beaumont.
Race 8: Transylvania Stakes
In a stakes where seasonal debuts have found the winner’s circle 7 times in the last 16 years, don’t be afraid of a come-backer. Well-drawn #3 Noble Dynasty really interests me for Bill Mott. His juvenile BRIS late pace figures are better than anything in this race has run this year going long on grass and it’s a field with floundering finishers. Love the 8-1 morning line price in a stakes in which favorites have lost 9 of the last 10 and 6 straight. Will make a gutsy single here, and if we’re right, we separate if able to beat one of the big favorites in the races surrounding this. Zig when they zag.
Race 9: Ashland Stakes
Crazy results are common in the Ashland over the past decade, so 4-5 morning line favorite #3 Zany may look best on paper, but few things are certain in this pitfall race. #4 French Fiction (9-2 ML) has pedigree to route and love Keeneland, speed to win twice easily sprinting at Oaklawn and a trainer in Mark Casse who upset this race at 9-1 last year. Upsets abound in the Ashland with 6 winners at 9-1 or more (average 15-1) in the last 10 spring editions on dirt. I respect Zany, but this is how we get an expanded return in the late pick 4 if we can nail this minor upsetter.
Race 10: maiden special weight
Outstanding depth to this race, and by not singling or adding cost by including short prices in other legs, we can spread our wings in this race. If we’re live to the finale, we’ll be sitting pretty with a limited investment This is a “bet a little to make a lot” ticket today. #9 Drop Shot (20-1 morning line) is my upset top pick and I’ll feather in a lengthy group of others behind him at minimal cost (just $1 per horse).
The Ticket:
2,3 with 3 with 4 with 9,5,10,2,1,4,10,12,3 = $9 for each $0.50.
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